ColumnistsAug 23, 2022
The Smart Lab: How To Plan An Effective E-Newsletter StrategyColumnistsSep 14, 2022
On Data: Retailing in a Recession
Current jewelry sales trends portend tougher days ahead. Sherry Smith shares six things retailers can do to make sure they are ready.
Sherry Smith is director of business development for data and consulting company The Edge Retail Academy. She can be reached at sherry@edgeretailacademy.com.
In the article “Navigating inflation in retail: Six actions for retailers,” McKinsey & Company states, “Retailers are facing the possibility of persistent inflation—but they can meet that challenge in ways that streamline operations, retain customers, and drive profitable growth.”
Despite the National Retail Federation’s decision to stick with their original projection of 6-8 percent growth in retail sales for 2022, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in today’s economy.
If there is, in fact, growth, we know it will not apply equally across all retail sectors. This is all the more likely for the jewelry business, given the record-setting year in 2021.
The indicators of tougher days ahead can be seen in the numbers.
The last few months have seen a decline in units sold and, for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, a slight decline in gross sales despite the price increases that helped prop up gross sales in the earlier months of the year.
Nonetheless, there are concrete actions retailers can address to help navigate potentially choppy waters in the coming months.
Here are six areas we would suggest you should examine to maximize returns.
1. Expect more from your inventory.
Inventory is one of your biggest costs, and you might potentially see a slowdown in turn during a recession. However, it is precisely at times like these that you should measure your inventory turn and hold yourself to the highest possible standard.
Converting inventory into cash can be a real salvation in more challenging economic times, and there are two tenets that should not be compromised if you are to do so effectively.
The first is that you should never be out of stock on your best-selling products. They are the lifeblood of your business, even as some retailers become bored with products often not deemed to be “sexy enough.”
Sexy is a profitable business and a well-managed inventory.
The second area is to not be shy about aggressively moving out slow and/or discontinued products or brands. This is not the time to be tentative in liquidating slow-moving products or struggling to let go of buying mistakes of the past. There’s a reason it didn’t sell, so move it on.
A better stock turn creates positive cash flow, and no business was ever less well-off for being profitable.
2. Have a slush fund.
We strongly recommend retailers have a business savings or emergency account. You should have enough cash on hand to cover at least six months’ worth of operating costs, including payroll.
If you don’t have a slush fund, start one today by putting a percentage of every deposit into your business savings account. You’ll be surprised how quickly this can become an ingrained habit.
Although retailers will often say they can’t afford to do this, I would strongly argue that you can’t afford not to do this.
Related stories will be right here …
Despite the National Retail Federation’s decision to stick with their original projection of 6-8 percent growth in retail sales for 2022, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in today’s economy.
If there is, in fact, growth, we know it will not apply equally across all retail sectors. This is all the more likely for the jewelry business, given the record-setting year in 2021.
The indicators of tougher days ahead can be seen in the numbers.
The last few months have seen a decline in units sold and, for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, a slight decline in gross sales despite the price increases that helped prop up gross sales in the earlier months of the year.
Nonetheless, there are concrete actions retailers can address to help navigate potentially choppy waters in the coming months.
Here are six areas we would suggest you should examine to maximize returns.
1. Expect more from your inventory.
Inventory is one of your biggest costs, and you might potentially see a slowdown in turn during a recession. However, it is precisely at times like these that you should measure your inventory turn and hold yourself to the highest possible standard.
Converting inventory into cash can be a real salvation in more challenging economic times, and there are two tenets that should not be compromised if you are to do so effectively.
The first is that you should never be out of stock on your best-selling products. They are the lifeblood of your business, even as some retailers become bored with products often not deemed to be “sexy enough.”
Sexy is a profitable business and a well-managed inventory.
The second area is to not be shy about aggressively moving out slow and/or discontinued products or brands. This is not the time to be tentative in liquidating slow-moving products or struggling to let go of buying mistakes of the past. There’s a reason it didn’t sell, so move it on.
A better stock turn creates positive cash flow, and no business was ever less well-off for being profitable.
2. Have a slush fund.
We strongly recommend retailers have a business savings or emergency account. You should have enough cash on hand to cover at least six months’ worth of operating costs, including payroll.
If you don’t have a slush fund, start one today by putting a percentage of every deposit into your business savings account. You’ll be surprised how quickly this can become an ingrained habit.
Although retailers will often say they can’t afford to do this, I would strongly argue that you can’t afford not to do this.
3. Always operate within your budget.
Retail owners understand more than most just how challenging it is to create an annual budget.
