CollectionsNov 20, 2025
Rebecca Rau Jewels Debuts With ‘Then & Now’ CollectionRau is a fourth-generation art and antique dealer from M.S. Rau gallery whose first jewelry collection merges artifacts with modern design.
SourcingMar 12, 2025
5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025
The industry is changing as it grapples with new realities around distribution, supply, and the need for consistent, effective marketing.
Diamond industry analysts Paul Zimnisky and Pranay Narvekar, along with industry veterans in India, weigh in on the current state of the diamond market and its prospects for 2025. (Photo courtesy of Venus Jewel)
It’s been a turbulent five years for the diamond industry from the post-COVID boom of 2021, through the mini-cycles of “slump-recover-slump” between mid-2022 and late 2024.
So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?
National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.
Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.
1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.
And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.
Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”
Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.
In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index
Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious.
They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.
While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.
So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?
National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.
Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.
1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.
And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.
Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”
Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.
In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index
Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious.
They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.
While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.
“The industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.” — Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting
2. Supply Will Plateau, Demand Will Grow
There has been a steady decline in rough supply to the diamond market since the highs of 2022.
Both De Beers Group and Alrosa reported significant drops sales in 2024 and have estimated that 2025 sales may sink even lower.
Zimnisky estimates that both companies are now maintaining higher rough inventory levels as compared with a year ago.
He projects that the total annual supply of rough to the industry will be in the range of 105 to 115 million carats.
Looking ahead, Narvekar projects the supply of natural rough will continue at the current levels for the next five to seven years, at least.
“Retail consumption has remained virtually stagnant for the last 15 years or so, barring the post-COVID spike,” he said, adding, “the industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.”
3. Rough Distribution Changes, Midstream Consolidation
Consolidation and greater coordination—these are the buzzwords for the diamond supply chain going forward.
There is a growing understanding that maintaining stability across the pipeline has to be a shared responsibility.
Meanwhile, rough distribution systems will be modified as the Okavango Diamond Company, the rough diamond sales and marketing company owned by the Botswana government, gears up to sell the additional rough that will start accruing to it, per the country’s new 10-year sales agreement with De Beers, and Angola seeks to step up its sales.
It remains to be seen what shape beneficiation will take as the industry needs to strike a balance between socio-political goals and cost-effective operations.
Dubai has emerged as a strong player in distribution, but this could change following recent modifications to taxation in India designed to simplify compliance and encourage diamond miners to do business with Indian companies.
Miners may consider direct sales to manufacturers from within the Special Notified Zones, set up by the Indian government in Mumbai and Surat, more attractive.
Consolidation also has occurred in the midstream. A sizable portion of the polishing capacity in Surat has shifted to lab-grown diamonds, and the process will continue.
The share of larger players may rise, with small and mid-sized manufacturers remaining mostly in niche areas.
“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation.”— Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
4. Differentiation Needed in Lab Grown
Lab-grown diamonds are here to stay. How will they impact the emerging landscape?
A November 2024 article by McKinsey & Company titled, “The Diamond Industry Is at an Inflection Point,” outlines possible scenarios for the market.
“First, lab-grown diamonds could take over the majority of the market outside niche luxury segments,” the article states.
“Second, the price of lab-grown diamonds could drop so low they effectively become fashion accessories that no longer compete with diamonds … (and) assuming consumers cannot tell the difference between natural stones and lab-grown diamonds, all diamonds could simply go out of fashion.”
Zimnisky stressed that clear differentiation is needed.
“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation for the larger category, which has negative consequences for the whole supply chain.”
Narvekar reiterated the warning he issued in 2022—lab grown is not a diamond business.
“It has to be marketed as a distinct product, not as a substitute for a natural or else both may be dragged down,” he said.
Zimnisky said there is room for both.
According to his calculations and estimates, “approximately 40 percent of current man-made diamond sales are incremental to the larger diamond industry, and forecasted to amount to some $7 billion in 2024, i.e., these are diamond sales that would not exist if lab-grown diamonds did not exist.”
“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive.”— Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting
5. Bigger Budgets, Better Marketing?
Who will shoulder the burden of promoting diamonds to the public?
The emerging consensus is that the entire pipeline should become collective custodians of protecting the “diamond dream.”
On one side, De Beers, alongside its efforts under the Natural Diamond Council, initiated marketing and promotion collaborations with major retailers across key markets—the United States (Signet Jewelers), India (Tanishq), and China (Chow Tai Fook)—in 2024.
In India, this went a step further, with the miner collaborating with the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council to launch the India Natural Diamond Retailer Alliance (Indra), a platform to involve small and mid-sized retailers in the effort.
On the other, a proposal floated at the Dubai Diamond Conference last year by midstream organizations including the Antwerp World Diamond Centre, the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre to expand the budget for marketing diamonds with contributions of a fixed minimal percentage on every sale of rough has been broadly welcomed.
The idea, if it gets formalized, will ensure that there will be a more consistent stream of money spent on marketing diamonds over a prolonged period of time.
