CollectionsAug 14, 2025
In Midst of ‘Sardine Girl Summer,’ Pippa Small Looks to ‘Flounder Fall’Her new “Ocean” collection was inspired by Myanmar’s traditional articulated fish jewelry, with depictions of flounder, catfish, and more.
SourcingMar 12, 2025
5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025
The industry is changing as it grapples with new realities around distribution, supply, and the need for consistent, effective marketing.
Diamond industry analysts Paul Zimnisky and Pranay Narvekar, along with industry veterans in India, weigh in on the current state of the diamond market and its prospects for 2025. (Photo courtesy of Venus Jewel)
It’s been a turbulent five years for the diamond industry from the post-COVID boom of 2021, through the mini-cycles of “slump-recover-slump” between mid-2022 and late 2024.
So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?
National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.
Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.
1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.
And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.
Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”
Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.
In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index
Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious.
They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.
While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.
So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?
National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.
Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.
1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.
And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.
Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”
Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.
In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index
Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious.
They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.
While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.
“The industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.” — Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting
2. Supply Will Plateau, Demand Will Grow
There has been a steady decline in rough supply to the diamond market since the highs of 2022.
Both De Beers Group and Alrosa reported significant drops sales in 2024 and have estimated that 2025 sales may sink even lower.
Zimnisky estimates that both companies are now maintaining higher rough inventory levels as compared with a year ago.
He projects that the total annual supply of rough to the industry will be in the range of 105 to 115 million carats.
Looking ahead, Narvekar projects the supply of natural rough will continue at the current levels for the next five to seven years, at least.
“Retail consumption has remained virtually stagnant for the last 15 years or so, barring the post-COVID spike,” he said, adding, “the industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.”
3. Rough Distribution Changes, Midstream Consolidation
Consolidation and greater coordination—these are the buzzwords for the diamond supply chain going forward.
There is a growing understanding that maintaining stability across the pipeline has to be a shared responsibility.
Meanwhile, rough distribution systems will be modified as the Okavango Diamond Company, the rough diamond sales and marketing company owned by the Botswana government, gears up to sell the additional rough that will start accruing to it, per the country’s new 10-year sales agreement with De Beers, and Angola seeks to step up its sales.
It remains to be seen what shape beneficiation will take as the industry needs to strike a balance between socio-political goals and cost-effective operations.
Dubai has emerged as a strong player in distribution, but this could change following recent modifications to taxation in India designed to simplify compliance and encourage diamond miners to do business with Indian companies.
Miners may consider direct sales to manufacturers from within the Special Notified Zones, set up by the Indian government in Mumbai and Surat, more attractive.
Consolidation also has occurred in the midstream. A sizable portion of the polishing capacity in Surat has shifted to lab-grown diamonds, and the process will continue.
The share of larger players may rise, with small and mid-sized manufacturers remaining mostly in niche areas.
“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation.”— Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
4. Differentiation Needed in Lab Grown
Lab-grown diamonds are here to stay. How will they impact the emerging landscape?
A November 2024 article by McKinsey & Company titled, “The Diamond Industry Is at an Inflection Point,” outlines possible scenarios for the market.
“First, lab-grown diamonds could take over the majority of the market outside niche luxury segments,” the article states.
“Second, the price of lab-grown diamonds could drop so low they effectively become fashion accessories that no longer compete with diamonds … (and) assuming consumers cannot tell the difference between natural stones and lab-grown diamonds, all diamonds could simply go out of fashion.”
Zimnisky stressed that clear differentiation is needed.
“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation for the larger category, which has negative consequences for the whole supply chain.”
Narvekar reiterated the warning he issued in 2022—lab grown is not a diamond business.
“It has to be marketed as a distinct product, not as a substitute for a natural or else both may be dragged down,” he said.
Zimnisky said there is room for both.
According to his calculations and estimates, “approximately 40 percent of current man-made diamond sales are incremental to the larger diamond industry, and forecasted to amount to some $7 billion in 2024, i.e., these are diamond sales that would not exist if lab-grown diamonds did not exist.”
“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive.”— Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting
5. Bigger Budgets, Better Marketing?
Who will shoulder the burden of promoting diamonds to the public?
The emerging consensus is that the entire pipeline should become collective custodians of protecting the “diamond dream.”
On one side, De Beers, alongside its efforts under the Natural Diamond Council, initiated marketing and promotion collaborations with major retailers across key markets—the United States (Signet Jewelers), India (Tanishq), and China (Chow Tai Fook)—in 2024.
In India, this went a step further, with the miner collaborating with the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council to launch the India Natural Diamond Retailer Alliance (Indra), a platform to involve small and mid-sized retailers in the effort.
On the other, a proposal floated at the Dubai Diamond Conference last year by midstream organizations including the Antwerp World Diamond Centre, the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre to expand the budget for marketing diamonds with contributions of a fixed minimal percentage on every sale of rough has been broadly welcomed.
The idea, if it gets formalized, will ensure that there will be a more consistent stream of money spent on marketing diamonds over a prolonged period of time.
