MajorsDec 16, 2025
Pandora’s New CEO Will Step Up EarlyBerta de Pablos-Barbier will replace Alexander Lacik at the start of January, two months earlier than expected.
SurveysFeb 27, 2020
Retail Sales Could Grow As Much As 4% in 2020, NRF Says
A high level of consumer confidence and gains in household income are signs of a strong year ahead, the National Retail Federation said.
Online sales are expected to grow as much as 15 percent to $894 billion in 2020, according to the National Retail Federation’s retail forecast.
Washington—In the face of uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, ongoing trade negotiations and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the National Retail Federation is still predicting a strong year for retailers.
Retail sales are expected to climb by up to 4 percent in 2020, totaling more than $3.9 trillion, according to the NRF’s recent forecast.
Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 12 and 15 percent to between $870.6 billion and $893.9 billion.
“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release announcing the forecast.
Shay pointed to gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence as signs of a strong year ahead.
While outside factors are “wild cards,” the underlying economic fundamentals are strong, he added.
“Their consumptions habits are based on job security and their level of confidence that they've got a job, that those around them have jobs,” Shay said on a call Wednesday morning discussing the results.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.”
Retailers specializing in furniture and home products in particular are expected to see a boost, as low interest rates translate to home buying and mortgage refinancing, Kleinhenz noted.
Though disposable income has moderated, inflation has been low, he added, giving consumers the confidence to spend using their credit cards or savings.
Corporate CEOs, however, likely won’t share that confidence, Kleinhenz said, as trade negotiations loom large.
In December, President Donald Trump reached a “phase one” trade agreement with China, which eased trade tensions but did not lead to a comprehensive agreement. Further progress on the agreement could give the economy a boost and contribute to higher corporate spending and hiring, the NRF said.
However, should negotiations turn sour, a trade war escalation would discourage corporate investments, Kleinhenz said.
The U.S. presidential election in November also has the potential to impact retail sales. In an election year, politics tend to dominate the news cycle, making it more difficult for retailers to get media time, Kleinhenz said on the NRF’s call.
As for the coronavirus, the retail forecast assumes it does not become a global pandemic.
The forecast notes that business confidence and retail sales
Retail sales are expected to climb by up to 4 percent in 2020, totaling more than $3.9 trillion, according to the NRF’s recent forecast.
Online sales, which are included in the total, are expected to grow between 12 and 15 percent to between $870.6 billion and $893.9 billion.
“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a press release announcing the forecast.
Shay pointed to gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence as signs of a strong year ahead.
While outside factors are “wild cards,” the underlying economic fundamentals are strong, he added.
“Their consumptions habits are based on job security and their level of confidence that they've got a job, that those around them have jobs,” Shay said on a call Wednesday morning discussing the results.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.”
Retailers specializing in furniture and home products in particular are expected to see a boost, as low interest rates translate to home buying and mortgage refinancing, Kleinhenz noted.
Though disposable income has moderated, inflation has been low, he added, giving consumers the confidence to spend using their credit cards or savings.
Corporate CEOs, however, likely won’t share that confidence, Kleinhenz said, as trade negotiations loom large.
In December, President Donald Trump reached a “phase one” trade agreement with China, which eased trade tensions but did not lead to a comprehensive agreement. Further progress on the agreement could give the economy a boost and contribute to higher corporate spending and hiring, the NRF said.
However, should negotiations turn sour, a trade war escalation would discourage corporate investments, Kleinhenz said.
The U.S. presidential election in November also has the potential to impact retail sales. In an election year, politics tend to dominate the news cycle, making it more difficult for retailers to get media time, Kleinhenz said on the NRF’s call.
As for the coronavirus, the retail forecast assumes it does not become a global pandemic.
The forecast notes that business confidence and retail sales
could feel the impact if factory shutdowns in China continue, especially if the delivery of merchandise for the holiday season is affected.
Looking at the overall economy, the NRF expects to see between 150,000 and 170,000 jobs added every month this year, compared with an average of 175,000 last year.
The unemployment rate, which is currently at 3.6 percent, is expected to stay around 3.5 percent.
Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.9 percent, down from preliminary estimates of 2.3 percent in 2019.
Looking back to 2019, preliminary results show retail sales were up 3.7 percent year-over-year to $3.79 trillion, falling just short of the NRF’s forecast of 3.8 percent growth.
Looking at the overall economy, the NRF expects to see between 150,000 and 170,000 jobs added every month this year, compared with an average of 175,000 last year.
The unemployment rate, which is currently at 3.6 percent, is expected to stay around 3.5 percent.
Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.9 percent, down from preliminary estimates of 2.3 percent in 2019.
Looking back to 2019, preliminary results show retail sales were up 3.7 percent year-over-year to $3.79 trillion, falling just short of the NRF’s forecast of 3.8 percent growth.
