MajorsDec 19, 2025
MadaLuxe Group Acquires Ippolita The luxury goods company said founder Ippolita Rostagno will remain at the brand’s helm.
SurveysOct 04, 2017
NRF Predicts Holiday Retail Sales Increase of Up to 4%
The National Retail Federation cited economic growth and improved consumer confidence in releasing its annual November-December forecast.
The National Retail Federation is estimating holiday retail sales growth of between 3.6 and 4 percent in November and December.
Washington--Talk about the 2017 holiday season has officially begun, and if the National Retail Federation’s prediction holds true, it could be a good one for retailers.
The trade association released its holiday sales forecast Tuesday morning, stating that it expects retail sales in November and December--excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants--to increase between 3.6 and 4 percent for a total of $678.75 billion to $682 billion.
Such growth would meet or exceed last year’s increase of 3.6 percent and the five-year average of 3.5 percent.
(This is the first time the NRF has announced the forecast as a range rather than as a single fixed percentage, which it said was due to the recent hurricanes. While they are not expected to have a significant long-term effect on the economy, the association said they still have had enough of an impact on economic indicators to make it difficult to make a more precise forecast.)
The estimated growth for the 2017 holiday season was based on a number of factors, beginning with the strength of the economy.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said on a conference call Tuesday morning that while the recent economic growth of about 2 percent is “not as robust” as they’d like to see, it still has been a solid performance. He added that it continues to expand at a steady-but-modest pace.
Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz echoed these sentiments, noting that while unemployment and consumer spending will be “clouded” by the effects of the hurricanes, he still expects spending to increase and for there to be continued gains in employment and wages.
Additionally, Shay referenced the strength of the consumer as one of the reasons for predicted growth in sales: “We continue to see the consumer doing, really, a substantial portion of the heavy lifting in economic growth by keeping the economy moving forward.”
He cited the fact that retailers are learning how to better connect with consumers across all channels as a third reason for the prediction of a year-over-year sales increase.
Also, because of the way the calendar lines up this year, with Thanksgiving on Nov. 24 and Christmas Day falling on a Monday, there will be an extra weekend in the season for shopping.
RELATED CONTENT: The 10 Days Predicted to be the Busiest This Holiday SeasonHe noted that while the Consumer Sentiment Index showed a slight decline in September after a seven-month
high in August, consumer resilience is shown in their willingness to spend and the way they’re accessing credit and taking on debt.
Along with job creation, improved wages and an increase in net worth, these factors are creating conditions for confidence in spending and investing.
Competition and Price Sensitivity
Along with reasons why they expect growth in retail sales during the two-month holiday shopping period, the NRF also spoke about the trends expected to have an impact on the season.
For the past few years, and to no one’s surprise, Shay said they have seen that consumers are different in the post-Great Recession era.
Pricing, Shay said, is a “very significant indicator of spending.”
He added that consumers will be very price sensitive and that they expect it to be a critical factor for consumers as they make decisions about retail spending this holiday season.
And with the level of transparency that exists in the marketplace among competitors and the ability of consumers to “price shop” instantaneously, retailers will need to keep an even closer eye on each other’s promotions and offers, and on consumer shopping behaviors, so they can best deliver the product at the right prices and on the right channels.
This has to happen because, ultimately, the consumer will stay “pragmatic, looking for value, looking for price and certainly looking for convenience,” Kleinhenz said.
Along with job creation, improved wages and an increase in net worth, these factors are creating conditions for confidence in spending and investing.
Competition and Price Sensitivity
Along with reasons why they expect growth in retail sales during the two-month holiday shopping period, the NRF also spoke about the trends expected to have an impact on the season.
For the past few years, and to no one’s surprise, Shay said they have seen that consumers are different in the post-Great Recession era.
Pricing, Shay said, is a “very significant indicator of spending.”
He added that consumers will be very price sensitive and that they expect it to be a critical factor for consumers as they make decisions about retail spending this holiday season.
And with the level of transparency that exists in the marketplace among competitors and the ability of consumers to “price shop” instantaneously, retailers will need to keep an even closer eye on each other’s promotions and offers, and on consumer shopping behaviors, so they can best deliver the product at the right prices and on the right channels.
This has to happen because, ultimately, the consumer will stay “pragmatic, looking for value, looking for price and certainly looking for convenience,” Kleinhenz said.
More on Surveys
The Latest
MajorsDec 19, 2025
LVMH Names New Bulgari CEOLaura Burdese, who joined the Italian luxury brand in 2022, will take on the role in July.
