Surveys

NRF Predicts Retail Sales Will Grow 4% This Year

SurveysFeb 10, 2017

NRF Predicts Retail Sales Will Grow 4% This Year

Despite an element of political uncertainty, the National Retail Federation expects retail industries to fare better in 2017.

Washington--The National Retail Federation has predicted that retail sales will increase between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent in 2017.

Online sales and non-store/online sales are expected to increase between 8 and 12 percent, a figure that is included in the overall 3.7-4.2 percent prediction.

“The economy is on firm ground as we head into 2017 and is expected to build on the momentum we saw late last year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “With jobs and income growing and debt relatively low, the fundamentals are in place and the consumer is in the driver’s seat.”

NRF’s Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “It is clear that online sales will continue to expand in 2017 and provide growth for the retail industry. But it is important to realize that virtually every major retailer sells online and many of those sales will be made by discount stores, department stores and other traditional retailers. Retailers sell to consumers however they want to buy, whether it’s in store, online or mobile.” 

NRF stated that the economy should provide 160,000 new jobs a month in 2017, which is slightly down from last year, and unemployment should drop to 4.6 percent by the end of the year.

The retail trade association expects overall economic growth to be at about 1.9 to 2.4 percent for the year.

Shay and Kleinhenz also spoke on the economic ramifications of having a new administration in the White House.

“This year is unlike any other,” said Shay. “While consumers have strength they haven’t had in the past, they will remain hesitant to spend until they have more certainty about policy changes on taxes, trade and other issues being debated in Congress.

“Lawmakers should take note and stand firm against any policies, rules or regulations that would increase the cost of everyday goods for American consumers.”

Kleinhenz added, “Prospects for consumer spending are straightforward--more jobs and more income will result in more spending. Regardless of sentiment, the pace of wage growth and job creation dictate spending.

“Our forecast represents a baseline for the year, but potential fiscal policy changes could impact consumers and the economy. It seems unlikely that businesses will notably increase investment until tax reform and trade policies are well-defined.”

The NRF represents most traditional retail industries, including non-store sales, discounters, department stores, grocery stores, specialty stores and auto parts and accessories stores.

However, the

NRF does not take sales into account from auto dealers, gas stations or restaurants, and these industries are not represented in the above predictions.
Ashley Davisis the senior editor, fashion at National Jeweler, covering all things related to design, style and trends.

The Latest

Boucheron Quatre Sand Collection
CollectionsOct 02, 2025
Boucheron Debuts Cuffs Crafted With 3D-Printed Sand

Its “Quantre Sand” capsule was made using a 3D sand printing technique borrowed from the automotive and aeronautics industries.

Stock image of crime scene tape
CrimeOct 02, 2025
$1M in Jewelry Stolen in Northern California Smash and Grab

Four individuals have been charged in the “takeover-style” robbery of Heller Jewelers last month, and additional charges are expected.

Neil Lane and Boucheron bow tie brooch
MajorsOct 02, 2025
Neil Lane Jewelry Exhibition Coming to Toledo Museum of Art

“Radiance and Reverie” will showcase more than 150 jewels from Lane’s personal collection by Tiffany & Co., Cartier, and more.

gia-edu main image.png
Brought to you by
A Brilliant Future Is Here

Online education from GIA experts.

Just Jules opal necklace
TrendsOct 02, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: October’s Colorful Show

The month’s birthstones, tourmaline and opal, complement the palette of autumn.

Weekly QuizOct 02, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Peter Smith National Jeweler columnist
ColumnistsOct 01, 2025
Peter Smith: Why Vendor Success Starts With Self-Reflection

Smith shares the importance of looking at your company with openness and honesty to identify opportunities you may be missing.

Plah Black Swan Earrings
EditorsOct 01, 2025
Playing Favorites: The Best Jewelry From Vicenzaoro

Associate Editor Natalie Francisco visited Italy to spot jewelry trends at the September Vicenzaoro show and share her top finds.

reDollar-fine-jewelry-department.jpg
Brought to you by
reDollar.com Is Rolling Out the Next Level Jewelry, Diamond & Watch Consignment Program

With their unmatched services and low fees, reDollar.com is challenging some big names in the online consignment world.

Gemfields rough emeralds
SourcingOct 01, 2025
Gemfields’ H1 Revenue Falls 47%

Its latest interim financials revealed a challenging first half due in part to production troubles at its mines.

Pandora executives Alexander Lacik and Berta de Pablos-Barbier
MajorsSep 30, 2025
Pandora CEO to Retire in 2026, Hand Reins to CMO

Alexander Lacik has led Pandora since 2019. Berta de Pablos-Barbier will succeed him, the first woman to head the company.

Gavel near stacks of books
CrimeSep 30, 2025
2 Suspects Charged in $300K Sleight-of-Hand Jewelry Store Scam

Two men allegedly used counterfeit bills to purchase luxury watches and jewelry from a North Carolina jeweler.

Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell John Hardy Lovestruck Collection
CollectionsSep 30, 2025
Billie Eilish, Finneas Partner with John Hardy

The “Lovestruck” collection, designed with the Academy and Grammy award-winning siblings, is the brand’s first lab-grown diamond offering.

Spinelli Kilcollin Market Highland Park
IndependentsSep 30, 2025
Spinelli Kilcollin Announces Residency in Dallas

The brand, celebrating its 15th anniversary, has popped up at Market, a luxury fashion destination in Highland Park Village.

Nina Pugliese Henne Jewelers
IndependentsSep 29, 2025
Nina Pugliese, Longtime Henne Jewelers Employee, Dies at 65

She was remembered as a creative and generous woman of faith, who also had a sweet tooth.

Kwait White and Yellow Gold Diamond Earrings
TrendsSep 29, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Ear Focus

Move over neck mess, the ear story is the way to make a layering statement today.

Mark Henry Leandra Medine Cohen
IndependentsSep 29, 2025
Mark Henry Jewelry to Debut in Canada

The New York-based brand is set to launch a limited-time offering for the holiday season at Holt Renfrew in Toronto.

Overnight volume 7 bridal catalog
MajorsSep 29, 2025
Overnight Releases New Bridal Catalog

The “Volume 7” bridal catalog features best-selling engagement rings, trending styles, and a new section highlighting anniversary bands.

Austin Shines Jewelry Award
Events & AwardsSep 26, 2025
Winners of Austin Jewelry Design Contest Announced

Jamie Turner Designs is among the winners of the local “Austin Shines” contest, hosted by Eliza Page, a jewelry store in Austin, Texas.

Kwit Square Signet Pinky Ring in Red and Azure
TrendsSep 26, 2025
Piece of the Week: Kwit Jewelry’s Square Signet Pinky Ring

The red and azure colorway is one of many fun enamel pairings offered, bringing whimsy to the classic style of a monogramed signet ring.

Jewelers of America Fly In
Policies & IssuesSep 25, 2025
JA CEO Provides Tariff Update Following Annual Fly-In

A trade deal with Switzerland seems probable, but reaching an agreement with India remains a challenge, David Bonaparte said.

Entrance to Jwaneng diamond mine in Botswana
SourcingSep 25, 2025
2 African Countries Aim to Take Stake in De Beers

Botswana’s president said his country wants a controlling share, while Angola envisions multiple countries holding minority stakes.

Kira Jewels Growing Rowing Machines
Lab-GrownSep 25, 2025
Kira Jewels Expands Lab-Grown Diamond Production

The manufacturer is adding 1,400 chemical vapor deposition (CVD) reactors to its growing facility in India.

Alex Moss SoHo store
IndependentsSep 25, 2025
Alex Moss’ New Flagship Brings Bold Jewels to SoHo

The jeweler to the stars has worked with Drake, A$AP Rocky, Tyler the Creator, and other celebrities.

Matthew Wilson, Kavin Kulamavalava, and a Elmasolvex VA
WatchesSep 25, 2025
Wilson & Son Jewelers Donates to the Horological Society of New York

The Scarsdale, New York-based jeweler donated a professional-grade watch cleaning machine.

Representatives of India’s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council and Indian government leaders
Policies & IssuesSep 24, 2025
Tariffs Throw Diamond Trade Into Disarray

The 50 percent tariffs on diamonds shipped from India to the U.S. have pushed midstream manufacturers to the edge.

Father’s Day diamond advertisement that ran in India
SourcingSep 24, 2025
De Beers Adopts New Strategies to Drive Natural Diamond Demand in India

De Beers’ refreshed, multipronged approach, which includes generic promotions and retail partnerships, is delivering positive dividends.

Policies & IssuesSep 24, 2025
For Jewelry Manufacturers, Higher Tariffs Create Long-Term Worries

They are trying to balance the need to sustain well-established relationships with the pressure higher tariffs have put on margins.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy