EditorsNov 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: An MVP’s Sapphire Tennis Necklace At the 2025 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto sported a custom necklace made by California retailer Happy Jewelers.
FinancialsFeb 25, 2021
Retail Sales Growth in 2021 Depends on Vaccines, Says NRF
The National Retail Federation is optimistic about the year ahead, so long as the vaccine rollout goes according to plan.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation.
Washington, D.C.—The National Retail Federation’s annual forecast called for a strong year ahead as the vaccine rollout continues.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021.
In a media call about the results, CEO Matthew Shay said the U.S. hasn’t seen this level of sales growth since 2004, noting the average growth has been 4.5 percent over the past five years.
Retail sales grew 6.7 percent year-over-year in 2020 and 3.9 percent in 2019.
“We continue to be optimistic that in the aggregate, macroeconomic conditions are very healthy and will continue to improve,” said Shay.
Online sales in 2021 are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.14 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
The NRF expects to see job gains between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs per month while GDP growth is expected to be between 4.5 and 5 percent.
“This forecast is a snapshot based on the current economic environment,” cautioned Shay, as some uncertainty remains.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the economy’s trajectory is dependent on the effectiveness of the vaccine and its distribution.
The worst-case scenario, said Kleinhenz on the call, includes mutations of the virus or a vaccine that is ineffective.
Presuming that vaccination efforts are successful, Kleinhenz expects the economy to see its fastest growth in more than two decades.
Kleinhenz highlighted several factors to back up the NRF’s optimism, including a second year of “extraordinary savings,” record high stock valuations, increasing home prices, and low interest rates.
Stimulus checks have been especially helpful in boosting consumer spending, he said, particularly for the unemployed and the lower and middle classes.
“The consumer certainly has purchasing power and is willing to spend and we believe that’s going to be important,” said Kleinhenz.
The more affluent consumers have not been spending as much in comparison, he said.
About one-third of stimulus dollars go toward spending with another one-third going to savings and the remaining one-third paying down debt, noted Kleinhenz.
Retailers have benefited from a shift to goods from services over the last nine to 10 months, but the pendulum may swing in the other direction going forward, he said.
As life returns closer to normal, Kleinhenz said consumers will still spend on retail goods, but will spend on services as well, which accounts for 70 percent of consumer spending.
Buying online will stick around, he said, as consumers enjoy the convenience and product selection.
The NRF said it will update its estimates as available data and other factors change.
More on Financials
The Latest
IndependentsNov 07, 2025
Foundrae’s New Palm Beach Location Is a ‘Golden Solarium’The brand’s seventh location combines Foundrae’s symbolic vocabulary with motifs from Florida’s natural surroundings.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
Pink Tourmaline Bracelet, Emerald Suite Take Top Spectrum Honors Pink and purple stones were popular in the AGTA’s design competition this year, as were cameos and ocean themes.
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America Aligns New Mission to Create Meaningful Impact for MembersFrom educational programs, advocacy, and recent MJSA affiliation, Jewelers of America drives progress that elevates businesses of all sizes.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Greenwich St. Jewelers Hosts Raffle Supporting Food RescueAll proceeds from the G. St x Jewel Boxing raffle will go to City Harvest, which works to end hunger in New York City.
Weekly QuizNov 06, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Cornell’s Jewelers Names New PresidentCourtney Cornell is part of the third generation to lead the Rochester, New York-based jeweler.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
De Beers’ Production, Sales Increase in Q3 De Beers also announced more changes in its upper ranks ahead of parent company Anglo American’s pending sale of the company.
WatchesNov 05, 2025
Shinola President Steps Down Just as He Starts Former Signet CEO Mark Light will remain president of Shinola until a replacement for Ulrich Wohn is found.
AuctionsNov 05, 2025
Taylor Swift’s Engagement Ring Designer Makes Her Auction DebutKindred Lubeck of Artifex has three rings she designed with Anup Jogani in Sotheby’s upcoming Gem Drop sale.
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Brilliant Earth’s Q3 Sales Climb 10%The jewelry retailer raised its full-year guidance, with CFO Jeff Kuo describing the company as “very well positioned” for the holidays.
Policies & IssuesNov 04, 2025
Supreme Court to Hear Tariffs Case WednesdayAhead of the hearing, two industry organizations co-signed an amicus brief urging the court to declare Trump’s tariffs unlawful.
MajorsNov 04, 2025
Danny Clark to Become Stuller CEO, Succeeding Matt StullerStuller COO Belit Myers will take on the additional role of president, with all changes effective at the start of 2026.
ColumnistsNov 04, 2025
Peter Smith: What Do Birds Have to Do With the Price of Gold? Smith cautions retailers against expending too much energy on things they can’t control, like the rising price of gold.
TrendsNov 04, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Fall Colors for November BirthdaysCitrine and topaz are birthstones fit for fall as the leaves change color and the holiday season approaches.
IndependentsNov 04, 2025
Weston Jewelers Heads to Fort LauderdaleThe family-owned jeweler will open its fourth store in Florida in late 2027.
CrimeNov 03, 2025
Men Dressed as Construction Workers Burglarize Jeweler’s Home The NYPD is looking for three men who stole a safe and jewelry valued at $3.2 million from the home of a jeweler in Jamaica Hills, Queens.
MajorsNov 03, 2025
Matthew Rosenheim Takes Over as JA Board ChairThe trade organization also announced its executive committee and five new directors.
CollectionsNov 03, 2025
Muse’s ‘Have a Heart’ Collab Returns, Now With DDGThe “Have a Heart x Diamonds Do Good” collection is championed by model and humanitarian Flaviana Matata and will benefit her foundation.
AuctionsNov 03, 2025
Kashmir Sapphire Ring Tops Christie's Online AuctionThe ring, set with a nearly 17-carat Kashmir cabochon sapphire, sold for $1 million.
TrendsOct 31, 2025
Piece of the Week: A Spinner Fit for ‘Frankenstein’This “Mother Father” spinner necklace from Heavenly Vices Fine Jewelry draws inspiration from Victorian Era jewelry.
CrimeOct 31, 2025
5 More Arrested in Louvre Heist, Jewelry Still Missing The suspects were rounded up in Paris and its suburbs on Wednesday night, but none of the stolen jewels were recovered with them.
Recorded WebinarsOct 31, 2025
Watch: How to Master Google Reviews for Your BusinessExperts share top tips on how to encourage positive reviews and handle negative feedback.
Supplier BulletinOct 30, 2025
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessSponsored by the Gemological Institute of America
CrimeOct 30, 2025
29-Year-Old Man Charged in Multiple Seattle-Area Smash and Grabs The suspect faces charges in the August robbery of Menashe & Sons Jewelers and is accused of committing smash and grabs at two pawn shops.
Lab-GrownOct 30, 2025
Alison Lou’s New Collection Uses Lab-Grown Diamonds and ResinThe “Lumière Fine” collection was born from designer Alison Chemla’s interest in the transformative power of light.
TrendsOct 30, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: A Haunted HalloweenShow off your spooky side with these 12 festive jewels.