EditorsDec 19, 2025
2025 Jewelry Superlatives: A Yearbook-Style Year in Review The National Jeweler editors revisit the most noteworthy industry happenings and design trends from 2025.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
AuctionsDec 19, 2025
Jean Schlumberger’s ‘African Cat’ Is Purr-Fection Need a gift for the cat lover who has everything? Look no further than our latest Piece of the Week.
Weekly QuizDec 18, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsDec 18, 2025
Audemars Piguet Reclaims Historic Pocket Watch at AuctionIt purchased the “Grosse Pièce,” an ultra-complicated Audemars Piguet pocket watch from the ‘20s, for a record-breaking price at Sotheby’s.
Lab-GrownDec 18, 2025
Kira Jewels Debuts Custom Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry ServiceThe lab-grown diamond grower now offers custom engagement and fashion jewelry through its Kira Custom Lab Jewelry service.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
EditorsDec 18, 2025
Terry Chandler Looks Back on 40 Years of Opportunity, Change, and FriendsChandler got his start at Michelson Jewelers and has served as DCA president and CEO since 2001. He will retire at the end of the month.
WatchesDec 18, 2025
Bob’s Watches to Open Store in New York’s JFK AirportThe boutique is slated to open this week inside Terminal 8, offering pre-owned Rolex watches and more to international travelers.
Supplier BulletinDec 18, 2025
Cell Jammers Are Targeting Your Business. Here's How to Beat ThemSponsored by Digital Monitoring Products
CrimeDec 17, 2025
Man Pleads Not Guilty to Swallowing Fabergé PendantThe special-edition egg pendant ingested in a New Zealand jewelry store was recovered after a six-day wait.
EditorsDec 17, 2025
2025 Jewelry Rewind: The Best Piece of the Week PicksAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco plays favorites with Piece of the Week, selecting a standout piece of jewelry from each month of 2025.
CollectionsDec 17, 2025
Lucy Hale Stars in Jacquie Aiche’s Holiday CampaignThe “Love and Desire” campaign is inspired by the magic that follows when one’s heart leads the way, said the brand.
GradingDec 17, 2025
SSEF Announces 2025 Scholarship WinnersTwo awardees will receive free tuition for an educational course at the Swiss lab, with flights and lodging included.
MajorsDec 16, 2025
Pandora’s New CEO Will Step Up EarlyBerta de Pablos-Barbier will replace Alexander Lacik at the start of January, two months earlier than expected.
AuctionsDec 16, 2025
Suzanne Belperron, JAR Shine in Sotheby’s First Auctions at New HQSotheby’s held its first two jewelry sales at the Breuer building last week, and they totaled nearly $44 million.
Events & AwardsDec 16, 2025
TJS Now Accepting Scholarship Applications for 2026Winners will receive free registration and lodging for its fourth annual event in Detroit.
ColumnistsDec 16, 2025
Beyond Unboxing: Creative Reveals to Drive Reach and EngagementHere are six ideas for making more engaging content for Instagram Reels and TikTok, courtesy of Duvall O’Steen and Jen Cullen Williams.
Events & AwardsDec 16, 2025
Diamonds Do Good Names 2026 Award RecipientsThe honorees include a notable jewelry brand, an industry veteran, and an independent retailer.
CrimeDec 15, 2025
Men Receive Life Sentences in Home Invasion Murder of Jeweler Carlos Jose Hernandez and Joshua Zuazo were sentenced to life without the possibility of parole in the 2024 murder of Hussein “Sam” Murray.
Policies & IssuesDec 15, 2025
Sara Yood Named Co-Chair of RJC Standards CommitteeYood will serve alongside Eduard Stefanescu, the sustainability manager for C.Hafner, a precious metals refiner in Germany.
IndependentsDec 15, 2025
M.S. Rau to Open Store in AspenThe New Orleans jeweler is also hosting pop-up jewelry boutiques in New York City and Dallas.
AuctionsDec 12, 2025
13.54-Carat Paraíba Tourmaline Sets Records at Christie’sSet in a Tiffany & Co. necklace, it sold for $4.2 million, the highest price and price per carat paid for a Paraíba tourmaline at auction.
MajorsDec 12, 2025
David Webb Reveals Ice-Cold Holiday Window DisplayThe jeweler’s “Deep Freeze” display showcases its iconic jewelry designs frozen in a vintage icebox.
CollectionsDec 12, 2025
Piece of the Week: Oscar Heyman’s Sphene RingTake luxury gifting to new heights this holiday season with the jeweler’s showstopping 12-carat sphene ring.
Events & AwardsDec 12, 2025
IGI Jewelry Design Contest Now Accepting SubmissionsThis year's theme is “Unveiling the Depths of the Ocean.”
