SurveysFeb 24, 2022
Consumer Confidence Slips in February Amid InflationSurveysMar 17, 2022
NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.
The National Retail Federation predicted retail sales could grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
New York—The National Retail Federation is predicting a strong year for retail but remains wary of the potential impacts of COVID-19, rising inflation, and international tensions.
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
Related stories will be right here …
Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
More on Surveys
The Latest
CollectionsJun 23, 2026
Francesca Villa Goes ‘On the Road’The capsule collection looks to vintage trunk pins that echo the spirit of speed, freedom, and the mythology of the American road trip.
SourcingJun 23, 2026
New Paraíba Tourmaline Source Reportedly Discovered in EthiopiaSSEF issued a notice about the potential new source of the sought-after gemstone, citing “credible reports” from trade sources.
MajorsJun 23, 2026
Etsy Says ‘Shop Other Jeffs’ This Prime DayAs Amazon Prime Day kicks off, Etsy is encouraging shoppers to support small businesses.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
Events & AwardsJun 23, 2026
AGA Announces 2026 Scholarship WinnerCole Winward is the recipient of 2026 AGA Gemological Scholarship.
Weekly QuizJun 17, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
EditorsJun 22, 2026
15 Pieces of Jewelry That Brought Us Joy in Vegas Whether they evoked nostalgia, wonder, or laughter, these jewels put a smile on our faces.
Events & AwardsJun 22, 2026
Plans Announced for New Trade Show in BaselScheduled for April 2027, Basilia will be the first watch and jewelry trade show held in Basel since the collapse of Baselworld in 2020.
Brought to you by
Building the Future of Jewelry Retail: DCA Expands Education, Leadership Development, and Workforce SolutionsDCA is preparing the next generation of professionals by supporting workforce development, leadership growth, and career advancement.
Events & AwardsJun 22, 2026
Gem Awards Opens 2027 Nomination PeriodSubmissions for the milestone 25th annual Gem Awards will be accepted across three categories from now through July 31.
WatchesJun 22, 2026
Snoopy Inspires New ‘Flying Ace’ Ball WatchThe beloved beagle dons his aviator outfit for the new Engineer Master II Snoopy Flying Ace timepiece.
AuctionsJun 18, 2026
Paraíba Tourmalines Sell for $3.4M at Sotheby'sThe recent high jewelry auction, which also featured the sale of a 10-carat blue diamond, was “a celebration of color.”
CollectionsJun 18, 2026
Michelle Obama Wears Almasika Earrings Symbolizing Feminine PowerShe wore the “Le Cauri Endiamanté” earrings, our Piece of the Week, in the Obamas’ first dual portrait for the Obama Presidential Center.
PodcastsJun 17, 2026
Episode 6: Las Vegas 2026-Trends, Traffic, Broken BathroomsCouture’s Michelle Orman joins Amanda Gizzi and Michelle Graff for this special post-Market Week episode of My Next Question.
GradingJun 17, 2026
SSEF Issues Warning on Refilled EmeraldsThe lab is seeing emeralds with filler added post-testing enter the market, accompanied by reports that indicate little to no treatment.
WatchesJun 17, 2026
Patek Philippe’s ‘Visionary’ Leader Philippe Stern Dies at 88 The third generation of the Stern family to head Patek Philippe, he navigated the “quartz crisis” and preserved the brand’s independence.
MajorsJun 17, 2026
James Avery to Revamp In-Store Retail ExperienceThe Texas-based jeweler is gradually rolling out a new experience-forward layout in its stores.
MajorsJun 17, 2026
Seahawks’ Super Bowl Ring Blends Meaningful Design, Technical CraftsmanshipThe Super Bowl LX champions were honored with diamond and blue sapphire rings by Jason of Beverly Hills.
Policies & IssuesJun 17, 2026
Community for Ethical Jewelry Names New Executive DirectorMarianna Smirnova previously spent a decade working with the Responsible Minerals Initiative, in addition to other relevant roles.
MajorsJun 16, 2026
5 Things to Know About the 2026 NBA Championship TrophyThe New York Knicks took home the Larry O'Brien Trophy crafted by Tiffany & Co.
TrendsJun 16, 2026
Post-Vegas Jewelry Trend Report: Big Beads, Western Flair, White MetalsAssociate Editor Natalie Francisco lists the trends she spotted during Jewelry Market Week that will dominate the second half of 2026.
SourcingJun 16, 2026
GemGuide Updates Ruby PricesIts app now reflects increased prices for Mozambique ruby, as well as changes to its Burma ruby charts.
MajorsJun 16, 2026
Sasha Primak Hires New Design DirectorThe manufacturer has tapped Alicia Arnold, the former director of custom design at Tiny Jewel Box.
IndependentsJun 15, 2026
DeBoulle Diamond & Jewelry to Renovate Dallas FlagshipThe revamped, elevated space will feature a two-story Patek Philippe atelier and a rooftop patio for parties.
WatchesJun 15, 2026
G-Shock, Coca-Cola Partner on Bottle-Inspired WatchThe special-edition piece marks the 140th anniversary of the iconic beverage brand.
TrendsJun 15, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: Tiny Charms Are TrendingHere are 13 small charms to inspire your layered looks this summer.
AuctionsJun 12, 2026
16th-Century ‘Hogback’ Diamond Ring Going Up for Auction in LondonFound by a metal detectorist, the ring likely belonged to a wealthy, possibly royal, owner, said Noonans.
CollectionsJun 12, 2026
Chouette Designs To Launch Collection Celebrating All Types of LoveOur Pride Month Piece of the Week, the “Margaux” ring, is part of the wife-and-wife team’s new “Lovestoned” collection.
