IndependentsOct 16, 2025
Retailer Hall of Fame 2025: Jeffrey Zimmer Jeffrey Zimmer's decades of leadership at Reeds Jewelers are defined by integrity, a love of sourcing gemstones, and a heart for community.
FinancialsFeb 25, 2021
Retail Sales Growth in 2021 Depends on Vaccines, Says NRF
The National Retail Federation is optimistic about the year ahead, so long as the vaccine rollout goes according to plan.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation.
Washington, D.C.—The National Retail Federation’s annual forecast called for a strong year ahead as the vaccine rollout continues.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6.5 percent and 8.2 percent to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021.
In a media call about the results, CEO Matthew Shay said the U.S. hasn’t seen this level of sales growth since 2004, noting the average growth has been 4.5 percent over the past five years.
Retail sales grew 6.7 percent year-over-year in 2020 and 3.9 percent in 2019.
“We continue to be optimistic that in the aggregate, macroeconomic conditions are very healthy and will continue to improve,” said Shay.
Online sales in 2021 are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to between $1.14 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
The NRF expects to see job gains between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs per month while GDP growth is expected to be between 4.5 and 5 percent.
“This forecast is a snapshot based on the current economic environment,” cautioned Shay, as some uncertainty remains.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted the economy’s trajectory is dependent on the effectiveness of the vaccine and its distribution.
The worst-case scenario, said Kleinhenz on the call, includes mutations of the virus or a vaccine that is ineffective.
Presuming that vaccination efforts are successful, Kleinhenz expects the economy to see its fastest growth in more than two decades.
Kleinhenz highlighted several factors to back up the NRF’s optimism, including a second year of “extraordinary savings,” record high stock valuations, increasing home prices, and low interest rates.
Stimulus checks have been especially helpful in boosting consumer spending, he said, particularly for the unemployed and the lower and middle classes.
“The consumer certainly has purchasing power and is willing to spend and we believe that’s going to be important,” said Kleinhenz.
The more affluent consumers have not been spending as much in comparison, he said.
About one-third of stimulus dollars go toward spending with another one-third going to savings and the remaining one-third paying down debt, noted Kleinhenz.
Retailers have benefited from a shift to goods from services over the last nine to 10 months, but the pendulum may swing in the other direction going forward, he said.
As life returns closer to normal, Kleinhenz said consumers will still spend on retail goods, but will spend on services as well, which accounts for 70 percent of consumer spending.
Buying online will stick around, he said, as consumers enjoy the convenience and product selection.
The NRF said it will update its estimates as available data and other factors change.
More on Financials
The Latest
AuctionsOct 16, 2025
Sotheby’s Introduces Custom Jewelry ServiceThe new high jewelry design and production process takes 30 days or less from concept to completion, the auction house said.
MajorsOct 16, 2025
Oscar Heyman’s Holiday Catalog Is Out, and It’s SpectacularThe holiday catalog for 2025 features never-before-seen images of more than 100 one-of-a-kind masterpieces.
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
CollectionsOct 16, 2025
Foundrae Adds To ‘United in Love’ CollectionThe brand has released a second installment of its collection of traditional and non-traditional commitment heirlooms.
Weekly QuizOct 16, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsOct 15, 2025
Retailer Hall of Fame 2025: Kathy CoreyCorey rescued New England chain Day’s Jewelers, preserving its legacy with strong people skills, pragmatism, and a “get-it-done” attitude.
CrimeOct 15, 2025
Men Receive Lengthy Prison Sentences for 2023 Murder of Colorado JewelerCharles Robinson Shay was sentenced to life in prison plus 120 years while his accomplice, Michael James McCormack, got 75 years.
Brought to you by
JA New York Fall Is Right Around the CornerThe upcoming show provides savvy retailers with the opportunity to stock their cases with best sellers in advance of the holiday season.
