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Moody’s Predicts ‘Stable’ 2017 for Retail
The apparel and footwear industries won’t be top priority for consumers, but a strong dollar and streamlined inventory will boost the sector for overall better sales than last year.
New York--Ratings firm Moody’s has predicted a stable 2017 for the retail sector.
According to a report from the company, retail sales are expected to grow 3 to 4 percent and operating income is expected to grow 4 to 5 percent, with the home improvement, specialty and dollar store sectors expected to exceed 5 percent growth.
“Dollar stores will be among the top performers in 2017, as cash-strapped consumers look to save money on multiple fronts,” said Mickey Chadha, a Moody’s vice president--senior credit officer.
“Home improvement stores such as Home Depot and Lowe’s will benefit from the continuing robust recovery of the housing market, and the subsiding deflationary pressure on supermarkets in 2017 should result in the sub-sector outperforming the broader retail industry.”
The apparel and footwear sectors of the retail industry are expected to remain stable overall.
Consumer spending is expected to be concentrated on rent, health care, home-related products, electronics and cars rather than apparel and footwear. However, good foreign exchanges rates for Americans and less excess inventory in 2017 should allow operating profit to increase to 5 to 7 percent.
Increased direct-to-consumer and international sales will increase overall sales by 6 to 8 percent.
Department stores, however, will continue to face pressures due to lower foot traffic and competition.
Discounters and warehouses, meanwhile, are expected to experience a 2 to 3 percent decline in operating income. Walmart accounts for 75 percent of the discounter and warehouse category and increased employee wages and company investments will be responsible for less overall profits for the mega-retailer, Moody’s said.
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