FinancialsMar 20, 2026
Macy’s Turnaround Plans Shows Promise, Boosted by Bloomingdale’sPlus, why Saks Global’s bankruptcy may have given Bloomingdale’s an edge.
SourcingMar 12, 2025
5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025
The industry is changing as it grapples with new realities around distribution, supply, and the need for consistent, effective marketing.
Diamond industry analysts Paul Zimnisky and Pranay Narvekar, along with industry veterans in India, weigh in on the current state of the diamond market and its prospects for 2025. (Photo courtesy of Venus Jewel)
It’s been a turbulent five years for the diamond industry from the post-COVID boom of 2021, through the mini-cycles of “slump-recover-slump” between mid-2022 and late 2024.
So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?
National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.
Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.
1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.
And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.
Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”
Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.
In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index
Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious.
They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.
While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.
So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?
National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.
Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.
1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.
And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.
Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”
Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.
In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index
Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious.
They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.
While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.
“The industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.” — Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting
2. Supply Will Plateau, Demand Will Grow
There has been a steady decline in rough supply to the diamond market since the highs of 2022.
Both De Beers Group and Alrosa reported significant drops sales in 2024 and have estimated that 2025 sales may sink even lower.
Zimnisky estimates that both companies are now maintaining higher rough inventory levels as compared with a year ago.
He projects that the total annual supply of rough to the industry will be in the range of 105 to 115 million carats.
Looking ahead, Narvekar projects the supply of natural rough will continue at the current levels for the next five to seven years, at least.
“Retail consumption has remained virtually stagnant for the last 15 years or so, barring the post-COVID spike,” he said, adding, “the industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.”
3. Rough Distribution Changes, Midstream Consolidation
Consolidation and greater coordination—these are the buzzwords for the diamond supply chain going forward.
There is a growing understanding that maintaining stability across the pipeline has to be a shared responsibility.
Meanwhile, rough distribution systems will be modified as the Okavango Diamond Company, the rough diamond sales and marketing company owned by the Botswana government, gears up to sell the additional rough that will start accruing to it, per the country’s new 10-year sales agreement with De Beers, and Angola seeks to step up its sales.
It remains to be seen what shape beneficiation will take as the industry needs to strike a balance between socio-political goals and cost-effective operations.
Dubai has emerged as a strong player in distribution, but this could change following recent modifications to taxation in India designed to simplify compliance and encourage diamond miners to do business with Indian companies.
Miners may consider direct sales to manufacturers from within the Special Notified Zones, set up by the Indian government in Mumbai and Surat, more attractive.
Consolidation also has occurred in the midstream. A sizable portion of the polishing capacity in Surat has shifted to lab-grown diamonds, and the process will continue.
The share of larger players may rise, with small and mid-sized manufacturers remaining mostly in niche areas.
“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation.”— Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst
4. Differentiation Needed in Lab Grown
Lab-grown diamonds are here to stay. How will they impact the emerging landscape?
A November 2024 article by McKinsey & Company titled, “The Diamond Industry Is at an Inflection Point,” outlines possible scenarios for the market.
“First, lab-grown diamonds could take over the majority of the market outside niche luxury segments,” the article states.
“Second, the price of lab-grown diamonds could drop so low they effectively become fashion accessories that no longer compete with diamonds … (and) assuming consumers cannot tell the difference between natural stones and lab-grown diamonds, all diamonds could simply go out of fashion.”
Zimnisky stressed that clear differentiation is needed.
“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation for the larger category, which has negative consequences for the whole supply chain.”
Narvekar reiterated the warning he issued in 2022—lab grown is not a diamond business.
“It has to be marketed as a distinct product, not as a substitute for a natural or else both may be dragged down,” he said.
Zimnisky said there is room for both.
According to his calculations and estimates, “approximately 40 percent of current man-made diamond sales are incremental to the larger diamond industry, and forecasted to amount to some $7 billion in 2024, i.e., these are diamond sales that would not exist if lab-grown diamonds did not exist.”
“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive.”— Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting
5. Bigger Budgets, Better Marketing?
Who will shoulder the burden of promoting diamonds to the public?
The emerging consensus is that the entire pipeline should become collective custodians of protecting the “diamond dream.”
On one side, De Beers, alongside its efforts under the Natural Diamond Council, initiated marketing and promotion collaborations with major retailers across key markets—the United States (Signet Jewelers), India (Tanishq), and China (Chow Tai Fook)—in 2024.
In India, this went a step further, with the miner collaborating with the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council to launch the India Natural Diamond Retailer Alliance (Indra), a platform to involve small and mid-sized retailers in the effort.
On the other, a proposal floated at the Dubai Diamond Conference last year by midstream organizations including the Antwerp World Diamond Centre, the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre to expand the budget for marketing diamonds with contributions of a fixed minimal percentage on every sale of rough has been broadly welcomed.
The idea, if it gets formalized, will ensure that there will be a more consistent stream of money spent on marketing diamonds over a prolonged period of time.
Narvekar is clear that without such an increase in marketing and promotion, the future remains dim. He pointed out that the total amount the entire diamond industry spends on marketing is less than what one single company, Apple, allots to this vital facet of business.
