Surveys

NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices

SurveysMar 17, 2022

NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices

Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.

2022_Winter Shopping.jpg
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.

Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.

Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.

The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.

“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.

Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.

In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years. 

 Related stories will be right here … 

The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent. 

Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.

Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.

The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.

It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.

“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release. 

Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.

Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”

“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.

“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”

“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos

Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.

“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.

“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.

The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.

Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.

Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.

The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.

The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.

The Latest

Surveillance image of Macy’s jewelry thief
CrimeFeb 13, 2025
Macy’s Employee Foils $1.5M Jewelry Theft

The employee confronted the thief, causing the suspect to flee and leave behind the suitcases full of jewelry.

Namdia rough diamonds
SourcingFeb 13, 2025
Namibian Diamond Co. Suspends CEO, COO After Deadly Heist

Namib Desert Diamonds also put its security manager on leave following last month’s robbery that left one employee dead.

Spectrum and Cutting Edge Buyer’s Choice awards
Events & AwardsFeb 13, 2025
AGTA Announces Buyer’s Choice Award Winners for Spectrum, Cutting Edge

AGTA recently concluded its 2025 GemFair event in Tucson and is already gearing up for next year’s show, set for Feb. 2-6, 2026.

Top Image.png
Brought to you by
3 Ways to Capitalize on America’s Newfound Love of Colored Gems

Colored stones are stepping into a jewelry spotlight typically reserved for diamonds—are you ready to sell color?

Royal Chain models in 14-karat gold fashion links
CollectionsFeb 13, 2025
Royal Chain Releases Its Spring 2025 Catalog

More than 400 new pieces are featured in the supplier’s latest catalog.

Weekly QuizFeb 13, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Azra Mehdi pink sapphire ombré heart dog tag necklace in 14-karat rose gold
TrendsFeb 13, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Hearts for Valentine’s Day

This curation celebrates love with heart-shaped jewelry of all shapes and sizes.

Jewelers Relief Fund logo
Policies & IssuesFeb 13, 2025
Jewelers Relief Fund Reopened to Aid Victims of LA Fires

The fund is collecting money for jewelry businesses damaged by the wildfires in Los Angeles County.

Resolutions - 2025.jpg
Brought to you by
3 New Year’s Resolutions for Jewelry Lovers

The new year feels like a clean slate, inspiring reflection, hope, and the motivation to become better versions of ourselves.

3 natural diamond engagement rings by Marrow Fine, Stephanie Gottlieb, Single Stone, and Sylvie Jewelry
TrendsFeb 12, 2025
5 Engagement Ring Trends Expected to Rule 2025

From chunky bands to vintage diamond cuts and bezel settings, these are the trends experts are seeing take over the bridal market.

Jean Prounis cushion-cut diamond engagement ring
EditorsFeb 12, 2025
Q&A: Marion Fasel on the History of Diamond Engagement Rings

Fasel discusses researching her new book, the most enduring engagement ring styles, and the diamond shape Taylor Swift will pick.

De Beers Jewellers Embrace Bracelet
CollectionsFeb 12, 2025
De Beers Jewellers’ New High Jewelry Pays Homage to the Beauty of Trees

The “Essence of Nature, Chapter One” collection echoes trees and roots, literally and figuratively, through three sets of high jewelry.

Shree Ramkrishna Exports (SRK) diamonds
SourcingFeb 12, 2025
SRK Announces Notable Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Late last year, the India-based diamond manufacturer recorded emissions per carat that are 34 percent lower than the industry average.

Peter Smith
ColumnistsFeb 12, 2025
Peter Smith: 9 Store Manager Archetypes

Smith details the types of store managers he’s encountered, with the goal of helping retailers find a person who’s a fit for their store.

myGemma showroom
TechnologyFeb 12, 2025
MyGemma Now Offers Consignment Service

The secondhand reseller stocks pre-owned designer jewelry and watches, along with other luxury goods.

 Ghirardelli Chocolocket
CollectionsFeb 12, 2025
Ghirardelli Is Slipping Chocolate Into a Locket This Valentine's Day

The limited-edition “Chocolocket” fits a mini square of Ghirardelli chocolate inside.

Jewelers of America 20 Under 40 graphic
Events & AwardsFeb 11, 2025
JA Seeking Nominations for Its Next ‘20 Under 40’ Class

The program has been expanded to include a “20 Under 40” list for jewelry suppliers and is accepting nominations through Feb. 19.

Police cars with lights on
CrimeFeb 11, 2025
2 Men Charged With Selling Stolen Jewelry, Watches in NYC Diamond District

One of the men is said to be connected to the South American crew charged with burglarizing Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow’s home.

Bulgari x MB&F Serpenti watch
WatchesFeb 11, 2025
Bulgari, MB&F Launch Reimagined ‘Serpenti’ Watch

The brands immersed one of Bulgari’s most famous historical icons in MB&F’s ultra-mechanical universe of haute horlogerie.

Boucheron Power of Couture campaign
FinancialsFeb 11, 2025
Boucheron a Bright Spot as Kering’s Full-Year Sales Sink 12%

The luxury titan’s full-year performance was weighed down by struggling sales at its star brand Gucci.

Midas Chain Diamond and Gemstone Jewelry
MajorsFeb 11, 2025
Midas Chain Releases First Diamond Collection

The jewelry manufacturer has launched more than 100 pieces made with natural diamonds.

Counterfeit Cartier “Juste Un Clou” bracelet
CrimeFeb 10, 2025
Counterfeit Jewelry Kept Kentucky Customs Agents Busy in January, CBP Says

Officers in Louisville seized 28 shipments of fake jewelry and watches that would have been worth more than $27 million if genuine.

Hearts On Fire Inside Out Collection Bracelets
CollectionsFeb 10, 2025
Hearts on Fire Flips Jewelry ‘Inside Out’ in New Collection

The collection centers on the art of tailoring, inspired by designs that feature folded fabrics, such as a tuxedo lapel.

JW Marriott Hotel in Nashville Tennessee
Events & AwardsFeb 10, 2025
Select Jewelry Show Heads to Nashville

The trade show has added a new location to its fall line-up.

Jade Trau Ladybird Charm
CollectionsFeb 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: Jade Trau’s ‘Ladybird’ Charm

From the brand’s latest collection of lucky charms, the ladybird is seen as a bearer of good fortune and a ward against negative energy.

Rough diamonds from De Beers’ Gahcho Kue diamond mine in Canada
SourcingFeb 07, 2025
De Beers’ Production Guidance Slashed, Anglo Anticipates Another Writedown

The moves come amid a prolonged period of lower demand for diamonds, particularly in China.

Stuller Bench Jeweler Workshop
Events & AwardsFeb 07, 2025
Registration Opens for Stuller’s Bench Jeweler Workshop

The workshop returns in March, along with the “Battle of the Benches” mini challenge series.

Windsor Jewelry in Indianapolis, Indiana
IndependentsFeb 06, 2025
106-Year-Old Jewelry Store Saved by New Owners

Two attorneys purchased Windsor Jewelry, which was set to close, and will retain all existing staff at the downtown Indianapolis store.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy