SurveysFeb 24, 2022
Consumer Confidence Slips in February Amid InflationSurveysMar 17, 2022
NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
Related stories will be right here …
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
More on Surveys
The Latest
TrendsApr 03, 2025
Tallulah Willis Imbues Antique Engagement Ring With MagicThe 4-carat, old mine brilliant-cut diamond engagement ring was co-designed by Willis and New York City-based brand Karina Noel.
SourcingApr 03, 2025
Canadian Mine Produces 158-Carat Yellow Diamond Rio Tinto unearthed the diamond at its Diavik mine in Canada’s Northwest Territories.
CollectionsApr 03, 2025
Buccellati to Open Immersive Exhibition in MilanThe multisensory experience, open April 8-13, will feature the brand’s silver creations among dream-like scenes of natural landscapes.
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They DeserveBench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.
Policies & IssuesApr 03, 2025
Jewelers of America to Hold Webinar on TariffsThe virtual event will take place April 7 at 3 p.m.
Weekly QuizMar 27, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsApr 02, 2025
Bea Bongiasca’s ‘Tarallo’ Collection Expansion Is a ZooThe pieces in “Animali Tarallo” portray animals from stingrays to elephants through portraits and interpretations of their patterns.
MajorsApr 02, 2025
Neiman Marcus’ Dallas Flagship Will Remain Open, For NowParent company Saks Global said the iconic location will be open through the holiday season as it decides what to do with the space.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
SourcingApr 02, 2025
Winston’s Collection of Natural Color Diamonds Now on Display in D.C. Ronald Winston, son of Harry Winston, donated the diamonds to the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.
Events & AwardsApr 02, 2025
Punchmark to Host Client WorkshopThe educational event will take place in Charlotte, North Carolina, this May.
IndependentsApr 01, 2025
Bergman Jewelers in Omaha Closing After 137 YearsThe independent jeweler first opened its doors in 1888.
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in FloridaThe debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor ShortageThe roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry CollectionThe “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in DiamondsDiamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With AcquisitionThe Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH WatchesThe longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry StoreAuthorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in EnglishLotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ RingThe ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand AmbassadorThe Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.
IndependentsMar 26, 2025
Bailey’s Fine Jewelry Acquires Fellow NC Independent JewelerThe family-owned retailer is the new owner of Morrison Smith Jewelers in Charlotte, North Carolina.
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco WatchesThe “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.