“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive,” he concluded.
More on Sourcing
The Latest
AuctionsMar 20, 2026
Sotheby's, De Beers Unveil ‘Jwaneng 28.88’ DiamondThe flawless, Type IIa stone is estimated to achieve up to $2.8 million at the auction house’s high jewelry sale in April.
TrendsMar 20, 2026
‘Frankenstein’ Costume Designer Is Bejeweled In Brooches for Oscars WinCostume designer Kate Hawley wore three archival Tiffany & Co. brooches, our Pieces of the Week, while accepting her first Oscar.
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
FinancialsMar 19, 2026
Signet Jewelers to Close 100 Stores, Shutter James Allen BannerThe jewelry retailer announced changes to its store network and brand portfolio during its fourth-quarter earnings call.
Weekly QuizMar 19, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SurveysMar 19, 2026
NRF Forecasts 4% Retail Sales Growth in 2026From a weaker labor market to inflation, NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews gave insight on what retailers can expect this year.
AuctionsMar 19, 2026
26-Carat Diamond Tops $1M at AuctionThe historic stone, which sold at Elmwood’s in London, is the largest white diamond to be offered on the U.K. market in more than a decade.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
Events & AwardsMar 19, 2026
JCK Rocks To Ride With NellyThree-time Grammy award-winning artist Nelly is set to perform at the annual event at Tao Beach in Las Vegas on May 31.
AuctionsMar 18, 2026
Collection of the ‘Severely Beautiful’ Lady Wardington Fetches $161KThe model and fashion editor’s gold evening bags were the top lots at the London sale, going for more than $25,000 each.
PodcastsMar 18, 2026
Episode 3: An Interview With Jewelry Designer Johnny NelsonFresh off winning the David Yurman Gem Awards Grant, Nelson discusses the ring that launched his career and his plans for the future.
MajorsMar 18, 2026
Stuller Releases New Edition of Jewelry Education Book“The Basics of Jewelry” has been updated to include modern topics and visuals.
Events & AwardsMar 17, 2026
The Best Moments From the 2026 Gem Awards Held just before the Oscars, the jewelry industry’s big awards show had its share of standout jewelry, gowns, and acceptance speeches.
TrendsMar 17, 2026
Natalie Portman Is Tiffany & Co.’s New AmbassadorThe Academy Award-winning actress stars in Tiffany & Co.’s latest commercial, which debuted Sunday night during the Oscars.
MajorsMar 17, 2026
Kering Establishes Jewelry Division, Appoints CEOThe organizational change follows Kering’s promise of a transformation after declining sales in 2025.
EditorsMar 16, 2026
2026 Oscars Jewelry: One Necklace After AnotherNatalie Francisco rounds up the top Oscars jewels, including Rose Byrne’s Taffin necklace with a more than 20-carat yellow-brown diamond.
WatchesMar 16, 2026
TAG Heuer Has a New CEOBéatrice Goasglas has been with TAG Heuer since 2018. She is the first woman to head the 166-year-old, LVMH-owned watch brand.
IndependentsMar 16, 2026
Ben Bridge Debuts New Honolulu BoutiqueThe store features the first in-store build for the jeweler’s in-house “Bella Ponte” bridal brand.
AuctionsMar 16, 2026
Bonhams Paris To Offer Antique, Signed Jewels The live fine jewelry auction will take place later this week, showcasing antique pieces, rare gemstones, and signed jewels.
CollectionsMar 13, 2026
A Trio of Jewels from the 3 Gem Award Nominees for Jewelry DesignOur Pieces of the Week honor the 2026 nominees for the Gem Award for Jewelry Design, Silvia Furmanovich, Cece Fein-Hughes, and Catherine Sarr.
WatchesMar 13, 2026
Citizen, Vera Wang to Launch Watch CollectionThe 24-piece watch collection is set to debut in spring 2027.
SourcingMar 13, 2026
Andrea Pooler Joins Third-Generation Diamond Company as COO Pooler, who has more than 25 years’ experience in jewelry, is now chief operating officer of Modani Jewels, Soham Diamonds, and SNJ Creations.
MajorsMar 13, 2026
24 Karat Club of New York’s Banquet to Return to Waldorf AstoriaThe reopening of the Waldorf Astoria means a homecoming for the industry group’s annual event, which will take place Saturday.
CollectionsMar 12, 2026
Jessica McCormack Sends Gold, Gemstones Into ‘Orbit’McCormack looked to the 19th century’s “golden age” of astronomy when designing her new celestial-themed collection.
Events & AwardsMar 12, 2026
Johnny Nelson Wins David Yurman Gem Awards GrantNelson will be honored as the inaugural grant winner at the Gem Awards gala on Friday.
TechnologyMar 12, 2026
Caratwise Launches, Names Former Signet Exec CEO The new smart design software allows jewelers to configure, price, and confirm a custom engagement ring in real time for in-store customers.
SourcingMar 12, 2026
Grandview Klein Opens New Factory in South Africa The 10,000-square-foot diamond manufacturing facility officially opened in late February and employs 50 people.
