Supplier BulletinAug 13, 2026
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSponsored by American Gem Trade Association
SurveysFeb 27, 2020
Retail Sales Could Grow As Much As 4% in 2020, NRF Says
A high level of consumer confidence and gains in household income are signs of a strong year ahead, the National Retail Federation said.
Online sales are expected to grow as much as 15 percent to $894 billion in 2020, according to the National Retail Federation’s retail forecast.
Washington—In the face of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, ongoing trade negotiations and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the National Retail Federation is still predicting a strong year for retailers.
Retail sales are expected to climb by up to 4 percent in 2020, totaling more than $3.9 trillion, according to the NRF’s recent forecast.
Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 12 and 15 percent to between $870.6 billion and $893.9 billion.
“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release announcing the forecast.
Shay pointed to gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence as signs of a strong year ahead.
While outside factors are “wild cards,” the underlying economic fundamentals are strong, he added.
“Their consumptions habits are based on job security and their level of confidence that they've got a job, that those around them have jobs,” Shay said on a call Wednesday morning discussing the results.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.”
Retailers specializing in furniture and home products in particular are expected to see a boost, as low interest rates translate to home buying and mortgage refinancing, Kleinhenz noted.
Though disposable income has moderated, inflation has been low, he added, giving consumers the confidence to spend using their credit cards or savings.
Corporate CEOs, however, likely won’t share that confidence, Kleinhenz said, as trade negotiations loom large.
In December, President Donald Trump reached a “phase one” trade agreement with China, which eased trade tensions but did not lead to a comprehensive agreement. Further progress on the agreement could give the economy a boost and contribute to higher corporate spending and hiring, the NRF said.
However, should negotiations turn sour, a trade war escalation would discourage corporate investments, Kleinhenz said.
The U.S. presidential election in November also has the potential to impact retail sales. In an election year, politics tend to dominate the news cycle, making it more difficult for retailers to get media time, Kleinhenz said on the NRF’s call.
As for the coronavirus, the retail forecast assumes it does not become a global pandemic.
The forecast notes that business confidence and retail sales
Retail sales are expected to climb by up to 4 percent in 2020, totaling more than $3.9 trillion, according to the NRF’s recent forecast.
Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 12 and 15 percent to between $870.6 billion and $893.9 billion.
“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release announcing the forecast.
Shay pointed to gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence as signs of a strong year ahead.
While outside factors are “wild cards,” the underlying economic fundamentals are strong, he added.
“Their consumptions habits are based on job security and their level of confidence that they've got a job, that those around them have jobs,” Shay said on a call Wednesday morning discussing the results.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.”
Retailers specializing in furniture and home products in particular are expected to see a boost, as low interest rates translate to home buying and mortgage refinancing, Kleinhenz noted.
Though disposable income has moderated, inflation has been low, he added, giving consumers the confidence to spend using their credit cards or savings.
Corporate CEOs, however, likely won’t share that confidence, Kleinhenz said, as trade negotiations loom large.
In December, President Donald Trump reached a “phase one” trade agreement with China, which eased trade tensions but did not lead to a comprehensive agreement. Further progress on the agreement could give the economy a boost and contribute to higher corporate spending and hiring, the NRF said.
However, should negotiations turn sour, a trade war escalation would discourage corporate investments, Kleinhenz said.
The U.S. presidential election in November also has the potential to impact retail sales. In an election year, politics tend to dominate the news cycle, making it more difficult for retailers to get media time, Kleinhenz said on the NRF’s call.
As for the coronavirus, the retail forecast assumes it does not become a global pandemic.
The forecast notes that business confidence and retail sales
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
could feel the impact if factory shutdowns in China continue, especially if the delivery of merchandise for the holiday season is affected.
Looking at the overall economy, the NRF expects to see between 150,000 and 170,000 jobs added every month this year, compared with an average of 175,000 last year.
The unemployment rate, which is currently at 3.6 percent, is expected to stay around 3.5 percent.
Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.9 percent, down from preliminary estimates of 2.3 percent in 2019.
Looking back to 2019, preliminary results show retail sales were up 3.7 percent year-over-year to $3.79 trillion, falling just short of the NRF’s forecast of 3.8 percent growth.
Looking at the overall economy, the NRF expects to see between 150,000 and 170,000 jobs added every month this year, compared with an average of 175,000 last year.
The unemployment rate, which is currently at 3.6 percent, is expected to stay around 3.5 percent.
Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.9 percent, down from preliminary estimates of 2.3 percent in 2019.
Looking back to 2019, preliminary results show retail sales were up 3.7 percent year-over-year to $3.79 trillion, falling just short of the NRF’s forecast of 3.8 percent growth.
More on Surveys
The Latest
FinancialsAug 13, 2026
Pandora’s ‘Talisman’ Collection Shines, Lab-Grown Diamond Sales FallIn the United States, second-quarter sales were flat amid soft consumer sentiment and lower in-store traffic.
