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The National Retail Federation is predicting that retail industry sales will grow 3.1 percent this year as wages rise and unemployment continues to decline.
Washington--The National Retail Federation is predicting that retail industry sales, excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, will grow 3.1 percent this year as wages rise and unemployment continues to decrease.
This is higher than the 10-year average of 2.7 percent, it said.
The NRF also noted that it expects non-store (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales) sales in 2016 to grow between 6 and 9 percent, and for economic growth overall to likely be in the range of 1.9 to 2.4 percent this year.
“Wage stagnation is easing, jobs are being created and consumer confidence remains steady, so despite the headwinds our economy faces from international developments, particularly in China, we think 2016 will be favorable for growth in the retail industry.”--Matthew Shay, National Retail FederationAdditionally, the NRF said that employment gains should average about 190,000 jobs a month, a pace it said is down from 2015 but consistent with the labor market. By year’s end, NRF said it expects unemployment to be down to 4.6 percent.
More spending from consumers also is expected, though the NRF said that will come more from the growth in jobs than increased wages.
“Wage stagnation is easing, jobs are being created and consumer confidence remains steady, so despite the headwinds our economy faces from international developments, particularly in China, we think 2016 will be favorable for growth in the retail industry,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz added that despite volatility in the economy in 2015, unemployment levels continued to decrease while wages went up and GDP increased by more than 2 percent. Additionally, lower gas prices are leaving consumers with more discretionary income to save, pay down debt and spend on travel, eating out and the like.
Retailers also have benefited, he said, as they continue to find ways to compete and succeed in a cost-conscious environment.
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