Sourcing

5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025

SourcingMar 12, 2025

5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025

The industry is changing as it grapples with new realities around distribution, supply, and the need for consistent, effective marketing.

A rough diamond and a polished diamond
Diamond industry analysts Paul Zimnisky and Pranay Narvekar, along with industry veterans in India, weigh in on the current state of the diamond market and its prospects for 2025. (Photo courtesy of Venus Jewel)
It’s been a turbulent five years for the diamond industry from the post-COVID boom of 2021, through the mini-cycles of “slump-recover-slump” between mid-2022 and late 2024.

So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?

National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.

Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.

1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.

And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.

Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”

Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.

In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index

Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious. 

They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.  

While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.

“The industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.” — Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting

2. Supply Will Plateau, Demand Will Grow
There has been a steady decline in rough supply to the diamond market since the highs of 2022.

Both De Beers Group and Alrosa reported significant drops sales in 2024 and have estimated that 2025 sales may sink even lower. 

Zimnisky estimates that both companies are now maintaining higher rough inventory levels as compared with a year ago.

He projects that the total annual supply of rough to the industry will be in the range of 105 to 115 million carats.

Looking ahead, Narvekar projects the supply of natural rough will continue at the current levels for the next five to seven years, at least.

“Retail consumption has remained virtually stagnant for the last 15 years or so, barring the post-COVID spike,” he said, adding, “the industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.”

3. Rough Distribution Changes, Midstream Consolidation
Consolidation and greater coordination—these are the buzzwords for the diamond supply chain going forward.

There is a growing understanding that maintaining stability across the pipeline has to be a shared responsibility.

Meanwhile, rough distribution systems will be modified as the Okavango Diamond Company, the rough diamond sales and marketing company owned by the Botswana government, gears up to sell the additional rough that will start accruing to it, per the country’s new 10-year sales agreement with De Beers, and Angola seeks to step up its sales. 

It remains to be seen what shape beneficiation will take as the industry needs to strike a balance between socio-political goals and cost-effective operations.

Dubai has emerged as a strong player in distribution, but this could change following recent modifications to taxation in India designed to simplify compliance and encourage diamond miners to do business with Indian companies. 

Miners may consider direct sales to manufacturers from within the Special Notified Zones, set up by the Indian government in Mumbai and Surat, more attractive. 

Consolidation also has occurred in the midstream. A sizable portion of the polishing capacity in Surat has shifted to lab-grown diamonds, and the process will continue. 

The share of larger players may rise, with small and mid-sized manufacturers remaining mostly in niche areas. 

“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation.”— Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst

4. Differentiation Needed in Lab Grown
Lab-grown diamonds are here to stay. How will they impact the emerging landscape?

A November 2024 article by McKinsey & Company titled, “The Diamond Industry Is at an Inflection Point,” outlines possible scenarios for the market.

“First, lab-grown diamonds could take over the majority of the market outside niche luxury segments,” the article states. 

“Second, the price of lab-grown diamonds could drop so low they effectively become fashion accessories that no longer compete with diamonds … (and) assuming consumers cannot tell the difference between natural stones and lab-grown diamonds, all diamonds could simply go out of fashion.”

Zimnisky stressed that clear differentiation is needed. 

“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation for the larger category, which has negative consequences for the whole supply chain.” 

Narvekar reiterated the warning he issued in 2022—lab grown is not a diamond business. 

“It has to be marketed as a distinct product, not as a substitute for a natural or else both may be dragged down,” he said. 

Zimnisky said there is room for both. 

According to his calculations and estimates, “approximately 40 percent of current man-made diamond sales are incremental to the larger diamond industry, and forecasted to amount to some $7 billion in 2024, i.e., these are diamond sales that would not exist if lab-grown diamonds did not exist.”

“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive.”— Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting

5. Bigger Budgets, Better Marketing?
Who will shoulder the burden of promoting diamonds to the public? 

The emerging consensus is that the entire pipeline should become collective custodians of protecting the “diamond dream.”