AuctionsAug 13, 2026
This Gold Cadbury ‘Conundrum’ Egg Set a World Auction RecordThe 22-karat gold egg, sold at Batemans Auctioneers in the U.K., was part of a 1980s treasure hunt ad campaign for Cadbury Creme Eggs.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
SourcingAug 13, 2026
2,488-Carat Diamond, Largest Found in Botswana, Has a New Owner Lucara Diamond Corp., which recovered the “Motswedi” diamond from the Karowe mine, sold the stone for an undisclosed amount.
Weekly QuizAug 07, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsAug 13, 2026
John Hardy Infuses ‘Icon,’ ‘Heishi’ Collections with ColorThe expanded collections now feature hand-cut gemstones like topaz, tanzanite, chrysoprase, chalcedony, smoky quartz, and fire opal.
Lab-GrownAug 13, 2026
Jean Dousset Opens Third StoreThe lab-grown diamond jewelry brand’s newest boutique is in Westfield Valley Fair in Santa Clara, California.
Brought to you by
Wedding Band Trends 2026: Personalization Takes Center StageColored gemstones, artisan finishes, mixed metals, and meaningful details are shaping demand in bridal jewelry.
SourcingAug 12, 2026
Eshed-Gemstar on the Painstaking Process of Cutting ‘The Legacy Emerald’The gemstone supplier and manufacturer acquired the remarkable 104-gram Zambian emerald at Gemfields’ auction in May.
CrimeAug 12, 2026
Elderly NYC Woman Targeted in Jewelry Swap SchemeTwo suspects offered to trade the woman a “winning” lottery ticket for her jewelry.
SourcingAug 12, 2026
Another Diamond Mine Poised to CloseFinsch has been in business rescue since May, and owner Petra Diamonds said it sees no viable path forward for the mine.
CrimeAug 12, 2026
Jewelry Store Employee Gets 20 Years to Life in Choking Death of BossMichel Patrick DeSalles was sentenced after pleading guilty to the 2017 murder of Omid Gholian, who owned a jewelry store in Manhattan.
MajorsAug 12, 2026
Frederick Goldman Names New SVP of SalesLongtime industry executive Beth Miller has taken on the role.
AuctionsAug 11, 2026
Verdura Unicorn Brooch With Royal Connection Up for Auction The brooch was owned by Virginia Fortune Ryan Ogilvy, who served as a lady of the bedchamber to Queen Elizabeth II for nearly 50 years.
MajorsAug 11, 2026
Signet Jewelers Selects Mattel Exec to Lead Zales, BanterJamie Cygielman will take on the role on Aug. 24.
IndependentsAug 11, 2026
Polly’s Fine Jewelry Co-Owner Richard Moore Dies at 69Moore, Polly’s husband, is remembered as a family man with an easygoing spirit and a love for sports and the outdoors.
ColumnistsAug 11, 2026
Creative Connecting: How to Sell Colored Gemstones to Gen ZDuvall O’Steen and Jen Cullen Williams share the best ways to display, present, and explain colored gemstones to younger customers.
Events & AwardsAug 11, 2026
NAJA Announces Lineup For 2026 Fall Virtual ConferenceThe mid-year conference for jewelry and watch appraisers will take place Sept. 5-6 on Zoom.
TechnologyAug 10, 2026
Colorado Jeweler Launches Customization Tool He Built HimselfHonest Hands Ring Co. Founder Benjamin Bosworth shared his thoughts on jewelry technology and why AI can never replace the human element.
MajorsAug 10, 2026
QVC Exits Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, Names New Interim CEOQVC Group President and CEO David Rawlinson is temporarily being replaced by a familiar face, former QVC CEO Mike George.
CollectionsAug 10, 2026
State Property Puts a Ripple in the ‘The Voyager’ CollectionThe brand also added two one-of-a-kind brown diamond pieces to the “Sanssouci” series of its “Gardens” collection.
MajorsAug 10, 2026
And IJO’s 2026 Vendor of the Year Is … Ostbye took home top vendor honors at the Independent Jewelers Organization’s show, held last month in Kentucky.
Supplier BulletinAug 07, 2026
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsSponsored by Stratus Estate Buyers
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Retail Veteran Pam Cloud Appointed President of Blue NileCloud, who will officially join Blue Nile on Monday, spent 26 years at Tiffany & Co. and founded jewelry brand Roseate.
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Pandora Appoints Paulo Garcia as New CFO Garcia will take over from the company’s current CFO, Anders Boyer, who is retiring at the end of November.
MajorsAug 07, 2026
Etsy to Lay Off 12% of WorkforceEtsy CEO Kruti Patel Goyal explained why the company is letting go more than 200 employees as its performance improves.
TrendsAug 07, 2026
Look Ahead with Syna’s Binoculars PendantThe “Star Gazer” pendant, our Piece of the Week, is Syna’s tribute to curiosity and the discovery of something new.