Nonetheless, it is a vital tool that should factor in historical sales, your marketing calendar, your fixed and variable costs, and gross margins.
Also, you will want to make sure you factor in anomalies such as a one-off large sale from the previous year, an inventory reduction sale that will not be repeated, business interruptions due to remodeling within your store, or external construction projects that might negatively impact your business.
Your annual budget goes hand in hand with a cash flow projection. You need to plan for the months that have a negative cash flow by utilizing a line of credit, and/or proactively and respectfully negotiate for longer payment terms from your vendors.
Following a budget can present opportunities to identify and cut costs.
4. Don’t stop advertising.
When sales decline, there is often a knee-jerk reaction to slash marketing spend.
However, this can be a great opportunity to build your brand awareness, and at a more favorable price, when your competitors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the storm to pass.
Be sure to adjust your marketing efforts to meet current consumer habits. Today’s consumers shop across multiple channels, so you need to be more strategic with your targeted messages to stay top of mind.
Maintain regularly scheduled communications such as email, social media, texts, and more traditional vehicles such as billboards (if they work in your market) and a structured system of phone outreach.
Most importantly, you must track your marketing results; don’t fall for the fallacy that marketing results cannot be measured.
You should measure the key performance indicators (KPIs) of your marketing, and you should only continue with the campaigns that are achieving the desired results.
If there are any flippant takeaways from a marketing perspective it is this: no marketing or lousy marketing efforts will deliver lousy results.
5. Be customer-centric.
Loyal customers are the lifeline of a retailer’s business, but the relationships must be nurtured.
Customers aren’t always excited about shopping around. They would prefer to go to retailers they know, trust, and have a relationship with, especially in times of uncertainty.
Existing customers also purchase more often and typically spend more per transaction than new customers. However, you must have a clienteling strategy in place because sometimes, all customers need is a little nudge.
For those retailers who don’t have a loyalty or rewards program, there’s no better time to introduce one than during an economic downturn.
There are good systems available so make sure to talk to your peers, mentors, or business advisers for help.
6. Assess your workforce needs.
It is imperative that you have top talent in the right positions at all times, but never more so than when business is more challenging.
While cross-training can benefit many businesses, it doesn’t always serve the retail store or your customers well.
For example, having administrative/support staff help on the floor with customer overflow is an OK stop-gap measure, but isn’t necessarily in the best interest of your business. Those interactions typically result in a close rate that is below reasonable expectations and an average ticket that will hurt your business.
When foot traffic is down, you must put your customers in front of your strongest salespeople to ensure the customers’ needs and wants are met in a meaningful way that is good for your customers and good for your business.
Ultimately, there is no higher goal in running a retail store.
Loyal customers are the lifeline of a retailer’s business, but the relationships must be nurtured.
Customers aren’t always excited about shopping around. They would prefer to go to retailers they know, trust, and have a relationship with, especially in times of uncertainty.
Existing customers also purchase more often and typically spend more per transaction than new customers. However, you must have a clienteling strategy in place because sometimes, all customers need is a little nudge.
For those retailers who don’t have a loyalty or rewards program, there’s no better time to introduce one than during an economic downturn.
There are good systems available so make sure to talk to your peers, mentors, or business advisers for help.
6. Assess your workforce needs.
It is imperative that you have top talent in the right positions at all times, but never more so than when business is more challenging.
While cross-training can benefit many businesses, it doesn’t always serve the retail store or your customers well.
For example, having administrative/support staff help on the floor with customer overflow is an OK stop-gap measure, but isn’t necessarily in the best interest of your business. Those interactions typically result in a close rate that is below reasonable expectations and an average ticket that will hurt your business.
When foot traffic is down, you must put your customers in front of your strongest salespeople to ensure the customers’ needs and wants are met in a meaningful way that is good for your customers and good for your business.
Ultimately, there is no higher goal in running a retail store.
More on Columnists
The Latest
CrimeMay 08, 2025
Former NYC Jewelry Store Employee Arrested in 2017 Choking Death of Boss Michel Desalles allegedly murdered Omid Gholian inside World of Gold N Diamond using zip ties and then fled the country.
EditorsMay 08, 2025
5 ‘Superfine’ Met Gala Jewelry MomentsAssociate Editor Lauren McLemore shares her favorite looks from a night of style inspired by Black dandyism.
