ColumnistsDec 14, 2021
On Data: The First 7 Days of DecemberFinancialsDec 16, 2021
NRF Ups Holiday Spending Forecast Despite Modest November Sales
Though monthly retail sales saw only a slight increase, the organization is still predicting record spending for the holiday season.
The National Retail Federation now expects holiday sales to grow as much as 11.5 percent year-over-year, up from its previous estimates of 8.5-10.5 percent growth.
New York—U.S. monthly retail sales rose slightly in November, hampered by rising inflation and supply chain issues despite an early start to holiday shopping.
Sales were up 0.3 percent month-over-month in November to $639.8 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released Wednesday, while year-over-year sales were up 18 percent.
The results fell short of analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 0.8 percent.
October sales were slightly stronger than previously thought, up 1.8 percent month-over-month rather than the previously reported 1.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
Despite the modest growth, the National Retail Federation said in releasing its own November sales figures Wednesday that it remains firm in its forecast for “record spending” for the holiday season.
The NRF expects holiday sales to grow as much as 11.5 percent year-over-year, exceeding its previous estimates of growth between 8.5 and 10.5 percent.
“Even at the low end of the range, both the amount spent and the growth rate would set new records,” said the NRF.
Though there have been month-over-month declines, sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020, said the NRF, citing U.S. Census data.
“We expect demand will remain strong through December, even though consumers started holiday shopping earlier than ever this year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly given the supply constraints.
Early shopping aside, the NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, meaning November’s results mark the completion of the first half of the season.
“Despite the rise of the Omicron variant, increased vaccination rates combined with retailers’ ongoing safety protocols and procedures have resulted in consumers who feel they can continue to shop safely and conveniently,” Shay said.
Related stories will be right here …
Sales were up 0.3 percent month-over-month in November to $639.8 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released Wednesday, while year-over-year sales were up 18 percent.
The results fell short of analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 0.8 percent.
October sales were slightly stronger than previously thought, up 1.8 percent month-over-month rather than the previously reported 1.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
Despite the modest growth, the National Retail Federation said in releasing its own November sales figures Wednesday that it remains firm in its forecast for “record spending” for the holiday season.
The NRF expects holiday sales to grow as much as 11.5 percent year-over-year, exceeding its previous estimates of growth between 8.5 and 10.5 percent.
“Even at the low end of the range, both the amount spent and the growth rate would set new records,” said the NRF.
Though there have been month-over-month declines, sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020, said the NRF, citing U.S. Census data.
“We expect demand will remain strong through December, even though consumers started holiday shopping earlier than ever this year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly given the supply constraints.
Early shopping aside, the NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, meaning November’s results mark the completion of the first half of the season.
“Despite the rise of the Omicron variant, increased vaccination rates combined with retailers’ ongoing safety protocols and procedures have resulted in consumers who feel they can continue to shop safely and conveniently,” Shay said.
The continued spending is due in part to consumers’ healthy financial condition, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, which has not been disrupted even with inflation and rising COVID-19 cases.
“Recent labor market progress has helped propel incredibly strong demand, and most shoppers have the income and savings to absorb higher prices driven by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions,” he said.
As was the case last month, how customers said they felt didn’t quite match up with their shopping behaviors.
Consumer confidence fell in November as inflation pushed prices higher, marking the fourth decline in the past five months, and its lowest level in nine months.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in November and about 7 percent year-over-year, with inflation rising at its fastest rate since 1982.
Gas prices were up 58 percent year-over-year, while food costs climbed 6 percent.
The NRF’s November results, which exclude auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants, show retail sales were unchanged from October, but up 15 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
“While seasonally adjusted numbers may make the results look modest, seasonal patterns have been significantly disrupted by the pandemic and unadjusted data shows November’s sales as calculated by NRF were actually the highest on record,” said Kleinhenz.
For the first 11 months of the year, sales were up 14.2 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with the NRF’s revised forecast that 2021 retail sales will grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
November sales were up in all but three categories— furniture and home furnishing stores; online and other non-store sales; and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at clothing, sporting goods, and furniture stores.
More on Financials
The Latest
ColumnistsJan 21, 2025
Peter Smith: Sales Training’s Dirty Little SecretPeter Smith pulls back the curtain on the often misinterpreted, and sometimes maligned, world of sales training.
TrendsJan 21, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Decadent Mocha MoussePantone’s 2025 Color of the Year takes the form of jewelry through gemstones and enamel that look just as delicious as mocha mousse.
Policies & IssuesJan 21, 2025
These Designers and Retailers Are Raising Money for LA Wildfire Relief From raffles to auctions to donations, the industry is working to aid charities in Los Angeles amid the raging wildfires.
