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NRF: Retail sales will increase 4 percent this year
The National Retail Federation predicts that economic growth and lower unemployment rates will help retail industry sales climb 4 percent in 2015, a very slight improvement over last year.
Washington--With continued economic growth and a reduction in unemployment expected by year’s end, the National Retail Federation predicts that retail industry sales will climb 4 percent in 2015, up from the 3.5 percent growth seen last year.
This would be the largest annual growth seen since 2011, when retail sales were up 5 percent. NRF also said it expects non-store sales to grow between 7 and 10 percent this year.
Additionally, the NRF reported that retail sales in January, excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, were up 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month, and 3.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year, confirming holiday growth of 4 percent.
Other economic insights that the company offered for the year include the following:
--GDP growth is expected to range from 2.7 to 3.2 percent;
--Growth in the labor market is predicted to average between 220,000 and 230,000 new jobs per month;
--Unemployment could drop to 5 percent by the end of 2015; and
--Gains in equities and housing have boosted net worth to record levels this year, helping consumer confidence about household spending.
But even with the strong start to 2015 and positive outlook for the year ahead, the NRF remains cautious.
“While our outlook for the year ahead is positive, we aren’t quite out of the woods; in order to see continued momentum we need a commitment from our leaders in Washington to pass legislation that will encourage investment, create jobs and set us on the path towards sustained, long-term economic growth,” President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
The company added that a few “wild cards” that retailers need to keep an eye on include global economic growth, energy prices and inflation.
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