Sourcing

5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025

SourcingMar 12, 2025

5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025

The industry is changing as it grapples with new realities around distribution, supply, and the need for consistent, effective marketing.

A rough diamond and a polished diamond
Diamond industry analysts Paul Zimnisky and Pranay Narvekar, along with industry veterans in India, weigh in on the current state of the diamond market and its prospects for 2025. (Photo courtesy of Venus Jewel)
It’s been a turbulent five years for the diamond industry from the post-COVID boom of 2021, through the mini-cycles of “slump-recover-slump” between mid-2022 and late 2024.

So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?

National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.

Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.

1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.

And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.

Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”

Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.

In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index

Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious. 

They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.  

While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.

“The industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.” — Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting

2. Supply Will Plateau, Demand Will Grow
There has been a steady decline in rough supply to the diamond market since the highs of 2022.

Both De Beers Group and Alrosa reported significant drops sales in 2024 and have estimated that 2025 sales may sink even lower. 

Zimnisky estimates that both companies are now maintaining higher rough inventory levels as compared with a year ago.

He projects that the total annual supply of rough to the industry will be in the range of 105 to 115 million carats.

Looking ahead, Narvekar projects the supply of natural rough will continue at the current levels for the next five to seven years, at least.

“Retail consumption has remained virtually stagnant for the last 15 years or so, barring the post-COVID spike,” he said, adding, “the industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.”

3. Rough Distribution Changes, Midstream Consolidation
Consolidation and greater coordination—these are the buzzwords for the diamond supply chain going forward.

There is a growing understanding that maintaining stability across the pipeline has to be a shared responsibility.

Meanwhile, rough distribution systems will be modified as the Okavango Diamond Company, the rough diamond sales and marketing company owned by the Botswana government, gears up to sell the additional rough that will start accruing to it, per the country’s new 10-year sales agreement with De Beers, and Angola seeks to step up its sales. 

It remains to be seen what shape beneficiation will take as the industry needs to strike a balance between socio-political goals and cost-effective operations.

Dubai has emerged as a strong player in distribution, but this could change following recent modifications to taxation in India designed to simplify compliance and encourage diamond miners to do business with Indian companies. 

Miners may consider direct sales to manufacturers from within the Special Notified Zones, set up by the Indian government in Mumbai and Surat, more attractive. 

Consolidation also has occurred in the midstream. A sizable portion of the polishing capacity in Surat has shifted to lab-grown diamonds, and the process will continue. 

The share of larger players may rise, with small and mid-sized manufacturers remaining mostly in niche areas. 

“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation.”— Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst

4. Differentiation Needed in Lab Grown
Lab-grown diamonds are here to stay. How will they impact the emerging landscape?

A November 2024 article by McKinsey & Company titled, “The Diamond Industry Is at an Inflection Point,” outlines possible scenarios for the market.

“First, lab-grown diamonds could take over the majority of the market outside niche luxury segments,” the article states. 

“Second, the price of lab-grown diamonds could drop so low they effectively become fashion accessories that no longer compete with diamonds … (and) assuming consumers cannot tell the difference between natural stones and lab-grown diamonds, all diamonds could simply go out of fashion.”

Zimnisky stressed that clear differentiation is needed. 

“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation for the larger category, which has negative consequences for the whole supply chain.” 

Narvekar reiterated the warning he issued in 2022—lab grown is not a diamond business. 

“It has to be marketed as a distinct product, not as a substitute for a natural or else both may be dragged down,” he said. 

Zimnisky said there is room for both. 

According to his calculations and estimates, “approximately 40 percent of current man-made diamond sales are incremental to the larger diamond industry, and forecasted to amount to some $7 billion in 2024, i.e., these are diamond sales that would not exist if lab-grown diamonds did not exist.”

“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive.”— Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting

5. Bigger Budgets, Better Marketing?
Who will shoulder the burden of promoting diamonds to the public? 

The emerging consensus is that the entire pipeline should become collective custodians of protecting the “diamond dream.”

On one side, De Beers, alongside its efforts under the Natural Diamond Council, initiated marketing and promotion collaborations with major retailers across key markets—the United States (Signet Jewelers), India (Tanishq), and China (Chow Tai Fook)—in 2024.

In India, this went a step further, with the miner collaborating with the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council to launch the India Natural Diamond Retailer Alliance (Indra), a platform to involve small and mid-sized retailers in the effort.

On the other, a proposal floated at the Dubai Diamond Conference last year by midstream organizations including the Antwerp World Diamond Centre, the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre to expand the budget for marketing diamonds with contributions of a fixed minimal percentage on every sale of rough has been broadly welcomed. 

The idea, if it gets formalized, will ensure that there will be a more consistent stream of money spent on marketing diamonds over a prolonged period of time.

Narvekar is clear that without such an increase in marketing and promotion, the future remains dim. He pointed out that the total amount the entire diamond industry spends on marketing is less than what one single company, Apple, allots to this vital facet of business. 

“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive,” he concluded.

The Latest

Stock image of shipping containers
Policies & IssuesMay 29, 2025
Trade Court Declares Trump’s Tariffs Invalid

Three federal judges ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing sweeping tariffs, a ruling his administration already has appealed.

Britney Spears
CollectionsMay 29, 2025
Britney Spears Files Trademark for New Jewelry Line

The pop icon is one step closer to launching her “B Tiny” jewelry collection, a collection she first began posting about last fall.

