NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.

Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
The Latest

Uc Thí Vo, who co-owned Kim Tin Jewelry in Sacramento with her husband of 40 years, was killed during the November 2024 robbery.

Manashe Sezanayev pleaded guilty to grand larceny and is expected to receive five years’ probation when he’s sentenced in May.

The March birthstone pairs perfectly with hues of Mocha Mousse, Pantone’s Color of the Year for 2025.

Emergencies can happen anytime, anywhere , and Jewelers of America has what you need to be prepared for it all.

Emmanuel Raheb shares strategies to prepare for, publicize, and engage the audience during events on platforms like TikTok and Zoom.


From Doja Cat to Mikey Madison and Selena Gomez, many of this year’s Academy Awards attendees donned drop necklaces.

Originally slated to take effect in April, official U.S. Customs and Border Protection documents now show the implementation date as “TBD.”

The jewelry industry faces challenges from lab-grown diamonds. A diamond ETF can restore natural diamonds' value and drive investor demand.

The application period for the program is now open for aspiring gemologists around the world.

The work of Indigenous designer Joe Big Mountain, these earrings are similar to the pair Lily Gladstone just wore to the SAG Awards.

A metal detectorist uncovered the ring created in memory of Sir Richard Rainsford, who presided over some of England’s last witch trials.

Fine jewelry consultant and publicist Francesca Simons joins Amanda Gizzi and Natalie Francisco to discuss the trends set to rise this year.

Harlow’s partner, NBA player Kyle Kuzma, worked with Vobara to design the ring, which features oval and pear-shaped diamonds.

The Danish jeweler released the next chapter of its “Be Love” campaign, which celebrates love in all its forms.

The 13 lots on offer were comprised of material that previously went unsold at the miner’s November auction.

The learning workshop and the convention are both scheduled to take place April 26 and 27 in Montgomery, Alabama.

The EU, like the U.S., also now will require diamond importers to provide information about where exactly the diamonds were mined.

The formal signing of the agreement comes nearly two years after De Beers and Botswana initially announced they had reached a new deal.

The charity will celebrate Pandora CEO Alexander Lacik and Brilliant Earth CEO Beth Gerstein at its annual event in Las Vegas.

Retailers need to have the right merchandise, marketing, and people in place to stay on top in a sea of uncertainty, Peter Smith writes.

Senior Editor Lenore Fedow traveled to Smyth Jewelers in Maryland to see the first of 15 revamped in-store boutiques Tacori is rolling out.

The parent company of HSN and QVC is undergoing a restructuring.

The company’s newest brand ambassador Eiza González will also be featured in the ads for the women’s campaign.

Declining supply and growing demand persist in the colored gemstone market, presenters from Gemworld said at AGTA GemFair Tucson.

The designer’s new patent transforms the everyday clasp into her jumbo “Lobster Clasp,” modeled after the look of a crustacean’s claw.

Kenewendo, Botswana’s minister of minerals and energy, will discuss the future of diamonds.

Sales at the Rio Tinto-owned mine also slid by a double-digit percentage, falling 37 percent in a difficult market for diamonds.