Narvekar is clear that without such an increase in marketing and promotion, the future remains dim. He pointed out that the total amount the entire diamond industry spends on marketing is less than what one single company, Apple, allots to this vital facet of business.
“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive,” he concluded.
More on Sourcing
The Latest
AuctionsNov 20, 2025
Vanderbilt Jewels Shine at Phillips Sale, Pink Diamond WithdrawnA 43-carat sapphire brooch from the Vanderbilt collection was the top lot of the Geneva sale.
Policies & IssuesNov 20, 2025
RJC Names New Executive DirectorFormer De Beers sustainability leader Purvi Shah will take over the role in February 2026.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
WatchesNov 20, 2025
LVMH Takes Minority Stake in Citizen Group-Owned Movement Maker La Joux-Perret is based in La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland, and makes solar quartz as well as mechanical watch movements.
Weekly QuizNov 13, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
GradingNov 20, 2025
Julia Griffith Joins SSEF as Head of EducationShe previously taught at Gem-A and is the founder of The Gem Academy.
CollectionsNov 19, 2025
Larkspur & Hawk Celebrates 25 Years With Helena Bonham Carter CampaignThe British actress and her daughter modeled pieces from the brand’s new “Palette” capsule for its “Once Upon a Time” holiday campaign.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
TechnologyNov 19, 2025
Google Has a New Form for Reporting ‘Review Bombing’ Attacks Plus, the tech giant shares the steps retailers should take if they believe they’re a victim of a review extortion scam.
IndependentsNov 19, 2025
Houston Jeweler Keith Shaftel Retires, Next Generation Steps In Danny and Gaby Shaftel are now Shaftel Diamonds’ CEO and chief operating officer, respectively.
TrendsNov 19, 2025
Midas Chain Releases 2025 Holiday Style GuideThe jewelry manufacturer’s seasonal offering features its new “Melodie” bangles, as well as mini stud earrings and layering pieces.
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
NYC Jewelry Week 2025: 12 Must-See EventsWith more than 140 activations taking place in New York City now through Nov. 23, these 12 events are can’t-miss moments.
MajorsNov 18, 2025
Lugano Diamonds Files for Bankruptcy, Looking for BuyerThe Chapter 11 filing follows the resignation of CEO Moti Ferder, who stepped down after an investigation into the company’s finances.
Events & AwardsNov 18, 2025
A Giant, Bejeweled Moldy Berry Is on Display in LAThe artwork is part of an exhibition featuring works by Kathleen Ryan, an artist known for her gemstone-studded rotting fruit sculptures.
CrimeNov 17, 2025
Police Searching for 2 Suspects in Murder of Father, Son Jewelers Faustino Alamo Dominguez and his son, 25-year-old Luis Angel Alamo, were gunned down following an armed robbery at their jewelry store.
GradingNov 17, 2025
IGI Announces New President of North AmericaTiffany & Co. veteran Jeffrey Bennett has stepped into the role.
MajorsNov 17, 2025
Look Inside Robbins Brothers Fine Jewelers’ New Pasadena FlagshipThe showroom is located in a historic 1920s building in the Playhouse District.
Policies & IssuesNov 14, 2025
U.S., Switzerland Reach Deal That Drops Tariff to 15%The Swiss government announced the deal, which cuts the tax on Swiss imports by more than half, on social media Friday morning.
AuctionsNov 14, 2025
Napoleon’s Diamond Brooch Blows Away Auction Estimates A buyer paid $4.4 million for the piece, which Napoleon wore on his hat for special occasions and left behind when he fled Waterloo.
FinancialsNov 14, 2025
Richemont’s Q2 Jewelry Sales Up 12%Plus, how tariffs and the rising price of gold are affecting its watch and jewelry brands.
CollectionsNov 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Silvia Furmanovich’s ‘Butterflies in Flight’ Jewelry BoxFurmanovich designed the box to hold Mellerio’s “Color Queen,” a high jewelry collection consisting of 10 rings.
Events & AwardsNov 14, 2025
JCK Names New Event DirectorJennifer Hopf, who has been with JCK since 2022, will lead the execution of the long-running jewelry trade show.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
127-Year-Old New Orleans Jeweler to CloseAdler’s Jewelry is set to close its two stores as 82-year-old owner Coleman E. Adler II retires.
IndependentsNov 13, 2025
Green Lake Jewelry Works to Move to New Seattle StudioFounder Jim Tuttle shared how a dedication to craftsmanship and meaningful custom jewelry fueled the retailer’s double-digit growth.
MajorsNov 13, 2025
Vahan Jewelry Founder Leon ‘Sacha’ Der Calousdian Dies at 85The third-generation jeweler is remembered as a passionate creative with a love of art, traveling and sailboat racing.
CrimeNov 12, 2025
Father, Son Jewelers in Chicago Victims in Double Homicide JSA and Cook County Crime Stoppers are both offering rewards for information leading to the arrest of the suspect or suspects involved.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
‘Mellon Blue’ Diamond Sells for $7M Less Than It Did a Decade AgoA buyer paid $25.6 million for the diamond at Christie’s on Tuesday. In 2014, Sotheby’s sold the same stone for $32.6 million.
