SurveysMay 19, 2022
5 Predictions for Jewelry Retail in the Second Half of 2022SurveysJul 06, 2022
A Recession Is Unlikely, Says NRF Economist
The economy is moving from “extremely strong” to “moderate” growth, said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz shared his thoughts on a possible recession in the organization’s most recent monthly economic review.
New York— The U.S. economy is unlikely to sink into a recession this year, according to National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
The organization’s head economist gave an overview of the current economic situation, as well as his predictions for the next few years ahead, in the NRF’s latest Monthly Economic Review.
The United States is facing its highest inflation rates in 40 years, he noted, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark federal funds interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the largest increase since 1994.
To fight inflation, Kleinhenz explained, the Fed has to slow demand, and to do that, it has to be more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money.
“The Fed increases will mean higher interest rates and higher monthly payments on home mortgages, car loans and credit card bills for consumers while businesses will see higher costs for corporate borrowing and the government will pay more on the $23.9 trillion in debt held by the public,” he wrote.
The Fed’s latest forecast pegs the benchmark federal funds rate at 3.4 percent by the end of 2022 and 3.8 percent by the end of 2023.
Raising the interest rate, he said, weighs down stock and bond returns and impacts consumer confidence.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said households expect inflation to rise 7 percent over the next year, but only 4 percent over the next three years.
To add to the situation, the war in Ukraine has not only led to geopolitical strife but also driven up energy prices and exacerbated supply chain issues.
Yet, despite these myriad economic and political issues, economic data is still signaling solid growth ahead, Kleinhenz said.
Consumer spending has remained resilient in the face of inflation.
The NRF calculates retail spending, narrowing in on core retail by excluding automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
Its data shows retail spending in May was unchanged month-over-month and up nearly 7 percent year-over-year.
For the first five months of 2022, retail sales were up more than 7 percent compared with the same period in 2021.
Related stories will be right here …
The organization’s head economist gave an overview of the current economic situation, as well as his predictions for the next few years ahead, in the NRF’s latest Monthly Economic Review.
The United States is facing its highest inflation rates in 40 years, he noted, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark federal funds interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the largest increase since 1994.
To fight inflation, Kleinhenz explained, the Fed has to slow demand, and to do that, it has to be more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money.
“The Fed increases will mean higher interest rates and higher monthly payments on home mortgages, car loans and credit card bills for consumers while businesses will see higher costs for corporate borrowing and the government will pay more on the $23.9 trillion in debt held by the public,” he wrote.
The Fed’s latest forecast pegs the benchmark federal funds rate at 3.4 percent by the end of 2022 and 3.8 percent by the end of 2023.
Raising the interest rate, he said, weighs down stock and bond returns and impacts consumer confidence.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations said households expect inflation to rise 7 percent over the next year, but only 4 percent over the next three years.
To add to the situation, the war in Ukraine has not only led to geopolitical strife but also driven up energy prices and exacerbated supply chain issues.
Yet, despite these myriad economic and political issues, economic data is still signaling solid growth ahead, Kleinhenz said.
Consumer spending has remained resilient in the face of inflation.
The NRF calculates retail spending, narrowing in on core retail by excluding automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
Its data shows retail spending in May was unchanged month-over-month and up nearly 7 percent year-over-year.
For the first five months of 2022, retail sales were up more than 7 percent compared with the same period in 2021.
As COVID-19 restrictions ease, households are expected to adjust their spending and shopping habits, said Kleinhenz.
Overall household spending, other than retail sales, is expected to climb 9 percent to a new high next year.
Spending on services and travel is also expected to rise.
Restaurant sales, which Kleinhenz said act as a proxy for broader services, posted month-over-month growth of nearly 1 percent and year-over-year growth of 18 percent in May.
The Transportation Security Administration is shuffling an increased number of travelers through security, with passenger volume close to pre-pandemic levels.
More than 40.3 million travelers passed through airport checkpoints between June 1 and June 17, only 13 percent below the same period in 2019.
Manufacturing activity also rose in May, Kleinhenz noted.
Supplier deliveries improved alongside “decent” demand and orders, while order backlogs grew at a faster pace, according to the monthly report on business from the Institute for Supply Management.
The job market also remained steady.
“None of us can say with any assurance what the future holds, but policy actions will likely be the deciding factor shaping the economic outlook this year and next.”—NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz
“Job openings and quit rates through the end of April suggest the job market remains tight, payroll growth remains sturdy even though it slowed in May, and the unemployment rate has been steady at 3.6 percent for three months in a row,” said Kleinhenz.
The current period of economic expansion is more than two years old, he said, meaning it has lasted longer than the two-month recession that ended in April 2020.
“I am not betting on an official recession in the near term, but the most recent research pegs the risk over the next year at about one in three and it will be touch and go in 2023,”said Kleinhenz.
While he does not believe a recession necessarily is coming, a contracting economy is still possible.
The consumer outlook over the next few months is favorable, he said, as most U.S. households continue to have high levels of purchasing power.
“The economy is moving away from extremely strong growth toward moderate growth, but increased income from employment gains, rising wages and more hours worked is expected to support household spending,” he said.
A recent report from Fruchtman Marketing forecasts 2022 jewelry sales will take a similar path of moderate growth compared with the period of strong growth last year.
“None of us can see around corners or say with any assurance what the future holds, but policy actions will likely be the deciding factor shaping the economic outlook this year and next,” Kleinhenz said.
To read the full economic review for July, visit the NRF website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
AuctionsNov 02, 2026
197-Carat ‘Romanov Sapphire’ Heads to Sotheby’s GenevaThe rare jewel, which has links to Russia’s Romanov dynasty, is estimated to fetch up to $2 million.
