National Jeweler distilled five takeaways from numerous holiday surveys and reports to highlight what retailers need to know about consumers heading into the holiday season.
New York—As the holiday season approaches, retailers will need to work to draw in shoppers amid high prices and lackluster consumer sentiment.
Few will skip out on the seasonal festivities, but many are working with a limited budget, as the higher cost of gas, groceries, and everything else eats away at their paychecks.
Holiday retail sales in the United States are expected to increase year-over-year in 2026, as per various forecasts, but that increase likely will have more to do with inflation than a surge of holiday cheer.
Higher-income houses will have more to spare, buoyed by a strong stock market, while lower-income households grapple with the prices of everyday items.
Still, everyone loves a deal and shopping holidays, like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, will remain popular days to buy gifts.
Here are five takeaways about this holiday season, based on surveys and reports by the National Retail Federation, Adobe, Mastercard, and Bain & Co., with additional insights shared by YouGov.
Here are the holiday sales forecasts by the numbers.
NRF’s annual holiday forecast predicts holiday retail sales will grow 4.2 percent year-over-year to $1.013 trillion.
Last year, holiday sales were up 3.1 percent to $972 billion.
“There’s no doubt that [inflation] is contributing to our nominal sales growth,” NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said on a media call last month.
Only about half of the increase will stem from real consumer spending growth, he said.
The Mastercard Economics Institute’s annual holiday forecast is a bit more optimistic.
U.S. retail sales are expected to increase 5.5 percent year-over-year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, marking the strongest holiday growth since 2022.
Similarly, Mastercard’s survey estimated that about half the growth in spending will be due to higher prices, not more consumers spending more money.
Bain was somewhere in between, forecasting growth of 4.5 percent, with sales expected to reach $1.016 trillion.
Adobe’s survey focuses solely on e-commerce sales from Nov. 1-Dec. 31.
Online holiday sales in the U.S. are expected to reach $275.1 billion, said Adobe, up 6.7 percent year-over-year.
A graphic by Adobe Analytics outlining online holiday spending over the years
Mastercard is even more optimistic about e-commerce, expecting online sales to grow 11 percent year-over-year, while Bain expects to see 9 percent growth in non-store sales.
AI will be a virtual elf this holiday season.
For those trying to stick to a budget and still buy the perfect gifts, AI tools can simplify the process.
Agentic commerce, meaning when AI agents do the research and shopping with minimal human input, is growing in popularity, said Mastercard, giving shoppers new ways to discover products, compare options, and find value.
Mastercard’s survey looked at the spending trends for “AI power users,” shoppers with paid AI subscriptions, and found that these consumers spend across a wider array of merchants, including smaller and boutique retailers.
They also tend to shop earlier, with a larger share of their 2025 dollars spent before Thanksgiving compared with non-AI users, particularly in jewelry, travel, and clothing.
“As AI tools provide more ways to discover options and identify value, that increased variety and choice could become an increasingly important feature of the holiday shopping journey,” Mastercard said.
Adobe first noted the uptick in consumers using AI tools for online shopping in 2024.
This year, Adobe expects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites to be up 130 percent year-over-year, with the biggest uptick on Thanksgiving (up 159 percent), followed by Black Friday (up 95 percent) and Cyber Monday (up 88 percent).
In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, 77 percent of those who have used AI for online shopping said they feel more confident in their purchase, and 69 percent say they’re less likely to return an item they bought.
According to Bain’s survey, Amazon is the most popular spot (71 percent) to begin online holiday shopping, but 24 percent of respondents said they’ll start with a generative AI platform, like ChatGPT, Claude, or Google Gemini.
Thirteen percent of online shoppers said they plan to use a retailer’s own AI shopping agent, like Walmart’s Sparky or Amazon’s Alexa for Shopping.
“AI’s biggest role during Black Friday and Cyber Monday is likely to be helping shoppers do the research rather than doing the shopping for them,” a spokesperson for YouGov said.
YouGov found that only 5 percent of those surveyed were comfortable letting AI complete an approved purchase.
“For now, shoppers appear to want AI as an assistant while keeping control of the final decision.”
These are the bright spots and the headwinds to consider.
Retail sales have done well this year, but macroeconomic uncertainty could tip the scales either way this holiday season, said Bain.
An NRF survey found that 56 percent of shoppers said the economy will have an impact on holiday plans, the highest rate since 2011, while 64 percent said they expect higher prices specifically due to tariffs.
The bright spots include a strong consumer that continues to spend despite it all. Retail sales were up 5 percent year-over-year as of July, said Bain.
American consumers also received higher tax refunds overall this year, up 17 percent year-over-year. However, Bank of America estimates about half of that money has been spent on gas.
