SurveysFeb 24, 2022
Consumer Confidence Slips in February Amid InflationSurveysMar 17, 2022
NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
Related stories will be right here …
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
More on Surveys
The Latest
Events & AwardsJun 06, 2025
Here Are the 2025 Retailer Hall of Fame InducteesThis year’s honorees include a Midwest retailer and two multi-store independents, one in New York and the other in New England.
CollectionsJun 06, 2025
Piece of the Week: Harwell Godfrey’s ‘Granny Squares Eleanor’ Necklace As an homage to iconic crochet blankets, the necklace features the nostalgic motif through a kaleidoscope of cabochon-cut stones.
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
The 12 Fresh Faces in Couture’s Design AtelierDiscover the dozen up-and-coming brands exhibiting in the Design Atelier for the first time.
Brought to you by
The True Power Behind the Counter: Why Sales Associates Are the Heart of the Jewelry BusinessWhen investing in your jewelry business, it's important not to overlook the most crucial element of success: the sales associates.
SourcingJun 05, 2025
A Rare Suite of Rubies Has Arrived in Las VegasThe “Royal Ruby” Collection is a quintet of untreated rubies curated by collector Jack Abraham.
Weekly QuizJun 05, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Daymond John to Give Keynote at JCK Las VegasThe entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.
MajorsJun 05, 2025
Platinum Guild International Updates Leadership TeamTwo existing executives have been given new roles.
Brought to you by
Clienteling Isn’t a Buzzword. It’s an Essential Business Model.More shoppers are walking out without buying. Here’s how smart jewelers can bring them back—and the tool they need to do it right.
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Zillion Announces 'Women in STEM' Scholarship RecipientMeredith Tiderington, an electrical engineering student, was selected for the award.
Lab-GrownJun 04, 2025
GIA Reverting to More General Terminology for Lab-Grown DiamondsIt will quit assigning the stones specific color and clarity grades in favor of applying “new descriptive terminology.”
Events & AwardsJun 04, 2025
As JCK Talks Returns, Don’t Miss These 12 SessionsFrom design trends to sustainability, here’s a roundup of can’t-miss education sessions at JCK Las Vegas.
CrimeJun 04, 2025
10 Safety Tips for the Las Vegas Shows The Jewelers’ Security Alliance offers advice for those attending the annual trade shows.
MajorsJun 04, 2025
Amy Curran Promoted at Hill & Co.Her new role is director of strategic initiatives.
CollectionsJun 03, 2025
In Her Latest Collection, Viviana Langhoff Is Leaning Into GoldThe designer is embracing bold pieces with weight to them in “AU79,” a collection she celebrated with a creative launch party.
FinancialsJun 03, 2025
Signet Jewelers Sees Turnaround in Q1 With Sales Ticking Up 2%On an earnings call, CEO J.K. Symancyk discussed what’s working for the company and how it’s preparing for the potential impact of tariffs.
CollectionsJun 03, 2025
Dakota Johnson Is Roberto Coin’s New Brand AmbassadorThe actress stars in the latest campaign set in Venice, Italy, and is set to participate in other creative initiatives for the jeweler.
GradingJun 03, 2025
Mason-Kay Jade Adds ‘Fei Cui’ to Jade ReportsThe company has joined other labs, including GIA and Lotus Gemology, in adopting the Chinese term for "jadeite jade."
SourcingJun 02, 2025
Gemfields’ June Auction to Include 36-Carat RubyThe large stone will be offered at its June sale along with a selection of secondary-type rubies from a new area of the Montepuez mine.
GradingJun 02, 2025
GSI Opens New Lab in Thailand Located in Bangkok, the laboratory is Gemological Science International’s 14th location worldwide.
TrendsJun 02, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Three Gems for June Those born in June have a myriad of options for their birthstone jewelry.
SourcingJun 02, 2025
David Allouche Joins Grandview Klein DiamondsThe diamond industry veteran has been named its senior sales executive.
FinancialsMay 30, 2025
Movado’s Q1 Sales Slip Amid ‘Challenging’ Retail Environment The company plans to raise the prices of select watches to offset the impact of tariffs.
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Tariffs & Designers: Navigating Pricing in an Unstable EnvironmentBetween tariffs and the sky-high cost of gold, designers enter this year’s Las Vegas shows with a lot of questions and few answers.
CollectionsMay 30, 2025
Piece of the Week: Renato Cipullo’s ‘Hematite Blaze’ NecklaceDesigned by founder Renato and his daughter Serena Cipullo, it showcases a flame motif representing unity and the power of gathering.
Policies & IssuesMay 30, 2025
Trade Court Declares Trump’s Tariffs InvalidHowever, the tariffs remain in effect in the short term, as an appeals court has stayed the U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision.
CollectionsMay 29, 2025
Britney Spears Files Trademark for New Jewelry LineThe pop icon is one step closer to launching her “B Tiny” jewelry collection, a collection she first began posting about last fall.
Supplier BulletinMay 29, 2025
Inoveo Platinum Grain, Exclusively Distributed by StullerSponsored by Stuller