CrimeNov 02, 2026
Customs Seizes More Than 400 Fake Audemars Piguet WatchesIt is one of several seizures of counterfeit jewelry and watches by U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials in Louisville this year.
MajorsNov 02, 2026
Lawrence Bock, Caryl Capeci, Amanda Coleman-Phelps Join JA Board Jewelers of America announced the additions to its board of directors following its annual general meeting, held last week.
Brought to you by
How Overnight Mountings’ Bridal Builder Makes Custom Engagement Ring Design Easier to SellWith customization becoming more expected in engagement ring shopping, the Bridal Builder makes the process tangible.
CollectionsNov 02, 2026
Olympian Kristi Yamaguchi, Heller Jewelers Expand ‘Always Dream’ CollectionThe jewelry collection supports Yamaguchi’s Always Dream foundation, which provides reading and educational resources to families in need.
Weekly QuizOct 29, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsOct 30, 2026
Illuminating Carved Paraiba Pendant, Suite of Moonstones Wow at Spectrum AwardsSpectrum’s “Best of Show” honors went to a 101-carat Paraiba carved to look like Medusa that has a magnet-activated LED light.
TrendsOct 30, 2026
Edina Kiss’ Pendants Say ‘Eye’m Watching You’Our Halloween Pieces of the Week are four “Eye” pendants, each set with colorful gemstones.
Brought to you by
A Diamond Is Forever Launches 2026 Holiday Campaign Championing Natural DiamondsA Diamond Is Forever's holiday campaign reimagines natural diamond icons for a new generation celebrating individuality.
MajorsOct 30, 2026
The RealReal Hires Former eBay Exec as New Chief Merchandising OfficerAlexis Hoopes expanded eBay’s “Authenticity Guarantee” program during her tenure.
WatchesOct 29, 2026
Bucherer Opens Rolex Boutique in Washington StateThe Rolex-owned retailer’s new 4,700-square-foot store’s façade honors the Pacific Northwest’s evergreen forests.
TrendsOct 29, 2026
Amanda's Style File: All Treats, No Tricks Get into the Halloween spirit with this roundup of 13 spooky jewels.
MajorsOct 29, 2026
Gesswein Hires Longtime Bench Jeweler, Educator Ann CahoonCahoon was appointed strategic account and educational program manager at Gesswein, which recently joined Continental Buying Group.
MajorsOct 29, 2026
Amanda Seyfried Stars In Tiffany & Co.’s Holiday CampaignTiffany & Co.’s latest ambassador makes her debut in its “Love Is a Gift” holiday campaign.
EditorsOct 28, 2026
These Wicked Jewels Will Cast a Spell on YouFor her annual Halloween story, Senior Editor Lenore Fedow highlights bewitching jewels fit for a witch that go from day to unholy night.
CrimeOct 28, 2026
Man In Florida Who Swallowed Tiffany & Co. Earrings ConvictedJaythan Gilder was found guilty of robbery and grand theft after stealing and then ingesting nearly $800,000 worth of Tiffany & Co. jewelry.
MajorsOct 28, 2026
Stuller’s Holiday Campaign Lets the ‘Magic of the Moment’ ShineThe holiday campaign includes key jewelry trends, a curated holiday gift guide, and resources to help jewelers prepare for holiday shoppers.
SourcingOct 27, 2026
De Beers Celebrates the Holidays With New ‘Desert Diamonds’ CampaignThe “Icons” holiday campaign spotlights four classic diamond jewelry styles reimagined in “Desert Diamond” tones.
IndependentsOct 27, 2026
Solomon Brothers Acquires Mervis Diamond ImportersSolomon Brothers, which has three stores in the Metro Atlanta area, said it may continue to acquire other independent jewelers.
IndependentsOct 27, 2026
Gabriel & Co. Supports Charity Partner DKMS With Gala, New JewelsThe fine jewelry brand raised $2.3 million at its annual gala that supports the nonprofit’s fight against blood cancer and blood disorders.
Events & AwardsOct 27, 2026
JFC Announces 2027 ‘Facets’ HonoreesThe annual fundraising event is slated for June 6, 2027, at The Venetian Resort in Las Vegas.
CollectionsOct 26, 2026
Bliss Lau’s ‘Vantage’ Point Is the Hawaiian HorizonIn her “Vantage” collection, Lau explores heritage, identity, and inner strength through designs featuring blue-green Guatemalan jade.
MajorsOct 26, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Takes Consumers Behind the ScenesThe jeweler gave the public backstage tours of its flagship store and its design and innovation workshop as part of LVMH’s open house.
Events & AwardsOct 26, 2026
Support JFC’s ‘Monster Mash Challenge,’ If You DareVote for which jewelry professional should dress up as a monster to support Jewelers for Children’s annual Halloween fundraiser.
MajorsOct 23, 2026
PGI USA Set to Close at Year’s EndThe closure is part of a global restructuring that also includes PGI winding down its operations in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
SourcingOct 23, 2026
Rachel Chalchinsky’s ‘Survivor Tribute’ RingThe ring, our Piece of the Week, was designed by eight-year breast cancer survivor Rachel Chalchinsky of Color Source Gems.
TechnologyOct 23, 2026
JA Unveils New Website, LogoThe website offers enhanced member benefit access, industry directories, educational resources, a job board, and access to the MJSA Journal.
FinancialsOct 23, 2026
Kering’s Jewelry Sales Up Double Digits in Q3Boucheron and Pomellato had a strong third quarter, with Kering looking at jewelry as an increasingly important part of its portfolio.