On one side, De Beers, alongside its efforts under the Natural Diamond Council, initiated marketing and promotion collaborations with major retailers across key markets—the United States (Signet Jewelers), India (Tanishq), and China (Chow Tai Fook)—in 2024.

In India, this went a step further, with the miner collaborating with the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council to launch the India Natural Diamond Retailer Alliance (Indra), a platform to involve small and mid-sized retailers in the effort.

On the other, a proposal floated at the Dubai Diamond Conference last year by midstream organizations including the Antwerp World Diamond Centre, the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre to expand the budget for marketing diamonds with contributions of a fixed minimal percentage on every sale of rough has been broadly welcomed. 

The idea, if it gets formalized, will ensure that there will be a more consistent stream of money spent on marketing diamonds over a prolonged period of time.

Narvekar is clear that without such an increase in marketing and promotion, the future remains dim. He pointed out that the total amount the entire diamond industry spends on marketing is less than what one single company, Apple, allots to this vital facet of business. 

“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive,” he concluded.

The Latest

agta-sb-0925.png
Supplier BulletinSep 18, 2025
Will Your Design Define 2026? Enter The Spectrum & Cutting Edge Awards

Sponsored by American Gem Trade Association

Stock image of a woman shopping online with credit card
SurveysSep 18, 2025
Deloitte Thinks the Holidays Will Be Merry, PwC Isn’t So Sure

In its holiday report, PwC said the season will be more like jazz—improvisational and less predictable—than an easy-to-follow melody.

Pandora distribution facility Maryland rendering
MajorsSep 18, 2025
Pandora to Open New Distribution Center in Maryland

The jewelry giant will relocate its existing facility to a larger space in Anne Arundel.

reDollar-fine-jewelry-department.jpg
Brought to you by
reDollar.com Is Rolling Out the Next Level Jewelry, Diamond & Watch Consignment Program

With their unmatched services and low fees, reDollar.com is challenging some big names in the online consignment world.

Garçon New York Campaign Imagery
CollectionsSep 18, 2025
Ashley Zhang Launches Garçon New York

The designer, who is the creative force behind her namesake brand, has now started a new mini line focusing on chains for fathers and sons.

Weekly QuizSep 12, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Hill & Co. AI Strategy Graphic
TechnologySep 18, 2025
Hill & Co. Launches AI Strategy Program

The 21-day program was designed to help jewelry retailers identify opportunities and eliminate inefficiencies with AI.

Set of four Patek Philippe “Star Caliber 2000” pocket watches
AuctionsSep 17, 2025
Mythical Set of Patek Philippe Pocket Watches Expected to Sell for $10M+

A set of four Patek Philippe “Star Caliber 2000” pocket watches is part of Sotheby’s upcoming auction in Abu Dhabi.

japac-btyb.png
Brought to you by
Rallying Call for the Jewelry Industry on Tariffs and Other Key Issues

Jewelers of America is leading the charge to protect the industry amidst rising economic threats.

Journey of a Jeweler by Silvia Furmanovich
TrendsSep 17, 2025
Silvia Furmanovich’s Book Tells the ‘Journey of a Jeweler’

The Brazilian jeweler’s latest book marks her namesake brand’s 25th anniversary and tells the tale of her worldwide collaborations.

1978 Rolex Submariner Ref. 1680 Tiffany Dial
WatchesSep 17, 2025
Bob’s Watches Acquires Vintage Rolex Won on ‘The Price is Right’

The Submariner Ref. 1680 with a Tiffany & Co. dial came from the original owner, who won it as a prize on the game show in the 1970s.

Jewelers Mutual Group logo
TechnologySep 17, 2025
Jewelers Mutual Launches Shipping Solution App for Shopify

The new integration allows users to manage shipments directly from the Shopify dashboard.

Shot of one of the pools at the Omni La Costa Resort & Spa in Carlsbad, California
EditorsSep 16, 2025
Out & About: 7 Great Quotes From Converge in Carlsbad

At Converge 2025, Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff attended sessions on DEI, tariffs, security, and more. Here are her top takeaways.

Crime police cars
CrimeSep 16, 2025
2 Robbery Suspects Killed in California Pawn Shop Shootout

Six people were shot last week at an Oakland cash-for-gold shop as employees exchanged gunfire with individuals trying to rob the store.

Chopard Ice Cube Modular Necklace
CollectionsSep 16, 2025
Chopard Adds New Designs to Its ‘Ice Cube’ Capsule Collection

The jeweler has expanded its high jewelry offering, which launched last year, with new pieces featuring its cube motif that debuted in 1999.

Kristen Bell, Angela Bassett, Lisa Manobal
EditorsSep 15, 2025
Skipping the Necklace, Embracing Snakes: The Best Jewelry From the 2025 Emmy Awards

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco shares eight of her favorite jewelry looks from the 77th annual Primetime Emmy Awards, held Sunday night.

Holiday presents in gift boxes
SurveysSep 15, 2025
Resilient Shoppers to Boost Holiday Retail Sales, Says Deloitte

It’s predicting a rise in retail sales this holiday season despite economic uncertainty and elevated inflation.

Buffalo Emerald
SourcingSep 15, 2025
Gemfields Achieves $32M at High-Quality Emerald Auction

It included the sale of the 11,685-carat “Imboo” emerald that was recently discovered at Kagem.

8.33-carat emerald-cut no-oil Brazilian emerald, A. Kleiman & Co.
SourcingSep 15, 2025
AGTA Elects 8 Members to Board of Directors

The newly elected directors will officially take office in February 2026 and will be introduced at the organization’s membership meeting.

Rough montana sapphire
EditorsSep 12, 2025
Out & About: Mining Sapphires in Rock Creek, Montana

Associate Editor Lauren McLemore headed out West for a visit to Potentate Mining’s operation hosted by gemstone wholesaler Parlé Gems.

Arunashi Fordite and Rhodolite Earrings
TrendsSep 12, 2025
Piece of the Week: Arunashi’s Fordite and Rhodolite Earrings

Fordite is a man-made material created from the layers of dried enamel paint that dripped onto the floors of automotive factories.

Susan Jacques and Al Gilbertson
Events & AwardsSep 12, 2025
Al Gilbertson Wins 2025 Robert M. Shipley Award

Gilbertson has worked as a researcher, jeweler, lapidary artist, appraiser, and business owner throughout his decades in the industry.

Supreme Court stock image
Policies & IssuesSep 11, 2025
Supreme Court to Hear Tariffs Case in November

A decision likely won’t come until January 2026 at the earliest, and the tariffs remain in effect until then.

Tabayer’s Nordstrom Shop-in-Shop
MajorsSep 11, 2025
Tabayer Opens Nordstrom Shop-In-Shop

Located in the revamped jewelry hall at the retailer’s New York City flagship, this opening is Tabayer’s first shop-in-shop.

De Beers education app on mobile phone
SourcingSep 11, 2025
Need to Sell More Natural Diamonds? De Beers Has an App for That

The new, free app offers accessible educational content, like games and podcasts, for U.S. retailers.

Gold jewelry on a scale
MajorsSep 10, 2025
Stuller to Swap Gold Scrap for Full Credit to Account

As the gold price rises, the manufacturer is offering a 100 percent payout through Sept. 30 for gold clean scrap.

Jacob and Co Loewe headphones
SourcingSep 10, 2025
Tech Meets Style in the New Loewe x Jacob & Co. Headphones

Jacob & Co. partnered with the German technology company on two pairs of headphones, one set with diamonds and the other with sapphires.

Tiffany & Co Favrile Beetle Necklace in Frankenstein
TrendsSep 10, 2025
Tiffany & Co. Archival Jewels Bring Life to ‘Frankenstein’

Guillermo del Toro’s 2025 “Frankenstein” will feature 27 jewels and objects from the storied brand, including pieces from its archives.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy