Surveys

Retail Sales to Grow About 4 Percent This Year, NRF Says

SurveysFeb 12, 2018

Retail Sales to Grow About 4 Percent This Year, NRF Says

Online and non-store sales, meanwhile, should increase between 10 and 12 percent.

2017_Online-shopping.jpg
The NRF said 2018 retail sales will grow between 3.8 and 4.4 percent over last year, which includes a 10-12 percent increase in online and other non-store sales.

Washington--The National Retail Federation has released its growth predictions for the year ahead, and they’re slightly higher than last year’s figures.

Overall retail industry sales are expected to increase between 3.8 and 4.4 percent. Included in this number are online and all types of non-store sales, which should see a 10 to 12 percent increase over last year.

Last year, the NRF predicted retail sales would increase between 3.2 and 3.8 percent. While subject to revision, the U.S. Census Bureau’s preliminary analysis of 2017 shows that an increase slightly higher at 3.9 percent over 2016 to $3.53 trillion.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay noted that a strong holiday season is one indicator of a positive year ahead.

“A robust holiday season for retail sales is just one of many barometers that points to a consumer who is clearly feeling positive about their financial health,” he said.

“Despite headlines to the contrary, the retail industry is strong, growing and meeting consumer demand with the products they want at the prices they expect and the shopping experience they want to have, online or in store. With consumer confidence high, unemployment low and wages growing, there is every reason to believe that retail sales will be robust throughout the year.”

When National Jeweler spoke with retailers during the holiday season, several thought that a positive economic outlook, due in part to a booming stock market, was responsible for a healthy holiday season.

Last week, however, the stock market showed great volatility, trading “about 20,000 points back and forth in a roughly 2,000-point trading range,” according to an analysis by CNBC. The week was feared to be the worst for the stock market since the 2008 financial crisis, but narrowly avoided it.

Any ongoing volatility in the year ahead is likely to have a negative impact on growth.

But the NRF is also predicting positive gains for unemployment in 2018, another essential aspect of the U.S. economy.

Jobs are expected to increase by 163,000 a month this year, slightly down from last year but in line with labor market growth, and unemployment is predicted to decrease by 3.9 percent by the end of 2018.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “The underpinnings of the economy are very good and consumer spending is at the center of our outlook. The push and pull of forces both external and internal to the U.S. economy
will continue to provide challenges, but on balance we expect a good year. And as the retail industry continues to transform, retailers will leverage the new tax plan to invest in their employees, stores and new formats that engage with the ever-evolving and demanding consumer.”

Though online and non-store sales are predicted to increase more than in-store sales, TD Bank’s Retail Experience Index recently affirmed that the in-store buying experience for fine jewelry remains essential.

In a recent survey of 1,021 consumers, the financial institution found that 47 percent of jewelry shoppers spent one to two hours in a jewelry store on average before making a major purchase and tended to visit three to four different stores.

Underscoring the importance of reaching consumers via multiple channels of sale, 47 percent of these shoppers spent three to six hours researching online. Ultimately, 54 percent of customers ended up buying in-store, 34 percent online and 10 percent through a retailer’s app. 

Jewelry shoppers also continue to be repeat purchasers. Seventy-eight percent of the shoppers who had spent $500 or more in the last year said they were “very” or “extremely likely” to make another significant purchase in the next six months, indicating that they are likely turning to fine jewelry purchases for occasions, like birthdays and holidays.

TD Bank said that all of this data highlights the importance of the in-store experience, as 60 percent of shoppers said that knowledgeable sales associates are “very important” to deciding where to shop and 69 percent of them sought help from an associate during their last jewelry store purchase.

Seventy-nine percent of those surveyed said the sales associate was influential in deciding their ultimate purchase.
Ashley Davisis the senior editor, fashion at National Jeweler, covering all things related to design, style and trends.

The Latest

2025 National Jeweler Retailer Hall of Fame inductees
Events & AwardsJun 06, 2025
Here Are the 2025 Retailer Hall of Fame Inductees

This year’s honorees include a Midwest retailer and two multi-store independents, one in New York and the other in New England.

Harwell Godfrey Granny Square Eleanor Necklace
CollectionsJun 06, 2025
Piece of the Week: Harwell Godfrey’s ‘Granny Squares Eleanor’ Necklace

As an homage to iconic crochet blankets, the necklace features the nostalgic motif through a kaleidoscope of cabochon-cut stones.

 Laura Gallon Joaillerie “Dynasty” ring, Bijules “Compass” bolo tie, Löf “The Orbitalis” ring
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
The 12 Fresh Faces in Couture’s Design Atelier

Discover the dozen up-and-coming brands exhibiting in the Design Atelier for the first time.

DCA-student-cert-NJ1872x1052-2.png
Brought to you by
The True Power Behind the Counter: Why Sales Associates Are the Heart of the Jewelry Business

When investing in your jewelry business, it's important not to overlook the most crucial element of success: the sales associates.

