SurveysOct 16, 2024
Here’s What the NRF Expects This Holiday SeasonSurveysOct 30, 2024
Consumer Confidence Rebounds in October
A more positive view of the labor market contributed to the strongest monthly gain since March 2021.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 108.7 in October from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence bounced back in October as consumers took a more positive view of the labor market.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index increased to 108.7 in October from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September.
“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noting that all five components of the index improved.
“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.”
As for the write-in responses, prices and inflation continued to be top concerns, though more respondents mentioned slower inflation and lower grocery prices.
Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, remained unchanged and below both 2020 and 2016 levels.
In October 2016, “election” was the most-mentioned key word in the responses, said the Conference Board, and was in second place in October 2020 behind “COVID.”
This year, “election” was No. 5, falling behind references to prices, inflation, food, and groceries.
By age and income, the confidence boost was seen across all age groups and most income groups.
Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw the sharpest rise in confidence.
Those under 35 and those earning more than $100,000 remained the most confident.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index increased to 108.7 in October from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September.
“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noting that all five components of the index improved.
“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.”
As for the write-in responses, prices and inflation continued to be top concerns, though more respondents mentioned slower inflation and lower grocery prices.
Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, remained unchanged and below both 2020 and 2016 levels.
In October 2016, “election” was the most-mentioned key word in the responses, said the Conference Board, and was in second place in October 2020 behind “COVID.”
This year, “election” was No. 5, falling behind references to prices, inflation, food, and groceries.
By age and income, the confidence boost was seen across all age groups and most income groups.
Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw the sharpest rise in confidence.
Those under 35 and those earning more than $100,000 remained the most confident.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 138 in October from a downwardly revised 123.8 in September.
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions and their view of the labor market were more positive in October.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 89.1 from an upwardly revised 82.8 in September.
It remained above 80, said the Conference Board, noting a reading below 80 normally signals a recession in the near future.
Consumers were more optimistic about business conditions in October. Their outlook on the labor market was more optimistic than pessimistic for the first time since July 2023.
Their outlooks on their income prospects and their family’s current financial situation, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index, were unchanged.
Their outlook on their family’s future financial situation was more positive.
The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months” metric dropped to a new low in October.
“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months dropped to its lowest level since the question was first asked in July 2022, as did the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession,” said Peterson.
Consumer plans to buy big-ticket appliances were mixed and plans to buy electronics were down slightly.
On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes and new cars continued to increase.
When consumers were asked about plans to buy “more durable” goods or services over the next six months, consumers again showed a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods.
“Regarding services, consumers’ priorities were little changed, but they were keen to spend a bit more on some discretionary items going forward,” said the Conference Board.
There were more plans to dine out and stay in hotels in October. Plans to enjoy out-of-the-home entertainment, like museums and amusement parks, improved, though remained at the bottom of the list.
Consumers were more optimistic about the stock market, with 51 percent of respondents expecting to see stock prices increase over the year ahead, the highest reading since the question was first asked in 1987.
The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 48 percent following four consecutive months of decline. The share expecting lower rates decreased to 30 percent.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers welcomed the recent reduction in interest rates but felt that levels were still too high,” said the Conference Board.
Though overall inflation is slowing and gas prices are declining, the organization said, the average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 5.3 percent in October from 5.2 percent last month, which it said reflects upward pressure on the prices of food and services.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for November are set to be released on Nov. 26.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsDec 05, 2025
Piece of the Week: Robinson Pelham’s ‘Tsar Star’ EarringsThe new pink sapphire version of the piece dances with its wearer in the brand’s “Icons After Dark” holiday campaign.
TrendsDec 05, 2025
Pantone’s Color of the Year for 2026 Is … WhiteA choice that’s generated a lot of commentary, Pantone says “Cloud Dancer” marks a fresh start and encourages relaxation and creativity.
MajorsDec 05, 2025
Stuller Releases ‘Wrapped in Wonder’ CampaignThe manufacturer’s holiday campaign features a gift guide filled with trending designs and jewelry that can be personalized.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
CrimeDec 04, 2025
Man Arrested After Allegedly Swallowing Fabergé Egg PendantThe man was charged with theft, accused of ingesting the necklace while in a jewelry store in Auckland, New Zealand.