Events & AwardsOct 15, 2025
‘Douriean Fletcher: Jewelry of the Afrofuture’ Opens at MADThe Museum of Arts and Design's new exhibition features 75 pieces by the designer, best known for her work in the “Black Panther” films.
Events & AwardsOct 15, 2025
JCK, Luxury to Debut New Watch Section in Vegas Next YearTimepieces at Luxury will take place at The Venetian and, like Luxury, will be invitation-only for the first two days.
AuctionsOct 15, 2025
Christie's Announces New Jewelry Department LeadershipThe auction house named a new global head of jewelry, as well as a new head of the jewelry department for the Americas.
IndependentsOct 14, 2025
Retailer Hall of Fame 2025: Tom DixonAs chairman of Schwanke-Kasten Jewelers, Tom Dixon has been tasked with honoring the past and shaping the future of the family-run store.
Events & AwardsOct 14, 2025
Here Are the Winners of the BIJC, JA ‘Emerging Jewelers’ Grant Katty Villapando Lyte and Mica Rencher received a $10,000 grant for their business, Shimmer Culture LLC.
IndependentsOct 14, 2025
Day’s Jewelers Crafts Custom Jewelry for No.1 NBA Draft Pick Cooper FlaggThe parents of the Dallas Mavericks rookie bought their engagement ring at a Day’s store in Bangor, Maine, in 1997.
SourcingOct 14, 2025
Pragnell Debuts Kitulo Garnet Jewelry The UK-based brand sourced the gemstones, which are fully traceable, from an artisanal mining community in Tanzania.
CollectionsOct 10, 2025
Count Down to the Holidays With Astrid & Miyu’s Advent CalendarsThe trio of Advent calendars include a version with 18-karat gold and lab-grown diamond jewelry in a red lacquer jewelry box.
CollectionsOct 10, 2025
Piece of the Week: Marla Aaron’s ‘Nymphenburg Lock’Created in collaboration with Nymphenburg Porcelain, the lock is part of a four-piece collection that took two years to bring to fruition.
MajorsOct 10, 2025
Frederick Goldman Names New VP of SalesJewelry industry veteran Alisa Bunger has taken on the role.
SourcingOct 09, 2025
Feriel Zerouki Is Leaving De Beers The company and industry leader’s two-decade tenure with De Beers will come to a close at the end of the month.
AuctionsOct 09, 2025
This Fabergé Egg Could Crack $27M At Auction“The Winter Egg” set the world auction record for a Fabergé piece twice at previous Christie’s sales.
MajorsOct 09, 2025
Sy Kessler Buying Watch Batteries as Silver Hits Record High The company will pay 1.5x silver’s current spot price for each pound of silver oxide batteries submitted.
CollectionsOct 09, 2025
Katkim Launches First Men’s CollectionThe line includes a “Shadow” series crafted exclusively for the new men’s offering and reimagined styles from the brand’s core collections.
SourcingOct 09, 2025
Gemfields’ Mini Mixed-Quality Ruby Auction Garners $11MThe rough on offer was recovered from a newer area at the Montepuez mine.
SourcingOct 08, 2025
In ‘Storied Diamond,’ Jared Jewelers Is Emphasizing the Journey The retailer’s new collection of engagement rings and fashion jewelry is set with natural diamonds that are traceable via blockchain.
CollectionsOct 08, 2025
Emily P. Wheeler Shifts Into Neutral for Latest ‘Ombré’ CollectionThe champagne colorway in her newest “Ombré” collection combines white and trendy brown diamonds, a departure from her usual vibrant hues.
CollectionsOct 08, 2025
Tsuba Designs Inspire Monica Rich Kosann’s New CharmsKosann partnered with the Museum of Fine Arts, Boston, to create a set of necklaces inspired by the artwork on samurai sword handguards.
CrimeOct 07, 2025
Men Who Posed as Utility Workers Found Guilty in Jeweler’s MurderCarlos Jose Hernandez and Joshua Zuazo face life in prison for the October 2024 murder of 72-year-old Detroit-area jeweler Hussein Murray.
