ColumnistsDec 14, 2021
On Data: The First 7 Days of DecemberFinancialsDec 16, 2021
NRF Ups Holiday Spending Forecast Despite Modest November Sales
Though monthly retail sales saw only a slight increase, the organization is still predicting record spending for the holiday season.
The National Retail Federation now expects holiday sales to grow as much as 11.5 percent year-over-year, up from its previous estimates of 8.5-10.5 percent growth.
New York—U.S. monthly retail sales rose slightly in November, hampered by rising inflation and supply chain issues despite an early start to holiday shopping.
Sales were up 0.3 percent month-over-month in November to $639.8 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released Wednesday, while year-over-year sales were up 18 percent.
The results fell short of analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 0.8 percent.
October sales were slightly stronger than previously thought, up 1.8 percent month-over-month rather than the previously reported 1.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
Despite the modest growth, the National Retail Federation said in releasing its own November sales figures Wednesday that it remains firm in its forecast for “record spending” for the holiday season.
The NRF expects holiday sales to grow as much as 11.5 percent year-over-year, exceeding its previous estimates of growth between 8.5 and 10.5 percent.
“Even at the low end of the range, both the amount spent and the growth rate would set new records,” said the NRF.
Though there have been month-over-month declines, sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020, said the NRF, citing U.S. Census data.
“We expect demand will remain strong through December, even though consumers started holiday shopping earlier than ever this year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly given the supply constraints.
Early shopping aside, the NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, meaning November’s results mark the completion of the first half of the season.
“Despite the rise of the Omicron variant, increased vaccination rates combined with retailers’ ongoing safety protocols and procedures have resulted in consumers who feel they can continue to shop safely and conveniently,” Shay said.
Related stories will be right here …
Sales were up 0.3 percent month-over-month in November to $639.8 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released Wednesday, while year-over-year sales were up 18 percent.
The results fell short of analyst expectations of a month-over-month increase of 0.8 percent.
October sales were slightly stronger than previously thought, up 1.8 percent month-over-month rather than the previously reported 1.7 percent, as per the revised figures.
Despite the modest growth, the National Retail Federation said in releasing its own November sales figures Wednesday that it remains firm in its forecast for “record spending” for the holiday season.
The NRF expects holiday sales to grow as much as 11.5 percent year-over-year, exceeding its previous estimates of growth between 8.5 and 10.5 percent.
“Even at the low end of the range, both the amount spent and the growth rate would set new records,” said the NRF.
Though there have been month-over-month declines, sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020, said the NRF, citing U.S. Census data.
“We expect demand will remain strong through December, even though consumers started holiday shopping earlier than ever this year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release.
Last year, the NRF encouraged shoppers to start checking off their holiday gift lists early, and the push for early shopping has continued this year, particularly given the supply constraints.
Early shopping aside, the NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, meaning November’s results mark the completion of the first half of the season.
“Despite the rise of the Omicron variant, increased vaccination rates combined with retailers’ ongoing safety protocols and procedures have resulted in consumers who feel they can continue to shop safely and conveniently,” Shay said.
The continued spending is due in part to consumers’ healthy financial condition, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, which has not been disrupted even with inflation and rising COVID-19 cases.
“Recent labor market progress has helped propel incredibly strong demand, and most shoppers have the income and savings to absorb higher prices driven by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions,” he said.
As was the case last month, how customers said they felt didn’t quite match up with their shopping behaviors.
Consumer confidence fell in November as inflation pushed prices higher, marking the fourth decline in the past five months, and its lowest level in nine months.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time that consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose nearly 1 percent month-over-month in November and about 7 percent year-over-year, with inflation rising at its fastest rate since 1982.
Gas prices were up 58 percent year-over-year, while food costs climbed 6 percent.
The NRF’s November results, which exclude auto sales, gas stations, and restaurants, show retail sales were unchanged from October, but up 15 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
“While seasonally adjusted numbers may make the results look modest, seasonal patterns have been significantly disrupted by the pandemic and unadjusted data shows November’s sales as calculated by NRF were actually the highest on record,” said Kleinhenz.
For the first 11 months of the year, sales were up 14.2 percent over the same period in 2020.
The results are in line with the NRF’s revised forecast that 2021 retail sales will grow between 10.5 and 13.5 percent over 2020 to between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion.
November sales were up in all but three categories— furniture and home furnishing stores; online and other non-store sales; and health and personal care stores—on a monthly basis.
Year-over-year, sales were up across the board, led by increased sales at clothing, sporting goods, and furniture stores.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Financials
The Latest
IndependentsApr 01, 2025
Bergman Jewelers in Omaha Closing After 137 YearsThe independent jeweler first opened its doors in 1888.
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in FloridaThe debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They DeserveBench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor ShortageThe roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.
Weekly QuizMar 27, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry CollectionThe “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in DiamondsDiamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With AcquisitionThe Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH WatchesThe longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry StoreAuthorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in EnglishLotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ RingThe ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.
SurveysMar 27, 2025
Consumer Confidence Falls in March Amid ‘Gloomy’ OutlookThe Conference Board’s index fell as consumers continued to worry about the impact of tariffs, the labor market, and the price of eggs.
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand AmbassadorThe Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.
IndependentsMar 26, 2025
Bailey’s Fine Jewelry Acquires Fellow NC Independent JewelerThe family-owned retailer is the new owner of Morrison Smith Jewelers in Charlotte, North Carolina.
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco WatchesThe “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.
MajorsMar 26, 2025
QVC Group Appoints New PresidentAlex Wellen, formerly CEO and president of MotorTrend Group, has taken on the role.
Events & AwardsMar 26, 2025
Jewelers of America Announces New Funding Initiative The Impact Initiative is part of the nonprofit association’s new three-year strategic plan.
AuctionsMar 25, 2025
Christie’s To Auction 35-Carat Sapphire, 13-Carat RubyThe ruby and the sapphire, which Christie’s calls a “once-in-a-generation masterpiece,” are part of the upcoming Hong Kong jewelry auction.
CrimeMar 25, 2025
Tiffany & Co. Earrings Swallowed Following Grab-and-Run Theft RecoveredThe two pairs of earrings, snatched from a Tiffany & Co. store in Orlando, Florida, are valued at a combined $769,500.
ColumnistsMar 25, 2025
The Smart Lab: Using Short-Form Videos to Sell More JewelryThe time to start experimenting with video content is now, writes columnist Emmanuel Raheb.
CollectionsMar 24, 2025
Pomellato’s Latest ‘Nudo’ Collections Revamp its Classic DesignFrom striking high jewelry to miniature fine jewelry, the new chapter continues to highlight gemstones featuring its signature 57-facet cut.
MajorsMar 24, 2025
4 Top Executives to Depart Signet Jewelers Amid TurnaroundThe jewelry giant is reducing its senior leadership by 30 percent as part of its new turnaround strategy.