Shoppers also will benefit from some retailers lowering prices, said Bain, noting several retailers plan to pass tariff refunds along to shoppers. Lower prices could boost traffic this season.
However, there are some headwinds to consider, Bain noted.
Consumers’ outlook has been lackluster this year, lower than this time last year, bogged down by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.
High gas prices are eating up household budgets.
The labor market is also soft, said Bain. While the unemployment rate remains stable, labor force participation has fallen to a five-year low due to aging demographics, slower immigration, and weaker labor demand.
The Bain report stressed the financial strain on consumers, noting the falling personal savings rate and credit card delinquencies that are above the 10-year average.
Lower-income households received around $1 billion less in SNAP benefits this May compared with last year.
As shoppers’ budgets tighten, YouGov said it’s “seeing more caution than a broad pullback in Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending.”
Forty percent of shoppers said they expect to spend about the same as last year, while 17 percent expect to spend less and 15 percent expect to spend more.
A “sizeable” 28 percent were still unsure, which YouGov said suggested many shoppers had not yet settled on their Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending plans.
Related stories will be right here …
This is when, where, and how we’re shopping this season.
AI-savvy shoppers aren’t the only ones checking things off their list early.
Amazon’s Prime Day event in October, an annual tradition since 2022, has been driving holiday spending well ahead of the holiday season, noted Adobe.
Adobe estimated $95.8 billion was spent online in October, up 8 percent year-over-year. Nearly $10 billion (estimated) was forecast to be spent during the two-day Prime Day event.
“This has changed the shape of the holiday season, pushing U.S. retailers to manage promotions and inventory effectively to capture an additional pre-season spike in shopping interest,” Adobe said.
Interestingly, YouGov conducted a survey in September and found that more Americans viewed Prime Day deals in early October as having better deals than Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
“While our polling found that the reasons for shopping differed for these October events from why people usually shop Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the value perception gap could impact the specific shopping days,” a YouGov spokesperson said.
(A list of the 10 days that are expected to be most popular for in-store shopping can be found here.)
Notably, shoppers will have less than a month between Thanksgiving and Christmas again this year, with Thanksgiving falling on Nov. 26, which will prompt retailers to begin promotions earlier.
Cyber Monday lands in November this year, making it an especially important month for retailers.
While many consumers plan ahead, there are always last-minute shoppers.
Mastercard said that in 2025, 35 percent of in-store spending on jewelry, handbags, department stores, and cosmetics occurred in the final week before Christmas.
Across online and in-store purchases in those same categories, average purchase value rose every day beginning Dec. 15 and peaked on Christmas Eve.
Malls are especially important to procrastinators. More than 6 percent of annual spending at U.S. shopping malls occurs during the week before Christmas, said Mastercard, about double the share spent at “gift-oriented” retailers outside of malls.
As for where people are shopping, a Bain survey found that 40 percent of respondents plan to shop both in-store and online equally.
The second-most popular answer was “most online” at 24 percent, followed by “most in-store” (13 percent), “all in-store” (12 percent), and “all online” at 10 percent.
Mastercard is forecasting in-store sales growth of 3.6 percent, marking “the strongest showing for physical retail in four years, a sign that stores are holding their ground even as digital continues to scale.”
The NRF outlined holiday gift preferences by generation in a media call last week.
For millennials, Gen Z, and baby boomers, the top three categories were (not in order) gift cards, clothing and accessories, and books, media, and games.
Gen X, meanwhile, was eyeing personal care and beauty items alongside gift cards and clothing and accessories.
Jewelry and accessories landed in the bottom three for millennials and baby boomers, with 24 percent of millennials and 11 percent of baby boomers hoping to receive jewelry and accessories as a gift this year.
Discounts aren’t the only way to stand out.
Though nearly everyone will be in search of a deal this holiday season, deep discounts aren’t the only way to grab shoppers’ attention.
Retailers should emphasize what can’t be cross-shopped, Bain said.
“When everyone carries the same SKU, price quickly becomes a race to the bottom. Differentiation will come from exclusive assortments that can’t be price-matched line for line, whether distinctive owned brands, unique offerings in specific categories (e.g., prepared holiday meal bundles), or exclusive partner products,” it said.
As for the deals, shoppers will find the deepest discounts for electronics and computers on Cyber Monday, while the best deals for TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture should be on Black Friday, said Adobe.
Thanksgiving will have the best deals for sporting goods.
In addition to gifts, many consumers also use the holidays as an opportunity to stock up on essentials, said Adobe.
During Cyber Week, for example, online sales of personal hygiene products are expected to jump 150 percent compared to average sales levels in September.
The top gifts of this season, according to Adobe, are expected to be the Nintendo Switch 2, the video game “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4,” NeeDoh toys, Sesame Street’s Tickle Me Elmo Giggle Max, and the Oura Ring 5.