Jack Abraham The Royal Ruby Collection
SourcingJun 05, 2025
A Rare Suite of Rubies Has Arrived in Las Vegas

The “Royal Ruby” Collection is a quintet of untreated rubies curated by collector Jack Abraham.

Weekly QuizJun 05, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Daymond John
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Daymond John to Give Keynote at JCK Las Vegas

The entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.

Vaishali Banerjee and Pallavi Sharma
MajorsJun 05, 2025
Platinum Guild International Updates Leadership Team

Two existing executives have been given new roles.

Article Image 1.png
Brought to you by
Clienteling Isn’t a Buzzword. It’s an Essential Business Model.

More shoppers are walking out without buying. Here’s how smart jewelers can bring them back—and the tool they need to do it right.

Meredith Tiderington
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Zillion Announces 'Women in STEM' Scholarship Recipient

Meredith Tiderington, an electrical engineering student, was selected for the award.

The Gemological Institute of America’s logo
Lab-GrownJun 04, 2025
GIA Reverting to More General Terminology for Lab-Grown Diamonds

It will quit assigning the stones specific color and clarity grades in favor of applying “new descriptive terminology.”

Exterior of the Venetian and the Las Vegas Sphere
Events & AwardsJun 04, 2025
As JCK Talks Returns, Don’t Miss These 12 Sessions

From design trends to sustainability, here’s a roundup of can’t-miss education sessions at JCK Las Vegas.

JCK show
CrimeJun 04, 2025
10 Safety Tips for the Las Vegas Shows

The Jewelers’ Security Alliance offers advice for those attending the annual trade shows.

Amy Curran
MajorsJun 04, 2025
Amy Curran Promoted at Hill & Co.

Her new role is director of strategic initiatives.

The eight rings in Viviana Langhoff’s AU79 jewelry collection
CollectionsJun 03, 2025
In Her Latest Collection, Viviana Langhoff Is Leaning Into Gold

The designer is embracing bold pieces with weight to them in “AU79,” a collection she celebrated with a creative launch party.

Gold and diamond bangles on a pair of jeans
FinancialsJun 03, 2025
Signet Jewelers Sees Turnaround in Q1 With Sales Ticking Up 2%

On an earnings call, CEO J.K. Symancyk discussed what’s working for the company and how it’s preparing for the potential impact of tariffs.

Dakota Johnson as Roberto Coin Brand Ambassador
CollectionsJun 03, 2025
Dakota Johnson Is Roberto Coin’s New Brand Ambassador

The actress stars in the latest campaign set in Venice, Italy, and is set to participate in other creative initiatives for the jeweler.

Mason Kay Jade necklace
GradingJun 03, 2025
Mason-Kay Jade Adds ‘Fei Cui’ to Jade Reports

The company has joined other labs, including GIA and Lotus Gemology, in adopting the Chinese term for "jadeite jade."

Gemfields ruby
SourcingJun 02, 2025
Gemfields’ June Auction to Include 36-Carat Ruby

The large stone will be offered at its June sale along with a selection of secondary-type rubies from a new area of the Montepuez mine.

Adobe Stock image of skyline of Bangkok, Thailand
GradingJun 02, 2025
GSI Opens New Lab in Thailand

Located in Bangkok, the laboratory is Gemological Science International’s 14th location worldwide.

Seaman Schepps pearl earrings
TrendsJun 02, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Three Gems for June

Those born in June have a myriad of options for their birthstone jewelry.

David Allouche
SourcingJun 02, 2025
David Allouche Joins Grandview Klein Diamonds

The diamond industry veteran has been named its senior sales executive.

Movado Connect 2.0 watches
FinancialsMay 30, 2025
Movado’s Q1 Sales Slip Amid ‘Challenging’ Retail Environment

The company plans to raise the prices of select watches to offset the impact of tariffs.

Zoë Chicco Bracelets
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Tariffs & Designers: Navigating Pricing in an Unstable Environment

Between tariffs and the sky-high cost of gold, designers enter this year’s Las Vegas shows with a lot of questions and few answers.

Renato Cipullo Hematite Blaze Necklace
CollectionsMay 30, 2025
Piece of the Week: Renato Cipullo’s ‘Hematite Blaze’ Necklace

Designed by founder Renato and his daughter Serena Cipullo, it showcases a flame motif representing unity and the power of gathering.

Stock image of shipping containers
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Trade Court Declares Trump’s Tariffs Invalid

However, the tariffs remain in effect in the short term, as an appeals court has stayed the U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision.

Britney Spears
CollectionsMay 29, 2025
Britney Spears Files Trademark for New Jewelry Line

The pop icon is one step closer to launching her “B Tiny” jewelry collection, a collection she first began posting about last fall.

Inoveo Platinum Grain image.jpg
Supplier BulletinMay 29, 2025
Inoveo Platinum Grain, Exclusively Distributed by Stuller

Sponsored by Stuller

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy