Consumer Confidence Rebounds in October

New York—U.S. consumer confidence bounced back in October as consumers took a more positive view of the labor market.

The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index increased to 108.7 in October from an upwardly revised 99.2 in September.

“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noting that all five components of the index improved.

“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.”

As for the write-in responses, prices and inflation continued to be top concerns, though more respondents mentioned slower inflation and lower grocery prices.

Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, remained unchanged and below both 2020 and 2016 levels.

In October 2016, “election” was the most-mentioned key word in the responses, said the Conference Board, and was in second place in October 2020 behind “COVID.”

This year, “election” was No. 5, falling behind references to prices, inflation, food, and groceries.

By age and income, the confidence boost was seen across all age groups and most income groups.

Consumers aged 35 to 54 saw the sharpest rise in confidence.

Those under 35 and those earning more than $100,000 remained the most confident.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current view of business and labor market conditions, fell to 138 in October from a downwardly revised 123.8 in September.

Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions and their view of the labor market were more positive in October.

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions in the near future, rose to 89.1 from an upwardly revised 82.8 in September.

It remained above 80, said the Conference Board, noting a reading below 80 normally signals a recession in the near future.

Consumers were more optimistic about business conditions in October. Their outlook on the labor market was more optimistic than pessimistic for the first time since July 2023.

Their outlooks on their income prospects and their family’s current financial situation, a measure not included when calculating the Present Situation and Expectations Index, were unchanged.

Their outlook on their family’s future financial situation was more positive.

The “Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a U.S. Recession over the Next 12 Months” metric dropped to a new low in October.

“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months dropped to its lowest level since the question was first asked in July 2022, as did the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession,” said Peterson.

Consumer plans to buy big-ticket appliances were mixed and plans to buy electronics were down slightly.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes and new cars continued to increase.

When consumers were asked about plans to buy “more durable” goods or services over the next six months, consumers again showed a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods.

“Regarding services, consumers’ priorities were little changed, but they were keen to spend a bit more on some discretionary items going forward,” said the Conference Board.

There were more plans to dine out and stay in hotels in October. Plans to enjoy out-of-the-home entertainment, like museums and amusement parks, improved, though remained at the bottom of the list.

Consumers were more optimistic about the stock market, with 51 percent of respondents expecting to see stock prices increase over the year ahead, the highest reading since the question was first asked in 1987.

The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 48 percent following four consecutive months of decline. The share expecting lower rates decreased to 30 percent.

“Write-in responses showed that consumers welcomed the recent reduction in interest rates but felt that levels were still too high,” said the Conference Board.

Though overall inflation is slowing and gas prices are declining, the organization said, the average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 5.3 percent in October from 5.2 percent last month, which it said reflects upward pressure on the prices of food and services.

The Consumer Confidence survey results for November are set to be released on Nov. 26.