SurveysFeb 24, 2022
Consumer Confidence Slips in February Amid InflationSurveysMar 17, 2022
NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
Related stories will be right here …
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
WatchesAug 21, 2026
Bremont Names Former Vacheron Constantin Exec CMODaniel Bing was formerly the marketing director for the Americas at Vacheron Constantin.
CollectionsAug 21, 2026
Bijules, Kamyen Serve Up ‘Topspin’ Tennis Bracelet Ahead of US OpenIn our Piece of the Week, the designers reimagine the tennis bracelet with green enamel wrapped around a strand of “Desert Diamonds.”
PodcastsAug 20, 2026
Episode 8: Diamond Industry Update With David Bonaparte & Ronnie VanderLindenThe industry veterans join the podcast to discuss diamond marketing, the FTC Jewelry Guides, and lobbying for lower tariffs.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
TechnologyAug 20, 2026
A New AI-Powered Gemstone Identification App Is HereFounder Vik Westermann said the app is a “starting point” to inspire people to work with appraisers and gem labs, not replace them.
Weekly QuizAug 20, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsAug 20, 2026
Storied Unicorn Brooch Up for Auction Gallops to New Home The Verdura brooch, which belonged to the late Virginia Fortune Ryan Ogilvy, was sold to a private collector in Asia.
Events & AwardsAug 20, 2026
MJSA Education Foundation Names 5 Scholarship WinnersThe five students were awarded a total of $10,000 through the nonprofit’s 2026 “Future of Jewelry Making” scholarship.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
MajorsAug 20, 2026
Plumb Club Elects 2026-2027 BoardSteven Lerche is now beginning his term as the youngest member to become president of The Plumb Club’s elected executive committee.
MajorsAug 19, 2026
Mike Alexander To Succeed Scott Murphy as Jewelers Mutual CEO Murphy will retire at the end of the year and Alexander, currently the company’s president, will take over at the start of 2027.
Policies & IssuesAug 19, 2026
Spinelli Kilcollin Embraces Dupes With Trade-In ProgramThe jeweler is encouraging customers who own lookalike rings to come into the store and trade them for credit towards an authentic piece.
MajorsAug 19, 2026
Zales Wants You to Wear Fine Jewelry Every DayThe new campaign, “You Are The Occasion,” discourages shoppers from saving their fine jewelry for special occasions only.
SourcingAug 19, 2026
Vasant Mehta, a Dedicated Diamond Industry Leader, Dies at 81Mehta led India’s GJEPC through the 2008 financial crisis and was respected worldwide for his wisdom, integrity, and knowledge.
CrimeAug 18, 2026
2 California Men Arrested in Fatal Vehicle Smash RobberyOne is the driver who allegedly crashed a car into a Sacramento jewelry store in April, striking a 71-year-old employee who later died.
ColumnistsAug 18, 2026
Peter Smith: The IKEA Effect and Bridal Branding In a new column, Peter Smith posits that people actually enjoy putting together IKEA furniture, and the same is true for engagement rings.
CrimeAug 18, 2026
Thieves Snatch $1M in Jewelry From New Jersey Jeweler9lakha Jewelers in Iselin, New Jersey, was the target of a smash-and-grab robbery on Aug. 8.
Lab-GrownAug 18, 2026
Ring Concierge, Kendall Jenner’s Tequila Brand Collab on GiveawayThe jeweler has partnered with 818 Tequila to gift lab-grown diamond studs to a bride-to-be and their bridal party.
Events & AwardsAug 17, 2026
Exhibition on Louis Comfort Tiffany’s Studios to Open at The MetThe exhibition will feature more than 100 drawings of stained-glass lampshades, windows, and more, many created by women and émigrés.
CollectionsAug 17, 2026
Marquise Diamonds Dance in Spinelli Kilcollin’s ‘Wren’ CollectionMarquise-cut diamonds in drop charms are the center of the new collection, reflecting the movement of a dancer in modular styles.
Events & AwardsAug 17, 2026
There’s a New Jewelry Show Coming to FloridaThe inaugural Fort Lauderdale Jewelry, Antique, & Object Show will be held from Jan. 28 through Feb. 1, 2027.
IndependentsAug 14, 2026
Smyth Jewelers to Open Fourth LocationThe family-owned jeweler will open a new showroom in Bel Air, Maryland, this fall.
CrimeAug 14, 2026
Wife of Man Convicted in Jeweler’s Murder Sentenced for Conspiracy Amanda Ileana Hernandez is married to Carlos Hernandez, one of two men in prison for the 2024 murder of Michigan jeweler Hussein Murray.
TrendsAug 14, 2026
Paul Morelli’s Latest ‘Wavey Vine’ Earrings Embrace ColorThe reimagined jewel, our Piece of the Week, trades the diamonds in the original 1998 design for blue, pink, yellow, and green sapphires.
Supplier BulletinAug 13, 2026
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSponsored by American Gem Trade Association
FinancialsAug 13, 2026
Pandora’s ‘Talisman’ Collection Shines, Lab-Grown Diamond Sales FallIn the United States, second-quarter sales were flat amid soft consumer sentiment and lower in-store traffic.
AuctionsAug 13, 2026
This Gold Cadbury ‘Conundrum’ Egg Set a World Auction RecordThe 22-karat gold egg, sold at Batemans Auctioneers in the U.K., was part of a 1980s treasure hunt ad campaign for Cadbury Creme Eggs.
SourcingAug 13, 2026
2,488-Carat Diamond, Largest Found in Botswana, Has a New Owner Lucara Diamond Corp., which recovered the “Motswedi” diamond from the Karowe mine, sold the stone for an undisclosed amount.