Inoveo Platinum Grain image.jpg
Supplier BulletinMay 29, 2025
Inoveo Platinum Grain, Exclusively Distributed by Stuller

Sponsored by Stuller

Article Image 1.png
Brought to you by
Clienteling Isn’t a Buzzword. It’s an Essential Business Model.

More shoppers are walking out without buying. Here’s how smart jewelers can bring them back—and the tool they need to do it right.

GemFind Logo
TechnologyMay 29, 2025
GemFind Launches AI Product Description Software

GemText AI uses artificial intelligence to generate tailored product titles, descriptions, and tags with jewelry-specific language.

Weekly QuizMay 22, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Graff Fontainebleau Las Vegas
MajorsMay 28, 2025
Graff Unveils New Las Vegas Flagship

The 3,300-square foot location is the jeweler's largest store in North America.

Kim Kardashian
CrimeMay 28, 2025
8 Convicted in Kim Kardashian Jewelry Heist Trial

Aging and with myriad health issues, none will serve time for their roles in robbing the billionaire celebrity at gunpoint in 2016.

antique_Vegas_2024_by_headshot_stories_9454.jpg
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the Globe

Gain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.

New York Liberty 2024 WNBA Championship Ring
CollectionsMay 28, 2025
NY Liberty’s 2024 Championship Rings Honor Historic Win

The WNBA team received rings imbued with meaning, from leaf motifs and its Liberty torch to the number of diamonds used.

Jewelers Board of Trade logo
MajorsMay 28, 2025
Andrew Rickard Named JBT President

A longtime executive at RDI Diamonds, Rickard has served on the JBT board for the past five years.

Logos for Manufacturing Jewelers & Suppliers of America and Jewelers of America
MajorsMay 27, 2025
MJSA to Become Part of Jewelers of America

The two organizations have signed an affiliation agreement that’s expected to be finalized in the coming weeks.

Al Capone Pocket Watch
AuctionsMay 27, 2025
Al Capone’s Patek Philippe Pocket Watch Back Up for Auction

The platinum and diamond watch is part of Sotheby’s upcoming Important Watches sale.

Kat Florence Lumina
AuctionsMay 27, 2025
182-Carat Paraíba-Type Tourmaline Sells for $487K

Recovered in Mozambique, “The Kat Florence Lumina” was part of Bonhams’ Hong Kong jewelry auction held last week.

Mark Henry Gumdrop Bypass Ring
TrendsMay 27, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Candy-Colored Gemstones

Get a taste of the delicious candy-like gemstones in this Amanda’s Style File.

Stock image of police cars with their lights on
CrimeMay 23, 2025
JSA Shares Holiday Weekend Security Tips Amid Spike in Burglaries

JSA’s Scott Guginsky provided a list of nine security measures jewelers should observe while locking up for the long weekend.

Bliss Lau Bright Ring
CollectionsMay 23, 2025
Piece of the Week: Bliss Lau’s ‘Bright’ Ring

From Lau’s “Love of a Kind” series, the engagement ring was inspired by the moon and holds a different meaning depending on how it is worn.

GIA pearl report
GradingMay 23, 2025
GIA Updates Pearl Classification System

The lab has adjusted the scale it uses for nacre grading.

GCALbySarine Diamond Journey Certificate_1872x1052.jpg
Supplier BulletinMay 22, 2025
How to Put Natural Diamonds Back in the Spotlight

Sponsored by GCAL by Sarine

The late West Virginia jeweler David Ettinger
CrimeMay 22, 2025
NY Jeweler Sentenced in Shoving Death of Colleague at IJO Show

David Walton will serve three years’ probation after an incident in a hotel bar led to the death of West Virginia jeweler David Ettinger.

Watches of Switzerland store in Mall of America
FinancialsMay 22, 2025
Watches of Switzerland’s Full-Year U.S. Sales Climb 14%

The retailer also provided an update on how the tariffs situation in the U.S. is affecting its business.

Jorge Adeler, Wendy Adeler, Valentina Adeler
IndependentsMay 22, 2025
Adeler Jewelers Celebrates 50 Years

The family-owned jeweler in Great Falls, Virginia, will be celebrating its golden jubilee with a year’s worth of events.

Jose Hess Design Awards 2025 Trophy
Events & AwardsMay 22, 2025
Jose Hess Design Awards Announce Judges

The nonprofit elected five judges who will decide the winners of its design competition.

MJSA 2025-2026 Buyer’s Guide
MajorsMay 22, 2025
MJSA Releases 2025-2026 Buyer’s Guide

This year’s edition includes articles on the favorite tools of notable designers, evaluating when to outsource production, and more.

Bulgari Invisible Violet Necklace and Rainbow Flow Necklace
CollectionsMay 21, 2025
Bulgari Highlights Its Colorful Past in Phenomenal ‘Polychroma’ Collection

The jeweler’s high jewelry collection features extraordinary gemstones, like a 241.06-carat emerald and the world’s fourth-largest spinel.

Industry analyst Edahn Golan
ColumnistsMay 21, 2025
Edahn’s Take: Analyzing the 2025 ‘$100 Million Supersellers’ List

In a special column for the State of the Majors, Edahn Golan breaks down what the top-performing fine jewelry sellers are doing right.

Beyoncé bolo tie necklace
MajorsMay 21, 2025
Beyoncé Dons Brilliant Earth Necklace During Cowboy Carter Tour

The bolo tie necklace is inspired by “Queen Bey” and set with a nearly 15-carat black diamond.

Annie Doresca
MajorsMay 20, 2025
Annie Doresca to Lead DCA as New CEO, President

Current Diamond Council of America President and CEO Terry Chandler is set to retire in January 2026.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy