Events & AwardsMay 27, 2026
5 Security Tips for Las Vegas Jewelry Market Week 2026This year, it’s what could happen outside of show hours that worries JSA Executive Vice President Scott Guginsky.
SurveysOct 08, 2015
NRF predicts 4 percent increase in holiday sales
The National Retail Federation estimates that retail sales in the months of November and December will reach $630.5 billion this year.
Washington--The National Retail Federation said Thursday that despite a sluggish and disappointing first half, it still expects retail sales in November and December to increase 4 percent year-over-year to $630.5 billion.
If the NRF’s prediction comes true, it will put this holiday season on par with 2014, when November-December sales also were up 4 percent. In addition, it will make year-over-year sales increases for both years higher than the 10-year average of 3 percent, the NRF said.
Holiday sales this year are expected to represent approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion.
The NRF also is predicting that online sales will increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.
While the holiday season is looking optimistic for retailers, the organization noted that consumers will continue to be mindful of their spending and that it expects families to spend “prudently and deliberately, though still less constrained than what we saw even two years ago.”
Even with economic indicators improving in many areas, Americans still remain torn between their desire and their ability to spend. Consumers continue to have the economy on their minds, which helps explain the complex retail spending environment right now, the NRF said.
Disruptions from another potential government shutdown in mid-December, slower job creation and income growth also are a few key factors that will be impacting shoppers’ spending in November and December.
RELATED CONTENT: Study: Consumers to spend more this holiday season
“While confidence data is encouraging, slower job growth in 2015, deflationary retail prices and the mix of consumer spending somewhat shifting toward big-ticket items and services, as well as the wild card in our government spending debates, will all contribute to the slower growth rate of sales expected for the holiday season,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “All said, there’s no reason to doubt that we will see solid retail sales growth in the final two months of the year.”
In addition to its 2015 holiday sales prediction, the NRF also said Thursday that retailers are expected to hire between 700,000 and 750,000 seasonal workers for the holidays, in line with last year’s 714,000 new positions.
More on Surveys
The Latest
ColumnistsMay 27, 2026
What Jewelers Can Learn From Luxury Fashion’s Digital PlaybookHigh-end fashion houses know how to emotionally connect with customers online. Retail jewelers should take note, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
Events & AwardsMay 27, 2026
Couture’s ‘The Iridescence’ Will Showcase 7 Emerging Jewelry DesignersThe designers are the third cohort of mentees from the show’s Belonging @ Couture mentorship program.
Brought to you by
All Eyes on Gold Prices. Alternatives to Look For. And What to BEWARE of in VegasAs gold prices rise, today’s retailers are looking for alternatives at prices that will appeal to wider audiences.
ColumnistsMay 26, 2026
The Key Mindset for Better Trade Show BuyingBuying discipline at trade shows starts with clarity about your inventory levels, Smith writes.
Weekly QuizMay 21, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsMay 26, 2026
12 JCK Talks Sessions to Add to Your Las Vegas ScheduleThe trade show’s education series returns, with sessions on retail trends, AI, watches, marketing, corporate responsibility, and more.
Events & AwardsMay 26, 2026
CBG Brings Its Curated Designer Project to Las Vegas ShowThe Curated Designer Project has expanded to highlight eight independent jewelry designers during CBG’s Las Vegas show.
Brought to you by
How Modern Training Is Becoming a Competitive Advantage for Jewelry RetailersWith the trade and customer trust in mind, GIA® developed NextGem™ – on-demand training designed specifically for retail.
TrendsMay 26, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: A Cooldown Is ComingBring a cool tone to your summer jewelry with these white metal pieces.
Events & AwardsMay 22, 2026
Instore Buys JA New York ShowThe deal closed this week, which means Instore will produce the JA NY show slated to take place this fall.
FinancialsMay 22, 2026
Richemont’s Jewelry Brands Lead the Charge in Q4The company’s jewelry sales were up in Q4 and the fiscal year, with Richemont raising prices in part because of the cost of gold.
CollectionsMay 22, 2026
Leigh Maxwell Celebrates 5 Years at Couture With ‘Bauble’ CollectionThe “Bauble” capsule collection of colorful one-of-a-kinds includes our Piece of the Week, the “Bauble” earrings, featuring rose zircon.
MajorsMay 22, 2026
Stuller’s New Packaging, Display Catalog Is Out The updated catalog has a newly dedicated section for gift wrapping.
PodcastsMay 21, 2026
Episode 5: Sotheby’s Frank Everett Puts the Auction Market in PerspectiveEverett covers colored stones’ surging popularity, the mellow return of the “Mellon Blue,” and his “The Devil Wears Prada” doppelgänger.
IndependentsMay 21, 2026
Springer’s Jewelers’ New Flagship Will Serve Next-Gen Luxury ShoppersFourth-generation CEO Lilly Mullen wants to emphasize experience, connection, and personalized service.
Events & AwardsMay 21, 2026
JA Announces Nina Pugliese Memorial ScholarshipThe new award, created in partnership with Henne Jewelers, honors the late designer’s legacy through supporting jewelry education.
SourcingMay 21, 2026
Botswana, Angola Join WFDBThe addition of the diamond-producing countries as nation affiliated members broadens the federation’s global representation, WFDB said.
CrimeMay 20, 2026
NYPD Warns of Jewelry Swap Scams Targeting SeniorsThe NYPD is warning elderly New Yorkers to keep their jewelry hidden when walking outside to avoid being a target.
IndependentsMay 20, 2026
Adornment & Theory’s New Store Feels Like Home Designer Viviana Langhoff has realized her dream of owning a space for her Chicago jewelry store that looks and feels like her brand.
Events & AwardsMay 20, 2026
Here Is Couture’s 2026 Education Lineup The sessions will run from Friday, May 29, to Sunday, May 31, with one being a live taping of an episode of Couture’s podcast.
Lab-GrownMay 20, 2026
Savannah Friedkin Jewelry Names New CEOFormer Stephanie Gottlieb Fine Jewelry executive Morgan P. Richardson is joining the lab-grown diamond jewelry brand.
WatchesMay 19, 2026
Here’s the AP x Swatch Pocket Watch That Caused PandemoniumThe $400 pocket watch is a blend of Audemars Piguet’s iconic eight-sided Royal Oak and Swatch’s unserious Pop watches from the ‘80s.
CollectionsMay 19, 2026
Chris Ploof’s New Collection Makes an Ancient Metal ModernWith gold prices on the rise, the “Modern Electrum” collection uses an alternative, non-tarnishing metal alloy composed of gold and silver.
IndependentsMay 19, 2026
Ellen and Michael Fruchtman Retire, Sell Marketing Agency Fruchtman Marketing has new owners, Erin Moyer-Carballea and Manuel Carballea, and will relocate to Miami.
ColumnistsMay 19, 2026
Peter Smith: The (Mostly) Immutable Sales TruthsIn a column for the 2026 State of the Majors issue, Smith lists 10 time-tested principles about sales that still ring true.
ColumnistsMay 18, 2026
Edahn Golan: What a K-Shaped Economy Means for Fine JewelryIn a column for the 2026 State of the Majors issue, Golan spells out how the growing economic divide in the U.S. is reshaping the market.
CollectionsMay 18, 2026
Foundrae’s New Collection Taps Into JoyThe “Limitless Expansion of Joy and Hope” collection evokes summer through colored gemstones and motifs of butterflies and florals.
