SurveysFeb 24, 2022
Consumer Confidence Slips in February Amid InflationSurveysMar 17, 2022
NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
Related stories will be right here …
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
TrendsJul 31, 2026
These Pieces of the Week Are Sweet Edina Kiss’ “Popsicle” pendant and Karina Choudhrie’s “Ice Cream” charm satisfy that summer craving for a sweet piece of jewelry.
MajorsJul 31, 2026
Macy’s Iconic Red Shopping Bag Sign Torn DownThe massive billboard has been in the same spot on the department store’s Herald Square flagship store for decades.
SourcingJul 31, 2026
Gemfields’ H1 Revenue Jumps 72%The miner’s ruby and emerald auctions brought in a combined $102.9 million.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
SourcingJul 30, 2026
De Beers Sale in ‘Final, Most Challenging’ Phase, Anglo CEO SaysThe goal is for the De Beers sale to be finished by the second half of 2026, with the subsequent approvals process expected to take a year.
Weekly QuizJul 30, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Policies & IssuesJul 30, 2026
JA Heads Back to Washington as New Wave of Tariffs Takes Effect David Bonaparte, along with Tim Haake and Ronnie VanderLinden, continue to lobby for tariff exemptions for diamonds, gemstones, and pearls.
Events & AwardsJul 30, 2026
Vicenzaoro Releases 2026 Education LineupThe trade show, slated for Sept. 4-8 in Vicenza, Italy, will feature sessions on trends, AI, gemology, and manufacturing.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
Events & AwardsJul 30, 2026
Hillsborough Show Moves to New Location for 2026The public shopping event featuring art, jewelry, watches, and rare collectibles, will take place in Santa Clara, California, this fall.
EditorsJul 29, 2026
Q&A: The Past and Future of Angola’s Diamond Industry Endiama Commercial Director Elton Escrivão knows people have a lot of misperceptions about Angola. He wants to change that.
MajorsJul 29, 2026
Kevin Reilly Retires After 39 Years in the Jewelry Industry Reilly has been with PGI USA for the last 20 years, leading partnership development and professional education.
FinancialsJul 29, 2026
Kering’s H1 Jewelry Sales Up 14%Boucheron reached record sales while Pomellato found success in its signature collections.
Events & AwardsJul 29, 2026
Lauren Harwell Godfrey Designs a Flag for ArkansasShe was one of more than 120 American designers who created flags for the “United Flags of Fashion” project led by CFDA and Vogue.
ColumnistsJul 28, 2026
Peter Smith: Why Your Job Postings May Be Working Against You Smith reveals the method The Retail Smiths use to help retailers and vendors write better job postings.
FinancialsJul 28, 2026
Tiffany & Co., Bulgari Lead the Way for LVMH in H1LVMH’s jewelry and watch brands outperformed the company’s other divisions in an environment the company described as “disrupted.”
CollectionsJul 28, 2026
Lionheart’s New Collection Unites Spiritual Iconography“Sacred Heart” features symbols like crosses, angel wings, the Star of David, and the evil eye as a representation of coexistence.
Events & AwardsJul 28, 2026
The Edge Funding 2 Scholarships Via 24 Karat Club SEUS The scholarships will go to early-career professionals looking to study gemology, bench work and jewelry design, or store operations.
SourcingJul 27, 2026
‘Rubies’ Goes on Display at Harvard MuseumThe exhibition reveals the gemology, geology, and cultural history of the iconic red gemstone.
Policies & IssuesJul 24, 2026
New Trump Tariffs: What They Mean for Jewelry The new sweeping slate of tariffs impacts 60 countries, including India, China, Thailand, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates.
TrendsJul 24, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: Ode to ‘The Odyssey’From coin pendants to diamond shields, these old world-inspired jewels are the perfect accessory for an epic journey.
TrendsJul 24, 2026
Courtney Leidy’s Silk Cord Pendants Center Unexpected Pairings Our Piece of the Week pairs a checkerboard-cut amethyst with an ivy green silk cord.
PodcastsJul 23, 2026
Episode 7: Reinhold Jewelers on the Power of RelationshipsMildred Marcano Abrams and Yael Reinhold join the podcast to talk community connections, holiday plans, and preserving Reinhold’s legacy.
SourcingJul 23, 2026
De Beers’ Production Jumps 88 Percent in Q2 Production also was up in the first half of 2026 but is expected to “substantially” decrease in H2 as two key mines undergo maintenance.
CollectionsJul 23, 2026
Silvia Furmanovich’s New Collection Travels Back to the 1920s“Art Deco” fuses ancestral techniques, rare materials, and modern perspectives as a tribute to the optimism and curiosity of the movement.
IndependentsJul 23, 2026
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens Casino StoreThe jeweler’s newest store is inside Arkansas’ Saracen Casino Resort.
WatchesJul 23, 2026
Movado Inks Licensing Deal With Kate Spade New YorkThe watch company will design, manufacture, and distribute Kate Spade New York watches.
Policies & IssuesJul 22, 2026
Trump to Put 50% Tariff on Canadian Goods The higher tax is set to go into effect in August and will apply to loose polished diamonds as well as precious and base metals jewelry.
