SurveysMay 19, 2022
5 Predictions for Jewelry Retail in the Second Half of 2022SurveysJul 06, 2022
A Recession Is Unlikely, Says NRF Economist
The economy is moving from “extremely strong” to “moderate” growth, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz shared his thoughts on a possible recession in the organization’s most recent monthly economic review.
New York— The U.S. economy is unlikely to sink into a recession this year, according to National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
The organization’s head economist gave an overview of the current economic situation, as well as his predictions for the next few years ahead, in the NRF’s latest Monthly Economic Review.
The United States is facing its highest inflation rates in 40 years, he noted, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark federal funds interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the largest increase since 1994.
To fight inflation, Kleinhenz explained, the Fed has to slow demand, and to do that, it has to be more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money.
“The Fed increases will mean higher interest rates and higher monthly payments on home mortgages, car loans and credit card bills for consumers while businesses will see higher costs for corporate borrowing and the government will pay more on the $23.9 trillion in debt held by the public,” he wrote.
The Fed’s latest forecast pegs the benchmark federal funds rate at 3.4 percent by the end of 2022 and 3.8 percent by the end of 2023.
Raising the interest rate, he said, weighs down stock and bond returns and impacts consumer confidence.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said households expect inflation to rise 7 percent over the next year, but only 4 percent over the next three years.
To add to the situation, the war in Ukraine has not only led to geopolitical strife but also driven up energy prices and exacerbated supply chain issues.
Yet, despite these myriad economic and political issues, economic data is still signaling solid growth ahead, Kleinhenz said.
Consumer spending has remained resilient in the face of inflation.
The NRF calculates retail spending, narrowing in on core retail by excluding automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
Its data shows retail spending in May was unchanged month-over-month and up nearly 7 percent year-over-year.
For the first five months of 2022, retail sales were up more than 7 percent compared with the same period in 2021.
Related stories will be right here …
The organization’s head economist gave an overview of the current economic situation, as well as his predictions for the next few years ahead, in the NRF’s latest Monthly Economic Review.
The United States is facing its highest inflation rates in 40 years, he noted, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark federal funds interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the largest increase since 1994.
To fight inflation, Kleinhenz explained, the Fed has to slow demand, and to do that, it has to be more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money.
“The Fed increases will mean higher interest rates and higher monthly payments on home mortgages, car loans and credit card bills for consumers while businesses will see higher costs for corporate borrowing and the government will pay more on the $23.9 trillion in debt held by the public,” he wrote.
The Fed’s latest forecast pegs the benchmark federal funds rate at 3.4 percent by the end of 2022 and 3.8 percent by the end of 2023.
Raising the interest rate, he said, weighs down stock and bond returns and impacts consumer confidence.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said households expect inflation to rise 7 percent over the next year, but only 4 percent over the next three years.
To add to the situation, the war in Ukraine has not only led to geopolitical strife but also driven up energy prices and exacerbated supply chain issues.
Yet, despite these myriad economic and political issues, economic data is still signaling solid growth ahead, Kleinhenz said.
Consumer spending has remained resilient in the face of inflation.
The NRF calculates retail spending, narrowing in on core retail by excluding automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
Its data shows retail spending in May was unchanged month-over-month and up nearly 7 percent year-over-year.
For the first five months of 2022, retail sales were up more than 7 percent compared with the same period in 2021.
As COVID-19 restrictions ease, households are expected to adjust their spending and shopping habits, said Kleinhenz.
Overall household spending, other than retail sales, is expected to climb 9 percent to a new high next year.
Spending on services and travel is also expected to rise.
Restaurant sales, which Kleinhenz said act as a proxy for broader services, posted month-over-month growth of nearly 1 percent and year-over-year growth of 18 percent in May.
The Transportation Security Administration is shuffling an increased number of travelers through security, with passenger volume close to pre-pandemic levels.
More than 40.3 million travelers passed through airport checkpoints between June 1 and June 17, only 13 percent below the same period in 2019.
Manufacturing activity also rose in May, Kleinhenz noted.
Supplier deliveries improved alongside “decent” demand and orders, while order backlogs grew at a faster pace, according to the monthly report on business from the Institute for Supply Management.
The job market also remained steady.
“None of us can say with any assurance what the future holds, but policy actions will likely be the deciding factor shaping the economic outlook this year and next.”—NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz
“Job openings and quit rates through the end of April suggest the job market remains tight, payroll growth remains sturdy even though it slowed in May, and the unemployment rate has been steady at 3.6 percent for three months in a row,” said Kleinhenz.
The current period of economic expansion is more than two years old, he said, meaning it has lasted longer than the two-month recession that ended in April 2020.
“I am not betting on an official recession in the near term, but the most recent research pegs the risk over the next year at about one in three and it will be touch and go in 2023,”said Kleinhenz.
While he does not believe a recession necessarily is coming, a contracting economy is still possible.
The consumer outlook over the next few months is favorable, he said, as most U.S. households continue to have high levels of purchasing power.
“The economy is moving away from extremely strong growth toward moderate growth, but increased income from employment gains, rising wages and more hours worked is expected to support household spending,” he said.
A recent report from Fruchtman Marketing forecasts 2022 jewelry sales will take a similar path of moderate growth compared with the period of strong growth last year.
“None of us can see around corners or say with any assurance what the future holds, but policy actions will likely be the deciding factor shaping the economic outlook this year and next,” Kleinhenz said.
