Surveys

Retail Sales to Grow About 4 Percent This Year, NRF Says

SurveysFeb 12, 2018

Retail Sales to Grow About 4 Percent This Year, NRF Says

Online and non-store sales, meanwhile, should increase between 10 and 12 percent.

2017_Online-shopping.jpg
The NRF said 2018 retail sales will grow between 3.8 and 4.4 percent over last year, which includes a 10-12 percent increase in online and other non-store sales.

Washington--The National Retail Federation has released its growth predictions for the year ahead, and they’re slightly higher than last year’s figures.

Overall retail industry sales are expected to increase between 3.8 and 4.4 percent. Included in this number are online and all types of non-store sales, which should see a 10 to 12 percent increase over last year.

Last year, the NRF predicted retail sales would increase between 3.2 and 3.8 percent. While subject to revision, the U.S. Census Bureau’s preliminary analysis of 2017 shows that an increase slightly higher at 3.9 percent over 2016 to $3.53 trillion.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay noted that a strong holiday season is one indicator of a positive year ahead.

“A robust holiday season for retail sales is just one of many barometers that points to a consumer who is clearly feeling positive about their financial health,” he said.

“Despite headlines to the contrary, the retail industry is strong, growing and meeting consumer demand with the products they want at the prices they expect and the shopping experience they want to have, online or in store. With consumer confidence high, unemployment low and wages growing, there is every reason to believe that retail sales will be robust throughout the year.”

When National Jeweler spoke with retailers during the holiday season, several thought that a positive economic outlook, due in part to a booming stock market, was responsible for a healthy holiday season.

Last week, however, the stock market showed great volatility, trading “about 20,000 points back and forth in a roughly 2,000-point trading range,” according to an analysis by CNBC. The week was feared to be the worst for the stock market since the 2008 financial crisis, but narrowly avoided it.

Any ongoing volatility in the year ahead is likely to have a negative impact on growth.

But the NRF is also predicting positive gains for unemployment in 2018, another essential aspect of the U.S. economy.

Jobs are expected to increase by 163,000 a month this year, slightly down from last year but in line with labor market growth, and unemployment is predicted to decrease by 3.9 percent by the end of 2018.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “The underpinnings of the economy are very good and consumer spending is at the center of our outlook. The push and pull of forces both external and internal to the U.S. economy
will continue to provide challenges, but on balance we expect a good year. And as the retail industry continues to transform, retailers will leverage the new tax plan to invest in their employees, stores and new formats that engage with the ever-evolving and demanding consumer.”

Though online and non-store sales are predicted to increase more than in-store sales, TD Bank’s Retail Experience Index recently affirmed that the in-store buying experience for fine jewelry remains essential.

In a recent survey of 1,021 consumers, the financial institution found that 47 percent of jewelry shoppers spent one to two hours in a jewelry store on average before making a major purchase and tended to visit three to four different stores.

Underscoring the importance of reaching consumers via multiple channels of sale, 47 percent of these shoppers spent three to six hours researching online. Ultimately, 54 percent of customers ended up buying in-store, 34 percent online and 10 percent through a retailer’s app. 

Jewelry shoppers also continue to be repeat purchasers. Seventy-eight percent of the shoppers who had spent $500 or more in the last year said they were “very” or “extremely likely” to make another significant purchase in the next six months, indicating that they are likely turning to fine jewelry purchases for occasions, like birthdays and holidays.

TD Bank said that all of this data highlights the importance of the in-store experience, as 60 percent of shoppers said that knowledgeable sales associates are “very important” to deciding where to shop and 69 percent of them sought help from an associate during their last jewelry store purchase.

Seventy-nine percent of those surveyed said the sales associate was influential in deciding their ultimate purchase.
Ashley Davisis the senior editor, fashion at National Jeweler, covering all things related to design, style and trends.

The Latest

Sylvie Jewelry Auranova Collection Campaign Imagery
CollectionsApr 25, 2025
Sylvie Looks to Water in New Sculptural Bridal Collection

“Shell Auranova” is the next generation of the brand’s bridal line, featuring half-bezel engagement rings with bold and fluid designs.

Pomellato Nudo toi et moi ring
FinancialsApr 25, 2025
Kering’s Jewelry Brands Persevere as Q1 Sales Sink 14%

Boucheron and Pomellato performed well in an otherwise bleak quarter for Kering amid struggles at Gucci.

Deborah Meyers Experience The Birds Earrings
EditorsApr 25, 2025
Piece of the Week: Deborah Meyers Experience’s ‘The Birds’ Earrings

Designer Deborah Meyers created her birds from oxidized sterling silver, rose-cut diamond eyes, and Akoya Keshi pearl feathers.

ejap cohort 1872x1052.png
Brought to you by
Emerging Jewelers Accelerator Program Announces Second Cohort of Aspiring Jewelry Entrepreneurs

Six new retail businesses were selected for the 2025 program, which began in January.

Melee diamonds from De Beers
SourcingApr 25, 2025
De Beers Sales, Production Fall in Q1 Amid Uncertainty

The company said it expects sightholders to remain “cautious” with their purchasing due to all the unknowns around the U.S. tariffs.

