NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.

Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
The Latest

The highlight of a single-owner jewelry and watch collection, it’s estimated to fetch up to $7 million at auction this December.

CEO Efraim Grinberg noted a resurgence in the fashion watch market.

The “Bullseye” necklace, with vintage bakelite and peridot, August’s birthstone, is the perfect transitional piece as summer turns to fall.

Jewelers of America is leading the charge to protect the industry amidst rising economic threats.

Sponsored by Clientbook


It will classify lab-grown stones into one of two categories, “premium” or “standard,” in lieu of giving specific color and clarity grades.

President Duma Boko addressed the country’s medical supply chain crisis in a recent televised address.

As a leading global jewelry supplier, Rio Grande is rapidly expanding and developing new solutions to meet the needs of jewelers worldwide.

Former Free People buyer Afton Robertson-Kanne recently joined the retailer.

The jeweler teamed up with two local organizations for its inaugural “Back to School and Bling” event.

The singer’s new bling, reportedly a natural old mine-cut diamond, is no paper ring.

Dubbed the “Imboo,” or “buffalo,” emerald, the rough gemstone is part of Gemfields’ latest emerald auction, which is taking place now.

The “Play” collection centers on nostalgic toys that have kinetic elements to carry playfulness and wonder into adulthood.

Designer Christina Puchi, the creative force behind CCWW Designs, has created charms and pendants based on iconic candies and crackers.

The Jonas Brothers star showed off new timepieces against the backdrop of his favorite spots in his home state of New Jersey.

The family-owned jeweler in Fayetteville, North Carolina, is in the hands of the second generation.

In his latest column, Emmanuel Raheb shares tips for encouraging customers to treat themselves to new jewelry.

The new stand-alone Rolex boutique is housed in the former Odd Fellows Hall, a landmark built in 1897.

The Brilliant Earth ambassador co-designed a diamond medallion featuring meaningful symbols.

Wrap jewelry is more than just a trend; it’s the perfect motif for the coming season of layering, scarves, and pumpkin spice.

The three-day watch collector show, coming this October, will feature 44 exhibiting brands, as well as a new dinner experience.

Sriram “Ram” Natarajan is now GIA’s senior vice president of laboratory operations and is based out of the lab’s headquarters in Carlsbad.

The one-of-a-kind collar represents the beauty of imperfection and the strength to rebuild.

Three C-suite executives, including former CEO Tom Nolan, have resigned as part of what the company describes as a “transition.”

The retailer, which recently filed Chapter 11, inked a deal to sell its North American business and intellectual property.

Target CEO Brian Cornell will step down in February and be replaced by the company’s chief operating officer, Michael Fiddelke.

The group met with the president's senior trade advisor earlier this week to express the industry’s concerns about the effects of tariffs.