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Consumer confidence remains on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years, said a Conference Board economist.
U.S. consumer confidence was on the rise in October, due in part to easing gas prices.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence was on the rise in October after falling to a 12-year low last month, bolstered in part by easing gas prices.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October, up from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September.
“Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions,” said Fergus McCormick, senior economist, global indicators, at The Conference Board.
“The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years.”
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 120.4 from an upwardly revised 111.8 in September.
Net views of current business and employment conditions were both more positive.
Respondents also took a more positive view of future conditions.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 72.6 from an upwardly revised 65.7 in September.
This follows three consecutive months of decline. All three components of the Expectations Index saw improvement.
However, it also marked the 21st consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“Among write-in responses in October, consumers continued to express frustration with rising costs," said McCormick, with references to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices on the rise.
“Comments about war and conflict eased for a second straight month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment as an area of concern also ticked up, though to a lesser extent,” he said.
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The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October, up from an upwardly revised 84.2 in September.
“Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions,” said Fergus McCormick, senior economist, global indicators, at The Conference Board.
“The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years.”
The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, rose to 120.4 from an upwardly revised 111.8 in September.
Net views of current business and employment conditions were both more positive.
Respondents also took a more positive view of future conditions.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 72.6 from an upwardly revised 65.7 in September.
This follows three consecutive months of decline. All three components of the Expectations Index saw improvement.
However, it also marked the 21st consecutive month that expectations remained below the threshold of 80, a level which typically signals a recession is ahead, according to The Conference Board.
“Among write-in responses in October, consumers continued to express frustration with rising costs," said McCormick, with references to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices on the rise.
“Comments about war and conflict eased for a second straight month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment as an area of concern also ticked up, though to a lesser extent,” he said.
By demographics, only younger and wealthier consumers, those under age 35 and those with a household income of $100,000 or more, saw a boost in confidence.
By generation, confidence amongst Gen X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation fell well behind Gen Z and Millennials, which The Conference Board said widens “a sharp generational divide that has emerged over the past two years.”
By political affiliation, confidence improved for all groups, with Republicans in the lead.
Consumers’ view of their Family’s Current Financial Situation improved in October after two weak months, while their future view of the next six months stayed optimistic.
When asked if they believe there will be a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, the most popular answer remains “somewhat likely.”
These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations declined in October but remained elevated. Consumers still expect higher interest rates over the next 12 months.
More consumers said they expected stock prices to increase rather than decrease in the next 12 months.
“Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months,” said McCormick.
“This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers’ purchasing power.”
On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes declined slightly in October.
The top five spending plans included restaurants, bars, and take-out; streaming, internet, and mobile services; utilities; health care; and beauty and personal care.
As for travel, expected spending on hotels and airfare for personal travel moderated.
Fewer people are making vacation plans, with 43 percent of consumers planning a vacation in the next six months, down from an upwardly revised 44 percent in September.
More respondents are planning domestic trips, with fewer headed to foreign countries.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for November are scheduled to be released on Nov. 24.
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