Narvekar is clear that without such an increase in marketing and promotion, the future remains dim. He pointed out that the total amount the entire diamond industry spends on marketing is less than what one single company, Apple, allots to this vital facet of business.
“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive,” he concluded.
More on Sourcing
The Latest
MajorsAug 14, 2025
Casio America Names New CEOLongtime Casio executive Yusuke Suzuki is the new president and CEO of Casio’s U.S. subsidiary.
TrendsAug 13, 2025
Cristiano Ronaldo Proposes With Gigantic Oval-Cut DiamondModel Georgina Rodríguez received a rock of an engagement ring, with her diamond estimated to be 35 carats, experts say.
Brought to you by
Taking the Moment Head On: How Rio Grande Champions the Present & Future of Fine JewelryAs a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.
TrendsAug 13, 2025
Colorado Jeweler, Whiskey Maker Collab on Ring GiveawayThree winners will receive a custom ring from Honest Hands Ring Co. inlaid with a piece of history from Denver-based distillery Stranahan’s.
Weekly QuizAug 08, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SurveysAug 13, 2025
These Are The 25 Hottest Retailers, Says NRFJD Sports and Wawa were among the fastest-growing retail companies in the U.S. last year.
SourcingAug 13, 2025
Columbia Gem House Launches Winza Sapphires, RubiesThe new inventory, all untreated, features vibrant hues and unique bicolor combinations.
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench JewelersThe Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.
SourcingAug 12, 2025
Gemfields Sells Fabergé for $50MAcquired by a tech investor, the historic brand will continue to focus on jewelry, accessories, and timepieces.
Policies & IssuesAug 12, 2025
Higher Tariff on Chinese Imports Paused for 90 Days, Trump SaysPresident Donald Trump issued an executive order extending the pause on higher tariffs to November as negotiations with China continue.
CollectionsAug 12, 2025
Jacquie Aiche’s New Collection Harnesses the Energy of the ThunderbirdThe “Thunderbird Slab” collection features a thunderbird motif as a symbol of power, protection, and boundless possibility.
ColumnistsAug 12, 2025
Creative Connecting: How to Take a Better HeadshotColumnists Jen Cullen Williams and Duvall O’Steen share tips on how to elevate your professional image.
CrimeAug 11, 2025
Man Convicted of First-Degree Murder in Death of Colorado JewelerPeter Damian Arguello, a jeweler in the Denver suburb of Wheat Ridge, was found dead inside his store in November 2023.
IndependentsAug 11, 2025
Lisa Bridge to Depart Ben Bridge JewelerThe retailer, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, is becoming part of the Berkshire Hathaway Jewelry Group with Helzberg.
Events & AwardsAug 11, 2025
Bethenny Frankel to Give Keynote at CBG’s Experience ShowThe Continental Buying Group’s 2025 Tampa Experience Show is slated for Sept. 8-10.
EditorsAug 11, 2025
The Colors Expected to Be On-Trend in a Couple YearsAssociate Editor Lauren McLemore recently attended a fabrics trade show where a trend forecaster shared her predictions for summer 2027.
FinancialsAug 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth’s Q2 Sales Up 3% as Engagement Ring Sales RiseThe company raised its full-year sales guidance while noting it has not yet assessed the potential impact of the latest tariff news.
Events & AwardsAug 08, 2025
GJEPC’s Jewellers for Hope Celebrates 10 Years of FundraisingThe organization has raised more than $1.3 million for charity since its inception.
TrendsAug 08, 2025
Piece of the Week: Rahaminov Diamonds’ Bezel BangleThe brand’s latest iteration of a bezel-set diamond bangle features clean lines and a timeless design for a new modern silhouette.
WatchesAug 07, 2025
Bulova’s New Collection Honors Tony BennettThe first watch in the series commemorates his participation in the Civil Rights movement, marching from Selma to Montgomery in 1965.
Lab-GrownAug 07, 2025
Chatham Releases Catalog for Loose Lab-Grown GemstonesThe catalog contains a complete listing of all the loose gemstones in stock, as well as information about the properties of each stone.
TechnologyAug 07, 2025
Rembrandt Charms Debuts New Website, Bird CharmsThe company added a retailer dashboard to its site and three new birds to its charm collection, the cardinal, blue jay, and hummingbird.
Policies & IssuesAug 06, 2025
Tariff on India to Rise to 50%, Trump Says An additional 25 percent tariff has been added to the previously announced 25 percent.
MajorsAug 06, 2025
Claire’s Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy AgainThe jewelry and accessories retailer plans to close 18 stores as part of the proceedings.
IndependentsAug 06, 2025
Smith & Son Jewelers to Close 107-Year-Old Location Its Springfield, Massachusetts, store is set to close as owner Andrew Smith heads into retirement.
CollectionsAug 06, 2025
Zahn-Z Swims With Whales in ‘Beluga’ CollectionDesigner Hiba Husayni looked to the whale’s melon shaped-head, blowhole, and fluke for her new chunky gold offerings.
TrendsAug 06, 2025
Paola De Luca to Release Trendbook 2027+She will present the 23rd edition of the trend forecasting book at Vicenzaoro on Sept. 7.
