NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.

Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
The Latest

This year’s honorees include a Midwest retailer and two multi-store independents, one in New York and the other in New England.

As an homage to iconic crochet blankets, the necklace features the nostalgic motif through a kaleidoscope of cabochon-cut stones.

Discover the dozen up-and-coming brands exhibiting in the Design Atelier for the first time.

When investing in your jewelry business, it's important not to overlook the most crucial element of success: the sales associates.

The “Royal Ruby” Collection is a quintet of untreated rubies curated by collector Jack Abraham.


The entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.

Two existing executives have been given new roles.

More shoppers are walking out without buying. Here’s how smart jewelers can bring them back—and the tool they need to do it right.

Meredith Tiderington, an electrical engineering student, was selected for the award.

It will quit assigning the stones specific color and clarity grades in favor of applying “new descriptive terminology.”

From design trends to sustainability, here’s a roundup of can’t-miss education sessions at JCK Las Vegas.

The Jewelers’ Security Alliance offers advice for those attending the annual trade shows.

Her new role is director of strategic initiatives.

The designer is embracing bold pieces with weight to them in “AU79,” a collection she celebrated with a creative launch party.

On an earnings call, CEO J.K. Symancyk discussed what’s working for the company and how it’s preparing for the potential impact of tariffs.

The actress stars in the latest campaign set in Venice, Italy, and is set to participate in other creative initiatives for the jeweler.

The company has joined other labs, including GIA and Lotus Gemology, in adopting the Chinese term for "jadeite jade."

The large stone will be offered at its June sale along with a selection of secondary-type rubies from a new area of the Montepuez mine.

Located in Bangkok, the laboratory is Gemological Science International’s 14th location worldwide.

Those born in June have a myriad of options for their birthstone jewelry.

The diamond industry veteran has been named its senior sales executive.

The company plans to raise the prices of select watches to offset the impact of tariffs.

Between tariffs and the sky-high cost of gold, designers enter this year’s Las Vegas shows with a lot of questions and few answers.

Designed by founder Renato and his daughter Serena Cipullo, it showcases a flame motif representing unity and the power of gathering.

However, the tariffs remain in effect in the short term, as an appeals court has stayed the U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision.

The pop icon is one step closer to launching her “B Tiny” jewelry collection, a collection she first began posting about last fall.

Sponsored by Stuller