NRF Predicts Strong Year for Retail Despite Rising Prices
Retail sales are expected to grow 6 to 8 percent in 2022.

Retail sales are expected to grow between 6 and 8 percent year-over-year in 2022 to between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow year-over-year between 11 percent and 13 percent to between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, focusing on core retail.
The organization announced its forecast during its annual “State of Retail & the Consumer” virtual event, held Tuesday.
“There are clearly many areas where challenges remain. Those headwinds won’t go away overnight, but we expect to see durable and enduring economic growth during the rest of this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay during the presentation.
Consumers are ready to spend and have the money to back it up, said Shay.
In 2021, there was a 14 percent annual growth rate, the highest in more than 20 years.
The 2022 sales forecast is also much higher than the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 percent.
Looking to the rest of the year, the NRF is predicting strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to be slower, however, at around 3.5 percent, due in part to less fiscal stimulus, the tightening of monetary policy, and rising inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices over time consumers will pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in February and 7.9 percent year-over-year.
It marked the highest level since January 1982, climbing higher than analysts had expected.
“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a press release.
Kleinhenz also noted the potential impact of COVID-19, international tensions, and policy variability.
Dave Bruno, director of retail market insights at Aptos, shared these concerns and warned retailers to “stay vigilant.”
“There is still so much uncertainty and risk ahead,” Bruno said in a statement to National Jeweler.
“Despite somewhat solid fundamentals, consumers have so many things to contend with right now—war, inflation, fuel prices, the winding down of COVID benefits, to name just a few—which will put a strain on consumer confidence and, I suspect, future numbers.”
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often.”—Dave Bruno, Aptos
Spring holidays, like Easter and Mother’s Day, could bolster numbers through March and April, said Bruno, but retailers shouldn’t get too comfortable.
“Retailers should prepare for the uncertain months ahead by focusing on the one thing they can control: the customer experience,” he said.
“Retailers who empower shoppers with convenience, flexibility, transparency, and timely communications throughout every journey will earn the confidence of their customers and thereby encourage more purchases, more often,” said Bruno.
The U.S. Commerce Department also reported February retail sales Tuesday, which showed sales growing at a slower-than-expected pace due in part to inflation.
Retail sales grew 0.3 percent month-over-month to $658.1 billion, just below the 0.4 percent Dow Jones estimate. Year-over-year, February sales were up nearly 18 percent.
Non-store and online shopping took the biggest hit in February, with sales falling nearly 4 percent month-over-month.
The numbers for January were revised, with sales up 5 percent compared with the initial estimate of 4 percent.
The numbers provided are not adjusted for inflation.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales showed February was down 1 percent seasonally adjusted from January’s revised numbers but up 13 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
The NRF’s virtual event is available to watch on its website.
The Latest

The employee confronted the thief, causing the suspect to flee and leave behind the suitcases full of jewelry.

Namib Desert Diamonds also put its security manager on leave following last month’s robbery that left one employee dead.

AGTA recently concluded its 2025 GemFair event in Tucson and is already gearing up for next year’s show, set for Feb. 2-6, 2026.

Colored stones are stepping into a jewelry spotlight typically reserved for diamonds—are you ready to sell color?

More than 400 new pieces are featured in the supplier’s latest catalog.


This curation celebrates love with heart-shaped jewelry of all shapes and sizes.

The fund is collecting money for jewelry businesses damaged by the wildfires in Los Angeles County.

The new year feels like a clean slate, inspiring reflection, hope, and the motivation to become better versions of ourselves.

From chunky bands to vintage diamond cuts and bezel settings, these are the trends experts are seeing take over the bridal market.

Fasel discusses researching her new book, the most enduring engagement ring styles, and the diamond shape Taylor Swift will pick.

The “Essence of Nature, Chapter One” collection echoes trees and roots, literally and figuratively, through three sets of high jewelry.

Late last year, the India-based diamond manufacturer recorded emissions per carat that are 34 percent lower than the industry average.

Smith details the types of store managers he’s encountered, with the goal of helping retailers find a person who’s a fit for their store.

The secondhand reseller stocks pre-owned designer jewelry and watches, along with other luxury goods.

The limited-edition “Chocolocket” fits a mini square of Ghirardelli chocolate inside.

The program has been expanded to include a “20 Under 40” list for jewelry suppliers and is accepting nominations through Feb. 19.

One of the men is said to be connected to the South American crew charged with burglarizing Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow’s home.

The brands immersed one of Bulgari’s most famous historical icons in MB&F’s ultra-mechanical universe of haute horlogerie.

The luxury titan’s full-year performance was weighed down by struggling sales at its star brand Gucci.

The jewelry manufacturer has launched more than 100 pieces made with natural diamonds.

Officers in Louisville seized 28 shipments of fake jewelry and watches that would have been worth more than $27 million if genuine.

The collection centers on the art of tailoring, inspired by designs that feature folded fabrics, such as a tuxedo lapel.

The trade show has added a new location to its fall line-up.

From the brand’s latest collection of lucky charms, the ladybird is seen as a bearer of good fortune and a ward against negative energy.

The moves come amid a prolonged period of lower demand for diamonds, particularly in China.

The workshop returns in March, along with the “Battle of the Benches” mini challenge series.

Two attorneys purchased Windsor Jewelry, which was set to close, and will retain all existing staff at the downtown Indianapolis store.