Sourcing

5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025

SourcingMar 12, 2025

5 Factors That Will Impact the Diamond Industry in 2025

The industry is changing as it grapples with new realities around distribution, supply, and the need for consistent, effective marketing.

A rough diamond and a polished diamond
Diamond industry analysts Paul Zimnisky and Pranay Narvekar, along with industry veterans in India, weigh in on the current state of the diamond market and its prospects for 2025. (Photo courtesy of Venus Jewel)
It’s been a turbulent five years for the diamond industry from the post-COVID boom of 2021, through the mini-cycles of “slump-recover-slump” between mid-2022 and late 2024.

So, in early 2025, there is one question everyone is asking. Where do we go from here?

National Jeweler discussed the challenges confronting the diamond industry with analysts Pranay Narvekar of Pharos Beam Consulting LLP and Paul Zimnisky, explored different perspectives presented earlier on the issue, and interviewed a few senior members of the trade in India.

Using this information, National Jeweler compiled a list of five factors that will define the diamond industry as it emerges from what could be the stormiest period it has weathered in a long, long time.

1. Greater Stability
Let’s start with the good news. The general opinion across the industry seems to be that the alarm bells may soon stop ringing.

And though midstream inventories are not yet at what can be considered “normal” levels, a degree of stability should return in the near term, perhaps as early as the second quarter of 2025.

Narvekar said, “There has been some improvement in polished sales in the U.S., and a reduction in levels of rough entering the pipeline, so midstream inventory levels have steadily been reducing.”

Zimnisky said it is a positive that the seriousness of the situation is being acknowledged and discussed.

In his February “State of the Diamond Market” report notes that, “the industry has … been proactive in curbing supply and midstream inventory levels are approaching more sustainable levels going into 2025.”
https://www.paulzimnisky.com/state-of-the-diamond-market-past-issue-index

Nevertheless, diamantaires in India are still cautious. 

They say that stability has been achieved due to better correlation between supply and demand.  

While there will not be a return to the volatility of 2023-2024, significant growth is not immediately visible on the horizon.

“The industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.” — Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting

2. Supply Will Plateau, Demand Will Grow
There has been a steady decline in rough supply to the diamond market since the highs of 2022.

Both De Beers Group and Alrosa reported significant drops sales in 2024 and have estimated that 2025 sales may sink even lower. 

Zimnisky estimates that both companies are now maintaining higher rough inventory levels as compared with a year ago.

He projects that the total annual supply of rough to the industry will be in the range of 105 to 115 million carats.

Looking ahead, Narvekar projects the supply of natural rough will continue at the current levels for the next five to seven years, at least.

“Retail consumption has remained virtually stagnant for the last 15 years or so, barring the post-COVID spike,” he said, adding, “the industry will have to get used to lower volumes and values for the foreseeable future.”

3. Rough Distribution Changes, Midstream Consolidation
Consolidation and greater coordination—these are the buzzwords for the diamond supply chain going forward.

There is a growing understanding that maintaining stability across the pipeline has to be a shared responsibility.

Meanwhile, rough distribution systems will be modified as the Okavango Diamond Company, the rough diamond sales and marketing company owned by the Botswana government, gears up to sell the additional rough that will start accruing to it, per the country’s new 10-year sales agreement with De Beers, and Angola seeks to step up its sales. 

It remains to be seen what shape beneficiation will take as the industry needs to strike a balance between socio-political goals and cost-effective operations.

Dubai has emerged as a strong player in distribution, but this could change following recent modifications to taxation in India designed to simplify compliance and encourage diamond miners to do business with Indian companies. 

Miners may consider direct sales to manufacturers from within the Special Notified Zones, set up by the Indian government in Mumbai and Surat, more attractive. 

Consolidation also has occurred in the midstream. A sizable portion of the polishing capacity in Surat has shifted to lab-grown diamonds, and the process will continue. 

The share of larger players may rise, with small and mid-sized manufacturers remaining mostly in niche areas. 

“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation.”— Paul Zimnisky, industry analyst

4. Differentiation Needed in Lab Grown
Lab-grown diamonds are here to stay. How will they impact the emerging landscape?

A November 2024 article by McKinsey & Company titled, “The Diamond Industry Is at an Inflection Point,” outlines possible scenarios for the market.

“First, lab-grown diamonds could take over the majority of the market outside niche luxury segments,” the article states. 

“Second, the price of lab-grown diamonds could drop so low they effectively become fashion accessories that no longer compete with diamonds … (and) assuming consumers cannot tell the difference between natural stones and lab-grown diamonds, all diamonds could simply go out of fashion.”

Zimnisky stressed that clear differentiation is needed. 

“Natural and lab-grown diamonds products cannot be sold side-by-side or interchangeably, as this will just continue to lead to overall price deflation for the larger category, which has negative consequences for the whole supply chain.” 

Narvekar reiterated the warning he issued in 2022—lab grown is not a diamond business. 

“It has to be marketed as a distinct product, not as a substitute for a natural or else both may be dragged down,” he said. 

Zimnisky said there is room for both. 

According to his calculations and estimates, “approximately 40 percent of current man-made diamond sales are incremental to the larger diamond industry, and forecasted to amount to some $7 billion in 2024, i.e., these are diamond sales that would not exist if lab-grown diamonds did not exist.”

“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive.”— Pranay Narvekar, Pharos Beam Consulting

5. Bigger Budgets, Better Marketing?
Who will shoulder the burden of promoting diamonds to the public? 

The emerging consensus is that the entire pipeline should become collective custodians of protecting the “diamond dream.”

On one side, De Beers, alongside its efforts under the Natural Diamond Council, initiated marketing and promotion collaborations with major retailers across key markets—the United States (Signet Jewelers), India (Tanishq), and China (Chow Tai Fook)—in 2024.

In India, this went a step further, with the miner collaborating with the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council to launch the India Natural Diamond Retailer Alliance (Indra), a platform to involve small and mid-sized retailers in the effort.

On the other, a proposal floated at the Dubai Diamond Conference last year by midstream organizations including the Antwerp World Diamond Centre, the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre to expand the budget for marketing diamonds with contributions of a fixed minimal percentage on every sale of rough has been broadly welcomed. 

The idea, if it gets formalized, will ensure that there will be a more consistent stream of money spent on marketing diamonds over a prolonged period of time.

Narvekar is clear that without such an increase in marketing and promotion, the future remains dim. He pointed out that the total amount the entire diamond industry spends on marketing is less than what one single company, Apple, allots to this vital facet of business. 

“The overall size of the market has to grow. We need marketing to keep the ‘diamond dream’ alive,” he concluded.

The Latest

Stock image of a man’s hands in handcuffs
CrimeMay 08, 2025
Former NYC Jewelry Store Employee Arrested in 2017 Choking Death of Boss

Michel Desalles allegedly murdered Omid Gholian inside World of Gold N Diamond using zip ties and then fled the country.

2025 Met Gala jewelry
EditorsMay 08, 2025
5 ‘Superfine’ Met Gala Jewelry Moments

Associate Editor Lauren McLemore shares her favorite looks from a night of style inspired by Black dandyism.

instappraise-1.png
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2025
Instappraise Introduces Game-Changing Trifold Appraisal Format

Sponsored by Instappraise

antique_Vegas_2024_by_headshot_stories_9454.jpg
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the Globe

Gain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.

Brilliant Earth three stone Sabine diamond engagement ring
FinancialsMay 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth Notes an Uptick in Engagement Ring Sales in Q1

CEO Beth Gerstein discussed the company’s bridal bestsellers, the potential impact of tariffs, and the rising price of gold.

Weekly QuizMay 08, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Exterior of Margot McKinney Beverly Hills Location
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Margot McKinney Lands in the U.S. With New Boutique

The brand’s first independent location outside of Australia has opened in Beverly Hills, California.

Cathy Marsh
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Verragio Announces New Regional Sales Manager

Cathy Marsh will lead the jewelry company’s efforts in the upper Midwest and western United States.

Supplier Spotlight -Recorded-Webinar.png
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest Addition

Supplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA

Pandora gold and silver charm bracelet
FinancialsMay 07, 2025
Pandora Posts Strong Q1, Plans for Tariffs

The company has multiple strategies for dealing with tariffs, though its CEO said moving manufacturing to the U.S. is not one of them.