Supplier BulletinMay 08, 2025
Instappraise Introduces Game-Changing Trifold Appraisal FormatSponsored by Instappraise
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
FinancialsMay 08, 2025
Brilliant Earth Notes an Uptick in Engagement Ring Sales in Q1CEO Beth Gerstein discussed the company’s bridal bestsellers, the potential impact of tariffs, and the rising price of gold.
Weekly QuizMay 08, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Margot McKinney Lands in the U.S. With New BoutiqueThe brand’s first independent location outside of Australia has opened in Beverly Hills, California.
IndependentsMay 08, 2025
Verragio Announces New Regional Sales ManagerCathy Marsh will lead the jewelry company’s efforts in the upper Midwest and western United States.
Brought to you by
Watch: The Winston Red: GIA Examines the Smithsonian’s Newest AdditionSupplier Spotlight Sponsored by GIA
FinancialsMay 07, 2025
Pandora Posts Strong Q1, Plans for TariffsThe company has multiple strategies for dealing with tariffs, though its CEO said moving manufacturing to the U.S. is not one of them.
SourcingMay 07, 2025
Gemfields Says Emerald Sales Improved in Latest AuctionIts commercial-quality emerald sale held last month totaled more than $16 million, up from about $11 million in September 2024.
TechnologyMay 07, 2025
Punchmark’s Latest Podcast Features a Very Special Guest National Jeweler Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff joined Michael Burpoe to talk tariffs, consumer confidence, and the sky-high price of gold.
AuctionsMay 06, 2025
Harwell Godfrey Reimagines 10-Carat Blue Diamond for Met Gala-Ready BroochDesigner Lauren Harwell Godfrey made the piece as an homage to the 2025 gala’s theme, “Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.”
Events & AwardsMay 06, 2025
Here’s Who Made Jewelers of America’s New ‘20 Under 40’ ListExpanded this year to include suppliers, JA’s 2025 list honors 40 up-and-coming professionals in the jewelry industry.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Sissy's Log Cabin Opens New StoreLocated in Fort Smith, it’s the Mid-South jeweler’s first store in Northwest Arkansas.
IndependentsMay 06, 2025
Gunderson’s Jewelers to Be Featured on ‘World’s Greatest’ TV SeriesThe episode about the family-owned jeweler will premiere May 17.
IndependentsMay 05, 2025
Zadok Jewelers Opens Store in AustinThe Houston-based jeweler’s new 11,000-square-foot showroom will include a Rolex boutique.
AuctionsMay 05, 2025
Nancy Astor’s Cartier Tiara Heads to AuctionThe turquoise and diamond tiara hasn’t been on the market since it was purchased by Lord Astor in 1930.
SourcingMay 05, 2025
Crater of Diamonds Yields 4-Carat Brown Diamond“The Duke Diamond” is the largest diamond registered at the Arkansas park so far this year.
TrendsMay 02, 2025
Ring Concierge, Kraft Partner on Mother’s Day Macaroni Necklace The childhood craft of making dried pasta necklaces for Mother’s Day is all grown up as the 14-karat gold “Forever Macaroni” necklace.
CollectionsMay 02, 2025
Piece of the Week: Angely Martinez’s Emerald Promise RingSet with May’s birthstone and featuring an earthworm, this ring is a perfect celebration of spring.
MajorsMay 02, 2025
Stuller’s New Bridal Catalog Is Here“Bridal 2025–2026” includes popular styles and a dedicated section for quick pricing references of lab-grown diamond bridal jewelry.
SourcingMay 01, 2025
Tariffs & Colored Gemstones: Relying on Stock, Considering the Ripple EffectThough currently paused, high tariffs threaten many countries where gemstones are mined. Dealers are taking measures now to prepare.
MajorsMay 01, 2025
Peek Inside David Yurman’s New Miami Flagship StoreLocated in Miami’s Design District, the 4,000-square-foot store is an homage to David and Sybil Yurman’s artistic roots.
TrendsMay 01, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: 20 Pieces of Emerald Jewelry for MayMay babies are lucky indeed, born in a month awash with fresh colors and celebrated with one of the most coveted colored gemstones.
MajorsMay 01, 2025
Jewelers of America Opens Applications for 2025 ScholarshipsThe deadline to apply for the Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship is June 12.
SurveysApr 30, 2025
Consumer Confidence Hits Pandemic-Level Low Amid Tariff ConcernsWhat’s really worrying U.S. consumers isn’t the present situation; it’s what the economy is going to look like six months from now.
Events & AwardsApr 30, 2025
Instore Show Debuts New Name, Look, and FocusNow called The Instore Jewelry Show, it will include holiday-focused education, interactive workshops, and a window display contest.
