SurveysOct 16, 2024
Here’s What the NRF Expects This Holiday SeasonSurveysOct 30, 2024
Consumer Confidence Rebounds in October
A more positive view of the labor market contributed to the strongest monthly gain since March 2021.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 108.7 in October from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September.
New York—U.S. consumer confidence bounced back in October as consumers took a more positive view of the labor market.
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index increased to 108.7 in October from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September.
“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noting that all five components of the index improved.
“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.”
As for the write-in responses, prices and inflation continued to be top concerns, though more respondents mentioned slower inflation and lower grocery prices.
Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, remained unchanged and below both 2020 and 2016 levels.
In October 2016, “election” was the most-mentioned key word in the responses, said the Conference Board, and was in second place in October 2020 behind “COVID.”
This year, “election” was No. 5, falling behind references to prices, inflation, food, and groceries.
By age and income, the confidence boost was seen across all age groups and most income groups.
Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw the sharpest rise in confidence.
Those under 35 and those earning more than $100,000 remained the most confident.
Related stories will be right here …
The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index increased to 108.7 in October from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September.
“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noting that all five components of the index improved.
“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.”
As for the write-in responses, prices and inflation continued to be top concerns, though more respondents mentioned slower inflation and lower grocery prices.
Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, remained unchanged and below both 2020 and 2016 levels.
In October 2016, “election” was the most-mentioned key word in the responses, said the Conference Board, and was in second place in October 2020 behind “COVID.”
This year, “election” was No. 5, falling behind references to prices, inflation, food, and groceries.
By age and income, the confidence boost was seen across all age groups and most income groups.
Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw the sharpest rise in confidence.
Those under 35 and those earning more than $100,000 remained the most confident.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 138 in October from a downwardly revised 123.8 in September.
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions and their view of the labor market were more positive in October.
The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 89.1 from an upwardly revised 82.8 in September.
It remained above 80, said the Conference Board, noting a reading below 80 normally signals a recession in the near future.
Consumers were more optimistic about business conditions in October. Their outlook on the labor market was more optimistic than pessimistic for the first time since July 2023.
Their outlooks on their income prospects and their family’s current financial situation, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index, were unchanged.
Their outlook on their family’s future financial situation was more positive.
The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months” metric dropped to a new low in October.
“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months dropped to its lowest level since the question was first asked in July 2022, as did the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession,” said Peterson.
Consumer plans to buy big-ticket appliances were mixed and plans to buy electronics were down slightly.
On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes and new cars continued to increase.
When consumers were asked about plans to buy “more durable” goods or services over the next six months, consumers again showed a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods.
“Regarding services, consumers’ priorities were little changed, but they were keen to spend a bit more on some discretionary items going forward,” said the Conference Board.
There were more plans to dine out and stay in hotels in October. Plans to enjoy out-of-the-home entertainment, like museums and amusement parks, improved, though remained at the bottom of the list.
Consumers were more optimistic about the stock market, with 51 percent of respondents expecting to see stock prices increase over the year ahead, the highest reading since the question was first asked in 1987.
The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 48 percent following four consecutive months of decline. The share expecting lower rates decreased to 30 percent.
“Write-in responses showed that consumers welcomed the recent reduction in interest rates but felt that levels were still too high,” said the Conference Board.
Though overall inflation is slowing and gas prices are declining, the organization said, the average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 5.3 percent in October from 5.2 percent last month, which it said reflects upward pressure on the prices of food and services.
The Consumer Confidence survey results for November are set to be released on Nov. 26.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Meet the Real Moms of Day’s JewelersThe jeweler’s Mother’s Day campaign highlights the women who work there—mothers, grandmothers, women who want to be mothers, and dog moms.
Supplier BulletinApr 23, 2026
JM® Shipping Solution: Smarter Shipping for High-Value GoodsSponsored by Jewelers Mutual
Lab-GrownApr 23, 2026
Charles & Colvard May Sell Assets for $1.5MThe proposed agreement follows the moissanite maker’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection filing last month.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
AuctionsApr 23, 2026
John Jacob Astor IV’s Titanic Pocket Watch Fetches $1MThe Patek Philippe for Tiffany & Co. timepiece Astor brought aboard the ill-fated ship sold for double its estimate at a Freeman’s auction.
Weekly QuizApr 23, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsApr 23, 2026
Adam Neeley’s High Jewelry Collection Steps Into Salvador Dalí’s GardenThe “Dalí’s Garden” collection was inspired by a surreal dream Neeley had after cooking a recipe from Salvador Dalí’s 1973 cookbook.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Windsor Jewelers Names New Buying DirectorNatalie Feanny has been appointed to the role.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
CrimeApr 22, 2026
New Mexico Couple Pleads Guilty to Selling Fake Native American JewelryThe pair falsely claimed their jewelry was made by Navajo artists, but it was imported from Vietnam.
AuctionsApr 22, 2026
Roberta Flack’s Jewelry Is Going Up for AuctionJulien’s Auctions is selling the musician’s fine and fashion jewelry alongside her clothing, gold records, and other memorabilia.
CollectionsApr 22, 2026
British Museum Curator Pens Book on ‘The Tudor Heart’Rachel King’s book dives into the history of the pendant believed to have belonged to Henry VIII and his first wife, Katherine of Aragon.
Events & AwardsApr 22, 2026
Here’s What Sy Kessler Has on Tap for Las Vegas The company will have deals on precious metals testers as well as the latest in lab-grown diamond detection technology and security.
WatchesApr 21, 2026
Coco Chanel Enters the Game with New Watch CollectionGabrielle “Coco” Chanel is a character in the “Coco Game” collection of watches and the queen in its first haute horlogerie chessboard.
IndependentsApr 21, 2026
Meet Jewelers of America’s 2026 ‘20 Under 40’ ClassThe annual list honors rising professionals on the retail and supply sides of the jewelry industry.
CrimeApr 21, 2026
Customs Nabs 1,500 Pieces of Counterfeit Jewelry Bound for NYCSeized in Kentucky, the packages include fake Cartier, Tiffany & Co., Chanel, and Fendi jewelry.
CrimeApr 20, 2026
Queens Man Convicted in Bludgeoning Death of Pawn Shop OwnerRodolfo Lopez-Portillo faces 25 years to life in prison after being found guilty in the March 2022 beating death of Arasb Shoughi.
TrendsApr 20, 2026
Beth Bernstein, Sonia Esther Soltani Pen New Jewelry Book“Jewelry Creators: Dynamic Duos and Generational Gems” highlights the relationships among 22 influential designers, brands, and gem dealers.
Events & AwardsApr 20, 2026
Atlanta Jewelry Show’s Spring Event Is Hitting the RoadThe AJS Spring 2027 show will be held in Savannah, Georgia, with future shows taking place in other Southeast cities.
MajorsApr 20, 2026
Kendra Scott Names New CFO, Chief Business OfficerThe jewelry retailer plans to open 20 new stores this year and expand into new product categories.
TrendsApr 17, 2026
New (Groundbreaking) Floral Jewelry for Spring 2026Flower motifs are the jewelry trend blooming amongst the new collections that debuted this spring.
MajorsApr 17, 2026
QVC Group Files for Chapter 11 BankruptcyThe retailer reported an 8 percent decline in annual sales as it struggles under the weight of billions of dollars of debt.
CollectionsApr 17, 2026
Edina Kiss’ Earrings Are the Devil on Your ShoulderThe “Devil” drop earrings, our Piece of the Week, are part of designer Edina Kiss’ new namesake jewelry line that she will show at Couture.
CrimeApr 17, 2026
FBI Issues Warning to Refineries, Retailers Due to High Price of GoldThe alert states that burglary crews are targeting jewelry businesses and details how jewelers and refineries can protect themselves.
WatchesApr 16, 2026
Cartier Brings Back the RoadsterThe “watchmaker of shapes” debuted the reworked version of the vintage sports car-inspired timepiece at Watches & Wonders.
IndependentsApr 16, 2026
Edge Retail Academy Updates Leadership TeamAs demand for jewelry retail coaching grows, the company has established a dedicated business coaching leadership team.
MajorsApr 16, 2026
Stuller’s Latest Mountings Catalog Is Out NowThe “Mountings 2026-2027” catalog showcases Stuller’s largest and most diverse assortment to date with more than 400 new mounting styles.
PodcastsApr 15, 2026
Episode 4: The Natural Diamond DilemmaSally Morrison and Mark Klein discuss De Beers’ first beacon in 16 years and the mistake the industry made with lab-grown diamonds.