More on Surveys
The Latest
AuctionsDec 16, 2025
Suzanne Belperron, JAR Shine in Sotheby’s First Auctions at New HQSotheby’s held its first two jewelry sales at the Breuer building last week, and they totaled nearly $44 million.
Events & AwardsDec 16, 2025
TJS Now Accepting Scholarship Applications for 2026Winners will receive free registration and lodging for its fourth annual event in Detroit.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
ColumnistsDec 16, 2025
Beyond Unboxing: Creative Reveals to Drive Reach and EngagementHere are six ideas for making more engaging content for Instagram Reels and TikTok, courtesy of Duvall O’Steen and Jen Cullen Williams.
Weekly QuizDec 11, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsDec 16, 2025
Diamonds Do Good Names 2026 Award RecipientsThe honorees include a notable jewelry brand, an industry veteran, and an independent retailer.
CrimeDec 15, 2025
Men Receive Life Sentences in Home Invasion Murder of Jeweler Carlos Jose Hernandez and Joshua Zuazo were sentenced to life without the possibility of parole in the 2024 murder of Hussein “Sam” Murray.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
Policies & IssuesDec 15, 2025
Sara Yood Named Co-Chair of RJC Standards CommitteeYood will serve alongside Eduard Stefanescu, the sustainability manager for C.Hafner, a precious metals refiner in Germany.
IndependentsDec 15, 2025
M.S. Rau to Open Store in AspenThe New Orleans jeweler is also hosting pop-up jewelry boutiques in New York City and Dallas.
AuctionsDec 12, 2025
13.54-Carat Paraíba Tourmaline Sets Records at Christie’sSet in a Tiffany & Co. necklace, it sold for $4.2 million, the highest price and price per carat paid for a Paraíba tourmaline at auction.
MajorsDec 12, 2025
David Webb Reveals Ice-Cold Holiday Window DisplayThe jeweler’s “Deep Freeze” display showcases its iconic jewelry designs frozen in a vintage icebox.
CollectionsDec 12, 2025
Piece of the Week: Oscar Heyman’s Sphene RingTake luxury gifting to new heights this holiday season with the jeweler’s showstopping 12-carat sphene ring.
Events & AwardsDec 12, 2025
IGI Jewelry Design Contest Now Accepting SubmissionsThis year's theme is “Unveiling the Depths of the Ocean.”
TrendsDec 11, 2025
Pinterest 2026 Trend Report: Brooches, Bold Gold, Cool BlueIn its annual report, Pinterest noted an increase in searches for brooches, heirloom jewelry, and ‘80s luxury.
GradingDec 11, 2025
GIA to Offer Origin Determination for 3 More GemstonesStarting Jan. 1, customers can request the service for opal, peridot, and demantoid garnet.
IndependentsDec 11, 2025
Look Inside Day’s Jewelers’ Ninth StoreThe 111-year-old retailer celebrated the opening of its new location in Salem, New Hampshire, which is its third store in the state.
MajorsDec 11, 2025
Americas Gold Releases New Gold Chain CatalogThe new catalog features its most popular chains as well as new styles.
AuctionsDec 10, 2025
Francis Ford Coppola’s Watch Sells for $10.8MThe filmmaker’s personal F.P. Journe “FFC” prototype was the star of Phillips’ recent record-setting watch auction in New York.
WatchesDec 10, 2025
There’s A New Rolex Boutique in MiamiThe new location in the Design District pays homage to Miami’s Art Deco heritage and its connection to the ocean.
SourcingDec 10, 2025
NAJA Announces Details for 2026 ‘Ace It’ Winter Conference“Longtime favorite” presenters, as well as first-time speakers, will lead talks and workshops at the annual event in Tucson next year.
Events & AwardsDec 10, 2025
MJSA Names 2025 Responsible Design Challenge WinnerSilas Smith of Meridian Metalworks won the challenge with his pendant that blends Australian and American landscapes.
AuctionsDec 09, 2025
‘Desert Rose’ Diamond Sells for $8.8M in Abu DhabiThe sale of the 31.68-carat, sunset-hued stone was part of Sotheby’s first series of events and auctions in Abu Dhabi.
ColumnistsDec 09, 2025
Holiday Sales Happen in December, Most Decisions Don’tMost customers who walk into your store this month have made up their minds. Your job is to validate their choice, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
TrendsDec 09, 2025
‘Once Upon a Time,’ Guzema Debuted Its Holiday CollectionThe collection features characters and motifs from Ukrainian folklore, including an enchanted mirror and a magic egg.
TechnologyDec 09, 2025
Gemvision Releases Updated MatrixGoldMatrixGold 3.11, the newest version of the jewelry design program, offers more flexibility, precision, and creative control.
Events & AwardsDec 09, 2025
MJSA Showcase Pavilion Returning to JA New York The pavilion will be part of the 2026 JA New York Spring show, scheduled for March 15 to 17.