Weekly QuizDec 04, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsDec 04, 2025
Step Inside JR Dunn Jewelers’ Giant New Store The Florida independent expanded its store from 8,000 to 14,000 square feet, fulfilling the vision of its late co-founder, Jim Dunn.
Supplier BulletinDec 04, 2025
Introducing Shop Natural Day: A New Movement Celebrating Natural DiamondsSponsored by De Beers Group
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
WatchesDec 04, 2025
Casio Shrinks its G-Shock WatchThe classic 5600 series G-Shock has been scaled down to about a tenth of its size, becoming a fully functioning watch ring.
Events & AwardsDec 04, 2025
AGA Announces 2026 Tucson Speaker LineupThe association’s annual conference and gala will take place Feb. 4, 2026, during the Tucson gem shows.
Events & AwardsDec 04, 2025
CBG Announces Speaker Lineup for 2026 Miami Event The January show will include a workshop for jewelry retailers on implementing AI to strengthen their businesses.
TrendsDec 03, 2025
Miley Cyrus Debuts Edgy Engagement RingFellow musician Maxx Morando proposed to the star with a chunky, cushion-cut diamond ring designed by Jacquie Aiche.
Policies & IssuesDec 03, 2025
Costco Joins Growing Wave of Retailers Suing for Tariff Refunds The retailer, which sells billions in fine jewelry and watches, is suing the Trump administration and U.S. Customs and Border Patrol.
AuctionsDec 03, 2025
Fabergé’s 'The Winter Egg' Achieves Record $30MThe historic egg, crafted for Russia's ruling family prior to the revolution, was the star of Christie’s recent auction of works by Fabergé.
FinancialsDec 02, 2025
Signet Jewelers’ Q3 Sales Up Amid Continued Focus on Lower Price PointsThe retailer offered more fashion jewelry priced under $1,000, including lab-grown diamond and men’s jewelry.
CollectionsDec 02, 2025
Briony Raymond Introduces First FragranceThe eau de parfum is held in a fluted glass bottle that mirrors the decor of the brand’s atelier, and its cap is a nod to its “Sloan” ring.
SourcingDec 02, 2025
Petra Diamonds Elevates Interim CEOs to Permanent StatusVivek Gadodia and Juan Kemp, who’ve been serving as interim co-CEOs since February, will continue to lead the diamond mining company.
MajorsDec 02, 2025
Lee Krombholz Takes Over as Chair of MJSA Education FoundationIn addition, a slate of new officers and trustees were appointed to the board.
IndependentsDec 02, 2025
RJO Welcomes Its 1,200th Retail MemberWitt’s Jewelry in Wayne, Nebraska, is the organization’s new milestone member.
SourcingDec 02, 2025
Brendan Laurs Honored With 2025 Bonanno AwardLaurs is the editor-in-chief of Gem-A’s The Journal of Gemmology and an expert on the formation of colored gemstone deposits.
CrimeDec 01, 2025
Fourth Man Charged in Louvre Jewelry HeistThe man, who has a criminal history, is suspected of being the fourth member of the four-man crew that carried out the heist.
AuctionsDec 01, 2025
Christie’s Presents ‘Splendor & Style’ CollectionThe single-owner collection includes one of the largest offerings of Verdura jewels ever to appear at auction, said Christie’s.
IndependentsDec 01, 2025
Lustig Jewelers’ New Owner Is a Fellow Chicago JewelerMichael Helfer has taken the reins, bringing together two historic Chicago jewelry names.
MajorsDec 01, 2025
PGI Debuts Platinum-Filled Holiday Gift GuideThe guide features all-new platinum designs for the holiday season by brands like Harwell Godfrey, Ritani, and Suna.
FinancialsNov 26, 2025
Movado CEO Talks Tariffs, Growing Interest in Accessible Luxury WatchesDuring its Q3 call, CEO Efraim Grinberg discussed the deal to lower tariffs on Swiss-made watches, watch market trends, and more.
TrendsNov 26, 2025
Piece of the Week: Rosior’s Pumpkin RingRosior’s high jewelry cocktail ring with orange sapphires and green diamonds is the perfect Thanksgiving accessory.
IndependentsNov 26, 2025
Greenwich St. Jewelers Launches Colorful Holiday CampaignThe “Embrace Your True Colors” campaign features jewels with a vibrant color palette and poetry by Grammy-nominated artist Aja Monet.
