AuctionsSep 29, 2026
Dionne Warwick’s Jewelry Goes Up for AuctionOnline bidding is open now for Julien’s sale of items owned by the “Walk On By” singer, whose final album comes out this fall.
IndependentsOct 04, 2019
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
More on Independents
The Latest
Events & AwardsSep 29, 2026
Matt Stuller to Receive 2027 Gem Award for Lifetime AchievementThe founder and executive chairman of Stuller Inc. is being honored for his impact on the jewelry industry at the 25th annual Gem Awards.
ColumnistsSep 29, 2026
Your Holiday Marketing Has a Bridal Blind SpotDecember is the most popular month to propose, and jewelers need to keep that in mind when planning their holiday marketing.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
AuctionsSep 29, 2026
If You Love Cats, This Jewelry Auction Is for YouCat ladies of the jewelry world, unite. Sandy Lerner’s collection of cat jewelry and other objects is going up for auction Wednesday.
Weekly QuizSep 25, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsSep 28, 2026
De Beers London Drops Water-Inspired High Jewelry Collection“Vibrations” features several firsts for De Beers’ high jewelry, including the use of chalcedony and diamonds sourced from artisanal miners.
CollectionsSep 28, 2026
Jessica McCormack Turns to Classic Motif for New CollectionThe “Bows” collection features three interpretations of the bow motif designed with Georgian and Victorian influences.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
Events & AwardsSep 28, 2026
Guy Borenstein, Troy Underwood Among the Professionals Honored at AGS Conclave 2026The American Gem Society recognized industry members, one Guild, and a law enforcement official for their contributions to jewelry.
FinancialsSep 28, 2026
Instappraise, Jewelers Mutual Look to Simplify Jewelry InsuranceThrough a new system integration, customers can now receive instant personal jewelry insurance quotes at the time of appraisal.
WatchesSep 25, 2026
Smaller Rolex Watches Showing Strength on Secondary Market, Data ShowsFive of the 10 fastest-appreciating Rolex models on Bob’s Watches were Datejust 31 or Lady Datejust watches.
MajorsSep 25, 2026
Sherwood Family Buys Back Daniel’s Jewelers from Private EquityThe Sherwood family and AJS Creations CEO Tejas Shah purchased the jewelry chain back from Palladium Equity Partners.
Lab-GrownSep 25, 2026
Brilliant Earth Collabs with Elizabeth Taylor Estate on Jewelry Collection“The Elizabeth Taylor Collection” uses lab-grown diamonds and gemstones in contemporary designs inspired by the icon.
TrendsSep 25, 2026
A Peek at Taylor Swift’s Game-Day DiamondsThe artist wore Dana Rebecca Designs’ marquise diamond-set gold hoops at the Chiefs game last Sunday. Now they’re our Piece of the Week.
CrimeSep 24, 2026
From Conclave: Security Measures Jewelers Should Be TakingJSA and Jewelers Mutual shared advice on spotting suspicious behavior, combatting cell phone jammers, and staying safe at home.
AuctionsSep 24, 2026
8-Carat Blue Diamond Heads to UK Jewelry AuctionThe fancy light blue diamond is estimated to fetch up to $2.6 million at Elmwood’s next week.
TrendsSep 24, 2026
This New Jewelry Book Decodes the Secret Meaning in Victorian Jewelry“Secret Language of Victorian Jewelry” unveils the meaning behind the symbols, motifs, and gemstones used in Victorian-era jewelry.
Lab-GrownSep 24, 2026
Kira Jewels Opens B2B E-Commerce Portal for Lab-Grown Diamond Jewelry KIRAJewels.one gives retailers access to more than 500 SKUs of lab-grown diamond rings, earrings, necklaces, and bracelets.
TrendsSep 23, 2026
Holiday Diamond Jewelry Trends: Layered Looks, PersonalizationThis holiday season, look to pieces that will help to fill out customers’ everyday diamond jewelry wardrobe, experts say.
SourcingSep 23, 2026
Organization That Promotes Natural Diamond Rebrands for Third Time The Natural Diamond Council is now The Diamond Collective and has announced a new strategy under CEO Amber Pepper.
MajorsSep 23, 2026
Kay Jewelers’ New Campaign Goes ‘All In’ on LovePart of its brand relaunch, the marketing around the campaign includes a contest involving a jacket set with 550 diamonds.
Events & AwardsSep 23, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Exhibition Opening at Arkansas Museum The curation, opening soon at the Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art, honors the jeweler’s heritage through a distinctly American lens.
CollectionsSep 23, 2026
Pucker Up for Pandora’s New Pat McGrath Jewelry CollabThe jewelry giant has partnered with the famed makeup artist to create a colorful new collection of charms and rings.
IndependentsSep 23, 2026
Texas Jewelers Association to Celebrate 120th AnniversaryThe association will mark the milestone at its convention next month.
IndependentsSep 23, 2026
Sissy’s Log Cabin’s ‘Back to School and Bling’ Event ReturnsThe jeweler donated school supplies to Memphis, Tennessee, students during the event combining basketball and mentorship.
MajorsSep 22, 2026
Foundrae’s Lawsuit Against Pandora Can Continue, Court RulesA federal judge denied Pandora’s motion to dismiss Foundrae’s claim for copyright infringement of its medallions.
