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Consumer Confidence Falls to 12-Year Low in September
Those surveyed were worried about the present and the future, with write-in responses mentioning high oil and gas prices.
U.S. consumer confidence fell again this month, according to The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index, which decreased to 81.9 in September from a downwardly revised 88.6 in August.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence fell again in September with consumers concerned about the present and the future amid high gas prices.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 81.9 in September from a downwardly revised 88.6 in August.
It marks the lowest reading since 2014, according to the Wall Street Journal, and was well below economists' forecast of 89.
The results could spell trouble for the holiday season, said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, to the WSJ.
“Americans feel jobs are more scarce and are pulling back on plans for homes, cars, and big-ticket purchases, emitting a warning sign for holiday spending even though layoffs data show employers aren’t yet cutting workers to match the gloom,” he said.
The survey period ran from Sept. 1-23, which included a federal funds rate hike as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions.
“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 109.3 from a downwardly revised 117.2 in August.
Views on the current labor market softened, while views on current business conditions were also more pessimistic this month, with the decline driven by more consumers reporting that business conditions are “bad.”
Respondents weren’t feeling much better about future conditions.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 63.6 from an upwardly revised 69.5 in August.
All three components of the Expectations Index fell, with appraisals of current business conditions dropping into the negatives for the first time since September 2024.
It marked the index's third consecutive monthly decline and the 20th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Consumers’ write-in responses about factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September, said Peterson.
“References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs,” she said.
“Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.”
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The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 81.9 in September from a downwardly revised 88.6 in August.
It marks the lowest reading since 2014, according to the Wall Street Journal, and was well below economists' forecast of 89.
The results could spell trouble for the holiday season, said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, to the WSJ.
“Americans feel jobs are more scarce and are pulling back on plans for homes, cars, and big-ticket purchases, emitting a warning sign for holiday spending even though layoffs data show employers aren’t yet cutting workers to match the gloom,” he said.
The survey period ran from Sept. 1-23, which included a federal funds rate hike as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions.
“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 109.3 from a downwardly revised 117.2 in August.
Views on the current labor market softened, while views on current business conditions were also more pessimistic this month, with the decline driven by more consumers reporting that business conditions are “bad.”
Respondents weren’t feeling much better about future conditions.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, fell to 63.6 from an upwardly revised 69.5 in August.
All three components of the Expectations Index fell, with appraisals of current business conditions dropping into the negatives for the first time since September 2024.
It marked the index's third consecutive monthly decline and the 20th consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
Consumers’ write-in responses about factors affecting the economy were mostly pessimistic in September, said Peterson.
“References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs,” she said.
“Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated. Consumers also frequently cited politics, trade, and employment in their write-in responses, though to a lesser extent.”
By demographic, confidence for consumers of all ages and nearly all income groups declined on a six-month moving average basis.
Though higher-income groups were still generally more optimistic, those with a household income of $125,000 to $149,000 posted the greatest decline in confidence over the last six months.
By generation, confidence for Gen Z remained the highest, followed by millennials.
Confidence among Generation X, baby boomers, and Silent Generation consumers continued to decline.
By political affiliation, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents also saw confidence decline.
Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations rose slightly in September.
A majority of respondents (68 percent) expect to see higher interest rates over the next 12 months, up from 63 percent in August.
Consumers also still expect higher stock prices a year from now, though that optimism moderated in September.
Respondents’ view of their Family’s Current Financial Situation turned negative this month, with the number of consumers stating their finances were “bad” overtaking those who said they were “good” for the second time since the question was introduced four years ago.
Views of their Family’s Future Financial Situation over the next six months were also slightly less optimistic.
Those who believe a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat likely” rose while those who believe recession is “not likely” declined.
These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index.
Looking at spending, plans to purchase cars and homes both declined slightly in September.
The most popular items in the durable goods category remained furniture and smartphones, while plans to buy refrigerators and TVs fell on a six-month moving average basis. Plans to buy other durable goods moderated slightly.
The top five services consumers plan to spend money on included restaurants, bars, and take-out; streaming, internet, and mobile services; beauty and personal care; utilities; and health care.
“Beyond the top five, consumers preferred to spend on cheap thrills and necessities,” noted the Conference Board.
Anticipated spending for several discretionary activities moderated, including hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare, and amusement parks.
Household maintenance, financial services, and historical sites and museums saw slight increases in planned spending.
However, plans to spend on a vacation stayed strong, with 43 percent of consumers planning a vacation in the next six months, up slightly month-over-month.
This slight increase was limited to domestic travel, with plans to travel abroad slipping this month.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for October are scheduled to be released on Oct. 27.
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