To read the full economic review for July, visit the NRF website.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CrimeFeb 27, 2026
Man Charged in Murders of Father, Son Jewelers in ChicagoChicago police and members of the U.S. Marshals Service tracked down the 35-year-old suspect earlier this week in St. Louis.
SourcingFeb 27, 2026
South African Diamond Mine Closes Amid Search for Missing WorkersOwners of the Ekapa Mine reportedly filed for liquidation about a week after a mudslide trapped five workers who have yet to be found.
MajorsFeb 27, 2026
Jewelers Mutual to Donate $10M to Savannah College of Art and DesignA 10-year alliance has also begun to address the shortage of bench jewelers through scholarships, enhanced programs, and updated equipment.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
CollectionsFeb 27, 2026
Renato Cipullo Turns Gold into HardstonesThe “Splendente” collection has evolved to feature hardstone letter pendants, including our Piece of the Week, the onyx “R.”
Weekly QuizFeb 26, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsFeb 26, 2026
Noonans to Auction Lady Wardington’s JewelryThe jewelry collection belonged to “one of society's most glamorous and beautiful women of the mid-20th century,” said the auction house.
SourcingFeb 26, 2026
Anglo American CEO Gives Insight Into De Beers SaleThe update came as Anglo took its third write-down on the diamond miner and marketer, which lost more than $500 million in 2025.
Brought to you by
DCA Enters a New Chapter in Jewelry EducationWith refreshed branding, a new website, updated courses, and a pathway for growth, DCA is dedicated to supporting retail staff development.
ColumnistsFeb 26, 2026
Practical Ways Jewelers Can Leverage AI in 2026Emmanuel Raheb discusses the rise of “GEO” and the importance of having well-written, quality content on your website.
CrimeFeb 26, 2026
Three Sentenced in California Jewelry HeistEach received around four years for burglarizing a jewelry store and a coffee shop in Simi Valley, California, last May.
Events & AwardsFeb 26, 2026
GIA Names 2026 Jewelry Design Contest Winner, Retires Annual AwardCatherine Aulick, a GIA graduate, received the ninth and final Gianmaria Buccellati Foundation Award for Excellence in Jewelry Design.
TrendsFeb 25, 2026
Engagement Ring Trends 2026: What’s In, and WhyWe asked a jewelry historian, designer, bridal director, and wedding expert what’s trending in engagement rings. Here’s what they said.
SourcingFeb 25, 2026
7 Trends That Could Define the Diamond Industry’s FutureExperts from India weigh in the politics, policies, and market dynamics for diamantaires to monitor in 2026 and beyond.
EditorsFeb 25, 2026
Q&A: Brilliant Earth’s CEO on the New Beverly Hills StoreBeth Gerstein discusses the vibe of the new store, what customers want when fine jewelry shopping today, and the details of “Date Night.”
PodcastsFeb 25, 2026
Episode 2: Jewelry Trends & Does the Red Carpet Matter?Are arm bands poised to make a comeback? Has red-carpet jewelry become boring? Find out on the second episode of the “My Next Question” podcast.
WatchesFeb 25, 2026
Private Equity Firms Write Down Value of Breitling, Report SaysThe Swiss watchmaker is battling declining sales amid a rapid retail expansion, according to a Financial Times report.
CollectionsFeb 25, 2026
Rahaminov Diamonds’ New Campaign Honors Its MatriarchThe campaign celebrates Giustina Pavanello Rahaminov, the co-founder’s wife and matriarch of the family-owned brand, for her 88th birthday.
IndependentsFeb 25, 2026
Borsheims Names 2025 ‘Ike-It’ Award WinnerRachel Bennett, a senior jeweler who has been with Borsheims since 2004, earned the award.
Policies & IssuesFeb 24, 2026
IEEPA Tariffs Terminated, New 10% Tariff Already ImposedAfter the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, President Trump imposed a 10 percent tax on almost all imports via a different law.
IndependentsFeb 24, 2026
Sherry Smith Now Principal Partner at The Retail SmithsThe industry veteran, who was with The Edge Retail Academy for 14 years, joins her husband at the company he founded in 2022.
IndependentsFeb 24, 2026
Yafa Signed Jewels to Open Store in MiamiThe vintage signed jewelry retailer chose Miami due to growing client demand in the city and the greater Latin American region.
WatchesFeb 24, 2026
Chrono24 Names New VP, U.S. General ManagerFormer Flight Club executive Jin Lee will bring his experience from the sneaker world to the pre-owned watch marketplace.
SourcingFeb 23, 2026
Designer Eddie Sakamoto, a Humble Artist, Dies at 72Sakamoto, who died in mid-January following a sudden illness, is remembered for his humility and his masterful, architectural designs.
Events & AwardsFeb 23, 2026
NYCJAOS Announces Four-Day Spring ShowThe April event will feature a new VIP shopping day requiring a special ticket.
TrendsFeb 23, 2026
Dua Lipa Is Bulgari’s New AmbassadorBulgari chose the British-Albanian singer-songwriter for her powerful and enduring voice in contemporary culture, the jeweler said.
Policies & IssuesFeb 20, 2026
Supreme Court Rules Against Most of President Trump’s TariffsIn a 6-3 ruling, the court said the president exceeded his authority when imposing sweeping tariffs under IEEPA.
ColumnistsFeb 20, 2026
Peter Smith: Happiness, Cavemen, and Jewelry SalesSmith encourages salespeople to ask customers questions that elicit the release of oxytocin, the brain’s “feel-good” chemical.