Weekly QuizApr 24, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
LIM-401 2024 National Jeweler Supplier Bulletin- iD100 Web and Eblast FINAL (1).jpg
Supplier BulletinApr 24, 2025
Protect Your Customers and Your Business

Sponsored by the Gemological Institute of America

Wolf CEO Simon Wolf
EditorsApr 24, 2025
Q&A: Wolf’s CEO Talks U.S. Expansion

Simon Wolf shares why the time was right to open a new office here, what he looks for in a retail partner, and why he loves U.S. consumers.

gia1d100 btyb.jpg
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your Business

The risk of laboratory-grown diamonds being falsely presented as natural diamonds presents a very significant danger to consumer trust.

Iowa jeweler Herman Ginsberg
IndependentsApr 24, 2025
Longtime Iowa Jeweler Herman Ginsberg Dies at 99

A third-generation jeweler, Ginsberg worked at his family’s store, Ginsberg Jewelers, from 1948 until his retirement in 2019.

Charles & Colvard moissanite ring
FinancialsApr 24, 2025
Charles & Colvard Delisted From Nasdaq Due to Noncompliance

The company failed to file its quarterly reports in a timely manner.

Young Diamantaires
SourcingApr 24, 2025
Young Diamantaires Transition to Nonprofit

The organization also announced its board of directors.

Mined + Found "Hope" Matchbox Locket
TrendsApr 24, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: So Charming

Charms may be tiny but with their small size comes endless layering possibilities, from bracelets to necklaces and earrings.

Bulgari’s expanded factory in Valenza, Italy
MajorsApr 23, 2025
Bulgari Doubles Size of Jewelry Factory in Italy

Located in Valenza, the now 355,000-square-foot facility includes a new jewelry school that’s open to the public, Scuola Bulgari.

Jason McNary accepting FGI Fine Jewelry Rising Star award for Paola Sasplugas
Events & AwardsApr 23, 2025
PDPaola Creative Director Wins FGI’s ‘Rising Star’ Award

Paola Sasplugas, co-founder of the Barcelona-based jewelry brand, received the Fine Jewelry Award.

1999 Cosmograph Daytona, Ref.16516
AuctionsApr 23, 2025
Rare Custom Rolex Daytona Heads to Auction

A platinum Zenith-powered Daytona commissioned in the late ‘90s will headline Sotheby’s Important Watches sale in Geneva next month.

Carmelo Anthony and Jaylen Brown David Yurman campaign
MajorsApr 23, 2025
David Yurman’s New Campaign Stars Carmelo Anthony, Jaylen Brown

The basketball stars wear men’s jewelry from the “Curb Chain” collection.

Woman wearing Zales jewelry
MajorsApr 22, 2025
Zales’ Rebrand Takes Playful Approach to Fine Jewelry

The Signet Jewelers-owned retailer wants to encourage younger shoppers to wear fine jewelry every day, not just on special occasions.

JAR Apricot Blossom bracelet
AuctionsApr 22, 2025
Christie’s to Auction JAR Jewelry Collection

The 21 pieces, all from a private collector, will be offered at its Magnificent Jewels auction next month.

National Jeweler columnist Lilian Raji
ColumnistsApr 22, 2025
The PR Adviser: Building Buzz Through Word of Mouth

Lilian Raji answers a question from a reader who is looking to grow her jewelry business but has a limited marketing budget.

Avi Levy
GradingApr 22, 2025
Avi Levy Is GCAL By Sarine’s New Chief Growth Officer

GCAL by Sarine created the new role to sharpen the company’s focus on strategic partnerships and scalable expansion.

Scottsdale Fine Jewelers store exterior
IndependentsApr 22, 2025
Brinker’s Jewelers Acquires Fellow Independent

The Indiana jeweler has acquired Scottsdale Fine Jewelers in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Cartier Exhibition Installation at Victoria & Albert Museum
Events & AwardsApr 21, 2025
An Exhibition Exploring the History of Cartier Is Now on Display

“Cartier: Design, Craft, and Legacy” opened earlier this month at the Victoria and Albert Museum in London.

Bill and Birdie Levine of Van Cott Jewelers
IndependentsApr 21, 2025
New York Jeweler to Close After 111 Years

Van Cott Jewelers in Vestal, New York, is hosting a going-out-of-business sale.

IJO Director Samantha Larson
IndependentsApr 21, 2025
IJO Names New Director of Vendor Relations, Merchandise Strategy

Industry veteran Samantha Larson has held leadership roles at Borsheims, McTeigue & McClelland, Stuller, and Long’s Jewelers.

Events & AwardsApr 21, 2025
Jewelers of Louisiana, Mississippi Jewelers Association to Co-Host Convention

The two organizations will hold the educational event together this fall in Mississippi.

Daymond John
Events & AwardsApr 18, 2025
Daymond John to Give Keynote at JCK Las Vegas

The entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.

Dukachi Easter Bread Pendant
CollectionsApr 18, 2025
Piece of the Week: Dukachi’s ‘Easter Bread’ Pendant

The Ukrainian brand’s new pendant is modeled after a traditional paska, a pastry often baked for Easter in Eastern European cultures.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy