Policies & IssuesApr 28, 2026
Tariff Refunds: How to File, What to Expect Importers can submit claims now to receive money back for the IEEPA tariffs they’ve paid, with refunds expected to take up to 90 days.
SurveysFeb 27, 2020
Retail Sales Could Grow As Much As 4% in 2020, NRF Says
A high level of consumer confidence and gains in household income are signs of a strong year ahead, the National Retail Federation said.
Online sales are expected to grow as much as 15 percent to $894 billion in 2020, according to the National Retail Federation’s retail forecast.
Washington—In the face of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, ongoing trade negotiations and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the National Retail Federation is still predicting a strong year for retailers.
Retail sales are expected to climb by up to 4 percent in 2020, totaling more than $3.9 trillion, according to the NRF’s recent forecast.
Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 12 and 15 percent to between $870.6 billion and $893.9 billion.
“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release announcing the forecast.
Shay pointed to gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence as signs of a strong year ahead.
While outside factors are “wild cards,” the underlying economic fundamentals are strong, he added.
“Their consumptions habits are based on job security and their level of confidence that they've got a job, that those around them have jobs,” Shay said on a call Wednesday morning discussing the results.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.”
Retailers specializing in furniture and home products in particular are expected to see a boost, as low interest rates translate to home buying and mortgage refinancing, Kleinhenz noted.
Though disposable income has moderated, inflation has been low, he added, giving consumers the confidence to spend using their credit cards or savings.
Corporate CEOs, however, likely won’t share that confidence, Kleinhenz said, as trade negotiations loom large.
In December, President Donald Trump reached a “phase one” trade agreement with China, which eased trade tensions but did not lead to a comprehensive agreement. Further progress on the agreement could give the economy a boost and contribute to higher corporate spending and hiring, the NRF said.
However, should negotiations turn sour, a trade war escalation would discourage corporate investments, Kleinhenz said.
The U.S. presidential election in November also has the potential to impact retail sales. In an election year, politics tend to dominate the news cycle, making it more difficult for retailers to get media time, Kleinhenz said on the NRF’s call.
As for the coronavirus, the retail forecast assumes it does not become a global pandemic.
The forecast notes that business confidence and retail sales
Retail sales are expected to climb by up to 4 percent in 2020, totaling more than $3.9 trillion, according to the NRF’s recent forecast.
Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 12 and 15 percent to between $870.6 billion and $893.9 billion.
“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release announcing the forecast.
Shay pointed to gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence as signs of a strong year ahead.
While outside factors are “wild cards,” the underlying economic fundamentals are strong, he added.
“Their consumptions habits are based on job security and their level of confidence that they've got a job, that those around them have jobs,” Shay said on a call Wednesday morning discussing the results.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.”
Retailers specializing in furniture and home products in particular are expected to see a boost, as low interest rates translate to home buying and mortgage refinancing, Kleinhenz noted.
Though disposable income has moderated, inflation has been low, he added, giving consumers the confidence to spend using their credit cards or savings.
Corporate CEOs, however, likely won’t share that confidence, Kleinhenz said, as trade negotiations loom large.
In December, President Donald Trump reached a “phase one” trade agreement with China, which eased trade tensions but did not lead to a comprehensive agreement. Further progress on the agreement could give the economy a boost and contribute to higher corporate spending and hiring, the NRF said.
However, should negotiations turn sour, a trade war escalation would discourage corporate investments, Kleinhenz said.
The U.S. presidential election in November also has the potential to impact retail sales. In an election year, politics tend to dominate the news cycle, making it more difficult for retailers to get media time, Kleinhenz said on the NRF’s call.
As for the coronavirus, the retail forecast assumes it does not become a global pandemic.
The forecast notes that business confidence and retail sales
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
could feel the impact if factory shutdowns in China continue, especially if the delivery of merchandise for the holiday season is affected.
Looking at the overall economy, the NRF expects to see between 150,000 and 170,000 jobs added every month this year, compared with an average of 175,000 last year.
The unemployment rate, which is currently at 3.6 percent, is expected to stay around 3.5 percent.
Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.9 percent, down from preliminary estimates of 2.3 percent in 2019.
Looking back to 2019, preliminary results show retail sales were up 3.7 percent year-over-year to $3.79 trillion, falling just short of the NRF’s forecast of 3.8 percent growth.
Looking at the overall economy, the NRF expects to see between 150,000 and 170,000 jobs added every month this year, compared with an average of 175,000 last year.
The unemployment rate, which is currently at 3.6 percent, is expected to stay around 3.5 percent.
Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.9 percent, down from preliminary estimates of 2.3 percent in 2019.
Looking back to 2019, preliminary results show retail sales were up 3.7 percent year-over-year to $3.79 trillion, falling just short of the NRF’s forecast of 3.8 percent growth.
More on Surveys
The Latest
IndependentsApr 28, 2026
This North Carolina Jeweler Is Passing the TorchThe owners of Gregory Jewelers in Morganton, North Carolina, are heading into retirement.
SourcingApr 28, 2026
Doug Hucker Retires From ICAThe colored gemstone industry leader is heading into retirement after four years as the association’s CEO.
Brought to you by
Discover Timeless Treasures: A Showcase of Antique Jewelry & Timepieces in Las VegasGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
SourcingApr 28, 2026
NDC Hires Tapestry Exec to Head Global Marketing Susie Dewey joins the Natural Diamond Council as its new chief marketing officer.
Weekly QuizApr 23, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
AuctionsApr 27, 2026
12 Years Later, the ‘Ocean Dream’ Diamond Resurfaces at Christie’sThe largest known fancy vivid blue-green diamond could fetch more than $12 million at its second auction appearance.
ColumnistsApr 27, 2026
Stop Treating Mother’s Day Like an AfterthoughtEmmanuel Raheb says jewelers need to start marketing early and make it easy for customers to pick a gift for mom.
Brought to you by
Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show: Showcasing the Most Collectible Merchandise from Across the GlobeGain access to the most exclusive and coveted antique pieces from trusted dealers during Las Vegas Jewelry Week.
IndependentsApr 27, 2026
Longnecker Jewelry Celebrates 30 YearsIn honor of the milestone, the Nebraska jeweler has debuted Leslie & Co., its new in-house jewelry brand.
MajorsApr 27, 2026
JBT Re-Elects Jeff Corey as Board ChairThe trade organization, which held its annual elections earlier this year, also added five new board members.
TechnologyApr 24, 2026
TwentyFour’s Digital-Age Locket Is a Virtual VaultThe “Vault” charm, our Piece of the Week, expands on the memories that can be stored in a locket by connecting to your phone.
Events & AwardsApr 24, 2026
Hamptons Jewelry Show to Return in JulyThe open-to-the-public luxury jewelry and timepiece show, in its second year, is slated for July 23-26.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Meet the Real Moms of Day’s JewelersThe jeweler’s Mother’s Day campaign highlights the women who work there—mothers, grandmothers, women who want to be mothers, and dog moms.
Supplier BulletinApr 23, 2026
JM® Shipping Solution: Smarter Shipping for High-Value GoodsSponsored by Jewelers Mutual
Lab-GrownApr 23, 2026
Charles & Colvard May Sell Assets for $1.5MThe proposed agreement follows the moissanite maker’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection filing last month.
AuctionsApr 23, 2026
John Jacob Astor IV’s Titanic Pocket Watch Fetches $1MThe Patek Philippe for Tiffany & Co. timepiece Astor brought aboard the ill-fated ship sold for double its estimate at a Freeman’s auction.
CollectionsApr 23, 2026
Adam Neeley’s High Jewelry Collection Steps Into Salvador Dalí’s GardenThe “Dalí’s Garden” collection was inspired by a surreal dream Neeley had after cooking a recipe from Salvador Dalí’s 1973 cookbook.
IndependentsApr 23, 2026
Windsor Jewelers Names New Buying DirectorNatalie Feanny has been appointed to the role.
CrimeApr 22, 2026
New Mexico Couple Pleads Guilty to Selling Fake Native American JewelryThe pair falsely claimed their jewelry was made by Navajo artists, but it was imported from Vietnam.
AuctionsApr 22, 2026
Roberta Flack’s Jewelry Is Going Up for AuctionJulien’s Auctions is selling the musician’s fine and fashion jewelry alongside her clothing, gold records, and other memorabilia.
CollectionsApr 22, 2026
British Museum Curator Pens Book on ‘The Tudor Heart’Rachel King’s book dives into the history of the pendant believed to have belonged to Henry VIII and his first wife, Katherine of Aragon.
Events & AwardsApr 22, 2026
Here’s What Sy Kessler Has on Tap for Las Vegas The company will have deals on precious metals testers as well as the latest in lab-grown diamond detection technology and security.
WatchesApr 21, 2026
Coco Chanel Enters the Game with New Watch CollectionGabrielle “Coco” Chanel is a character in the “Coco Game” collection of watches and the queen in its first haute horlogerie chessboard.
IndependentsApr 21, 2026
Meet Jewelers of America’s 2026 ‘20 Under 40’ ClassThe annual list honors rising professionals on the retail and supply sides of the jewelry industry.
CrimeApr 21, 2026
Customs Nabs 1,500 Pieces of Counterfeit Jewelry Bound for NYCSeized in Kentucky, the packages include fake Cartier, Tiffany & Co., Chanel, and Fendi jewelry.
CrimeApr 20, 2026
Queens Man Convicted in Bludgeoning Death of Pawn Shop OwnerRodolfo Lopez-Portillo faces 25 years to life in prison after being found guilty in the March 2022 beating death of Arasb Shoughi.
TrendsApr 20, 2026
Beth Bernstein, Sonia Esther Soltani Pen New Jewelry Book“Jewelry Creators: Dynamic Duos and Generational Gems” highlights the relationships among 22 influential designers, brands, and gem dealers.