Headshot of Smart Age Solutions CEO Emmanuel Raheb
ColumnistsMay 07, 2025
The Smart Lab: Building a Seasonal Marketing Strategy for Mother’s Day and Beyond

Connecting with your customers throughout the year is key to a successful holiday marketing push.

Logo for “In the Loupe,” Punchmark’s podcast
TechnologyMay 07, 2025
Punchmark’s Latest Podcast Features a Very Special Guest

National Jeweler Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff joined Michael Burpoe to talk tariffs, consumer confidence, and the sky-high price of gold.

Harwell Godfrey Met Gala brooch with Mediterranean Blue diamond
AuctionsMay 06, 2025
Harwell Godfrey Reimagines 10-Carat Blue Diamond for Met Gala-Ready Brooch

Designer Lauren Harwell Godfrey made the piece as an homage to the 2025 gala’s theme, “Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.”

Jewelers of America 20 Under 40 for 2025
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2025
Here’s Who Made Jewelers of America’s New ‘20 Under 40’ List

Expanded this year to include suppliers, JA’s 2025 list honors 40 up-and-coming professionals in the jewelry industry.

Sissys Log Cabin Fort Smith Arkansas
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens New Store

Located in Fort Smith, it’s the Mid-South jeweler’s first store in Northwest Arkansas.

Gunderson’s Jewelers
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Gunderson’s Jewelers to Be Featured on ‘World’s Greatest’ TV Series

The episode about the family-owned jeweler will premiere May 17.

Zadok Jewelers Austin store
IndependentsMay 05, 2025
Zadok Jewelers Opens Store in Austin

The Houston-based jeweler’s new 11,000-square-foot showroom will include a Rolex boutique.

Nancy Astor Cartier turquoise and diamond tiara
AuctionsMay 05, 2025
Nancy Astor’s Cartier Tiara Heads to Auction

The turquoise and diamond tiara hasn’t been on the market since it was purchased by Lord Astor in 1930.

Kraft Mac & Cheese x Ring Concierge Forever Macaroni Necklace
TrendsMay 02, 2025
Ring Concierge, Kraft Partner on Mother’s Day Macaroni Necklace

The childhood craft of making dried pasta necklaces for Mother’s Day is all grown up as the 14-karat gold “Forever Macaroni” necklace.

Angely Martinez emerald Promise ring
CollectionsMay 02, 2025
Piece of the Week: Angely Martinez’s Emerald Promise Ring

Set with May’s birthstone and featuring an earthworm, this ring is a perfect celebration of spring.

Stuller 2025-2026 bridal catalog
MajorsMay 02, 2025
Stuller’s New Bridal Catalog Is Here

“Bridal 2025–2026” includes popular styles and a dedicated section for quick pricing references of lab-grown diamond bridal jewelry.

Americut Gems
SourcingMay 01, 2025
Tariffs & Colored Gemstones: Relying on Stock, Considering the Ripple Effect

Though currently paused, high tariffs threaten many countries where gemstones are mined. Dealers are taking measures now to prepare.

Exterior of new David Yurman store in the Miami Design District
MajorsMay 01, 2025
Peek Inside David Yurman’s New Miami Flagship Store

Located in Miami’s Design District, the 4,000-square-foot store is an homage to David and Sybil Yurman’s artistic roots.

Oscar Heyman emerald and diamond necklace
TrendsMay 01, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: 20 Pieces of Emerald Jewelry for May

May babies are lucky indeed, born in a month awash with fresh colors and celebrated with one of the most coveted colored gemstones.

Jewelers of America logo
MajorsMay 01, 2025
Jewelers of America Opens Applications for 2025 Scholarships

The deadline to apply for the Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship is June 12.

Stock image of an empty clothing store
SurveysApr 30, 2025
Consumer Confidence Hits Pandemic-Level Low Amid Tariff Concerns

What’s really worrying U.S. consumers isn’t the present situation; it’s what the economy is going to look like six months from now.

2025 Instore Jewelry Show Graphic
Events & AwardsApr 30, 2025
Instore Show Debuts New Name, Look, and Focus

Now called The Instore Jewelry Show, it will include holiday-focused education, interactive workshops, and a window display contest.

GemWorld GemGuide logo
SourcingApr 30, 2025
GemGuide Has a New Pricing Chart for Colombian Emeralds

It includes pricing for unenhanced Colombian emeralds in the fine to extra fine range.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy