MajorsApr 02, 2026
Pandora Opens New Canadian Distribution Center Amid Tariff ConcernsThe new facility was also designed to better serve its growing customer base in Canada.
IndependentsOct 04, 2019
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
More on Independents
The Latest
TrendsApr 02, 2026
Michelle Yeoh Fronts New Mikimoto Campaign The campaign is a tribute to the year 1893, when Kokichi Mikimoto created the world’s first cultured pearl.
GradingApr 02, 2026
GIA Debuts New Campus in TaiwanIt is the only GIA school to offer the GIA Graduate Gemologist program in Chinese.
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
MajorsApr 02, 2026
DCA Launches ‘Second Spark’ Workforce InitiativeThe initiative connects veterans and parents returning to the workforce with careers in jewelry retail.
Weekly QuizMar 26, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
MajorsApr 02, 2026
Hoover & Strong Names New National Sales RepresentativeThe wholesale manufacturer and precious metals refiner has appointed Michael Angelo as its new national sales representative.
MajorsApr 01, 2026
Foundrae Sues Pandora for Allegedly Copying Its Medallion DesignsFoundrae also accused the jewelry giant of copying its mood board style of marketing.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
AuctionsApr 01, 2026
John Jacob Astor IV’s Titanic Pocket Watch Heads to AuctionA Patek Philippe for Tiffany & Co. timepiece owned by the American businessman who died on the Titanic will be offered at Freeman's Chicago.
SurveysApr 01, 2026
Consumers’ Outlook Improves Again in MarchThe Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged up, with optimism about the present outweighing worries about the future.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2026
AGA Opens 2026 Gemological Scholarship, Research Grant ApplicationsApplications are open for the AGA Gemological Scholarship Program through May 15, and until June 2027 for the Gemological Research Grant.
ColumnistsMar 31, 2026
Q1 Clues That Reveal Where Your Jewelry Store’s Sales Are Heading These customer behavior patterns say a lot about how successful your jewelry store is going to be this year, Emmanuel Raheb writes.
CollectionsMar 31, 2026
Mejuri Adds Silver to ‘Puzzle’ CollectionMejuri’s popular collection of 18-karat yellow gold vermeil rings debuted in sterling silver alongside new “Puzzle” slider charms.
CollectionsMar 31, 2026
Buddha Mama, Ashley Longshore to Host Pop-Up in DallasThe Miami-based jewelry brand and the NYC-based artist will be in Dallas from April 9-11.
SourcingMar 31, 2026
NDC Designates April 8 as 'World Diamond Day'The initiative invites those in the industry to share stories on social media highlighting the meaning and impact of natural diamonds.
SourcingMar 31, 2026
GIA VP Jillian Wolk to Take Over at Tracr Wolk’s first day on the job as CEO of Tracr, De Beers Group’s blockchain platform, will be May 1.
EditorsMar 30, 2026
Tom Moses Looks Back on His Decades at GIA Moses, who will leave the lab in May after nearly 50 years, discusses his start in the business, gemstones that stand out, and what’s next.
TrendsMar 30, 2026
Oscar Heyman Debuts First Spring CatalogThe new catalog, which showcases 35 one-of-a-kind pieces of jewelry, is a compliment to the company’s popular holiday catalog.
SourcingMar 30, 2026
Rio Tinto Hauls Last Load from DiavikProduction has ceased at the Canadian diamond mine, which has yielded more than 150 million carats of rough diamonds in its 23-year run.
MajorsMar 30, 2026
Tanishq Opens First New England LocationThe store opening marks the 10th United States location for the India-based jewelry retailer.
MajorsMar 27, 2026
Saks Global Has Changed Its Mind About Closing These 3 StoresTwo Saks Fifth Avenue locations, one in Florida and one in California, and one Neiman Marcus store are off the chopping block.
CollectionsMar 27, 2026
Itä’s ‘Yarí Whirl’ Ring Tells Every Side of the StoryIn the “Tesoro” version of the ring, our Piece of the Week, each side of the gold hexagonal nugget has a unique colored gemstone design.
WatchesMar 26, 2026
Q&A: Citizen Watch America President Jeffrey Cohen on Eco-Drive’s 50th AnniversaryCohen discusses the evolution of Citizen’s light-powered technology, the brand’s cross-generational appeal, and tariffs.
IndependentsMar 26, 2026
Peter Smith Pens Book on Human Behavior in Sales“Essentially Human: On Sales and Salespeople" reveals the underlying human traits and behaviors of the most successful sales professionals.
CollectionsMar 26, 2026
Lionheart Celebrates 13 Years of ‘Cassandane’The collection features symbols of love, luck, and light, based on the story of Queen Cassandane and Cyrus the Great of Persia.
Events & AwardsMar 26, 2026
NAJA, Instappraise Introduce New ScholarshipIt’s the third scholarship to be launched as part of the partnership to help appraisers advance their professional credentials.
Events & AwardsMar 26, 2026
JA Still Accepting Entries for 2026 CASE AwardsThe deadline for entries in the jewelry design competition has been extended to April 3.