Brought to you by
3 New Year’s Resolutions for Jewelry Lovers The new year feels like a clean slate, inspiring reflection, hope, and the motivation to become better versions of ourselves.
SourcingJan 21, 2025
Diamonds Do Good Adds 2 Board MembersJulia Hackman Chafé and Monica Elias have joined the organization’s board of directors.
Weekly QuizJan 16, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsJan 17, 2025
Piece of the Week: Picchiotti’s Transformable ‘Classic Blue and Green’ NecklaceThe necklace features a sapphire drop weighing more than 9 carats that detaches to transform into a ring.
MajorsJan 17, 2025
Tiffany & Co., CFDA Name First Winner of Jewelry Designer AwardJameel Mohammed, founder of Afrofuturist brand Khiry, will receive a cash prize and a one-year paid fellowship with Tiffany & Co.
Brought to you by
A Diamond Is Forever Celebrates "Forever Present" Holiday CampaignA Diamond is Forever hosted a holiday celebration in honor of their new marketing campaign, ‘Forever Present.’
IndependentsJan 16, 2025
Lux Bond & Green to Open Sixth LocationThe 127-year-old jeweler is planning to open a new store in Mystic, Connecticut.
WatchesJan 16, 2025
Timex Launches Collection of National Park WatchesThe watches’ dials feature artwork celebrating the vibrant energy and unique landscapes of six of America’s national parks.
AuctionsJan 16, 2025
Elizabeth Taylor’s Diamond Line Bracelet Going up for Auction Offered by U.K. auction house Woolley & Wallis, the yellow diamond bracelet was a gift from Taylor’s good friend Michael Jackson.
Events & AwardsJan 16, 2025
JCK Las Vegas 2025 Open for RegistrationThe jewelry trade show returns to The Venetian Expo and The Venetian Resort in Las Vegas from June 6 to 9.
EditorsJan 15, 2025
The Jewelry I’d Bid On in Christie’s Iris Apfel AuctionAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco highlights her favorite fashion jewelry pieces from the upcoming “Unapologetically Iris” auction.
MajorsJan 15, 2025
Macy’s to Close 66 Stores as Part of Turnaround StrategyThe closures are part of the retailer’s plan to close 150 locations over a three-year period.
Policies & IssuesJan 15, 2025
JVC Debuts Guide to Americans with Disabilities Act ComplianceThe online guide is available for free and written with the jewelry industry in mind.
Events & AwardsJan 15, 2025
Jose Hess Design Awards Open for SubmissionsThe awards honor the late Jose Hess, a founding member of AJDC and an award-winning jewelry designer.
GradingJan 14, 2025
GIA CEO, President Susan Jacques to Retire at the End of 2025The grading lab said the search for her successor is underway.
ColumnistsJan 14, 2025
Jules Kim: Building Bridges Between Creators and IndustryIn this special op-ed, designer Jules Kim calls on big brands to collaborate with independent creators instead of copying their designs.
GradingJan 14, 2025
Former SSEF Director Henry A. Hänni DiesA pioneering figure in gemology, he is remembered for his spirit of generosity, curiosity, and joy.
MajorsJan 14, 2025
Edouard Schneider Joins Messika as Chief Brand OfficerSchneider brings over 20 years of luxury and fashion industry experience to his role as a key member of the brand’s global leadership team.
SourcingJan 13, 2025
Zambia Reinstates 15% Export Duty on Precious Gemstones, Shocking GemfieldsGemfields said the Zambian government revoked the 2019 suspension of the tax with no warning.
TechnologyJan 13, 2025
Ultrahuman Unveils Luxury Smart RingWith versions in 18-karat gold and platinum, the wearables company is blending health technology and fine jewelry.
Policies & IssuesJan 13, 2025
Brandee Dallow Elected President of Ethical MetalsmithsThe executive brings more than two decades of industry experience to the role.
IndependentsJan 13, 2025
The Seven Pops Up in Palm BeachThe New York City-based retailer is bringing its curation of jewels to a pop-up shop at Love Binetti in Palm Beach, Florida.
Policies & IssuesJan 10, 2025
Jewelers Relief Fund Reopened to Aid Victims of LA Fires Created by JA and DCA, the fund is collecting money for jewelry businesses damaged by the wildfires in Los Angeles County.
TrendsJan 10, 2025
Piece of the Week: Elsa Jin’s ‘Mozi’ BroochAdrien Brody received his first Golden Globe while wearing the “Mozi” brooch, which depicts a spill of traditional Chinese calligraphy ink.
SourcingJan 10, 2025
De Beers, GJEPC Partner to Promote Natural DiamondsThe pair will work together to support independent retailers in India with marketing assets, training materials, and other tools.
