CollectionsFeb 21, 2025
Piece of the Week: Jade Ruzzo’s ‘Tennessee’ Oval Drop EarringsHeidi Gardner, an SNL cast member, wore the smoky quartz earrings on the “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” red carpet on Sunday.
IndependentsOct 04, 2019
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
More on Independents
The Latest
SourcingFeb 21, 2025
Zambia Lifts 15% Export Duty on Gemstones, Metals The reversal comes less than two months after the Zambian government reinstated the tax in an effort to bring in more money.
MajorsFeb 21, 2025
24 Karat Club of New York Names New PresidentThe organization also announced its newly elected officers and directors.
Brought to you by
Get Ready for the JA New York Spring ShowThis year will feature a new MJSA Showcase and partnership with Piazza Italia.
SourcingFeb 20, 2025
Anglo Writes Down Value of De Beers by $2.9B As anticipated, Anglo took another impairment charge on the diamond miner and marketer, which saw revenue sink 23 percent in 2024.
Weekly QuizFeb 21, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingFeb 20, 2025
Harry Winston’s Son Donates Fancy Red Diamond to the SmithsonianRonald Winston is giving the 2.33-carat “Winston Red” to the Smithsonian, 67 years after his father donated the Hope Diamond.
SourcingFeb 20, 2025
GJEPC Names New Chairman, Vice ChairmanKirit Bhansali, a partner in Smital Gems and chairman of India Jewellery Park, will take on the role of chairman.
Brought to you by
3 Ways to Capitalize on America’s Newfound Love of Colored GemsColored stones are stepping into a jewelry spotlight typically reserved for diamonds—are you ready to sell color?
CrimeFeb 19, 2025
Brink’s to Pay $42M After Admitting to Illegally Transporting MoneyThe company has to pay the Justice Department and FinCEN for violating the Bank Secrecy Act, the U.S.’s main anti-money laundering law.
SourcingFeb 19, 2025
Diamond Mining Company CEO Steps Down Amid Sales Slump, LayoffsPetra Diamonds Ltd. CEO Richard Duffy resigned as the diamond miner reported a 30 percent drop in sales to start its fiscal year.
ColumnistsFeb 19, 2025
The Smart Lab: Maximizing Your Jewelry Brand on PinterestPinterest is a potential gold mine for jewelry brands, Emmanuel Raheb writes, provided they follow these five tips.
MajorsFeb 19, 2025
Cartier Opens New Store Inside LAXThe boutique is the French luxury brand’s first airport store on the West Coast.
CollectionsFeb 19, 2025
Swarovski’s NYC Flagship Celebrates Ariana Grande CollabThe store’s facade now features the iconic swan logo and campaign images of the “Wicked” star.
Policies & IssuesFeb 18, 2025
New Customs Requirements for Diamond Imports: What We KnowBeginning in April, companies importing diamonds into the United States will have to list the country in which the diamonds were mined.
AuctionsFeb 18, 2025
A Menagerie of Fabergé Coming to Sotheby’sAround 30 whimsical Fabergé animal carvings will go up for auction at Sotheby’s Geneva in May.
SourcingFeb 18, 2025
Celine Assimon Stepping Down as CEO of De Beers JewellersAssimon will be leaving at the end of February after nearly five years with De Beers.
CollectionsFeb 18, 2025
Tabayer Debuts Its First Men’s Jewelry SelectionsDesigns from the brand’s “Oera” collection have been reimagined with modern masculinity in mind.
SourcingFeb 14, 2025
Navneet Gems Now Offering Unheated Montana SapphiresThe wholesale collection features material from the Rock Creek mine in a variety of colors.
CollectionsFeb 14, 2025
Carolyn Rafaelian Partners with ‘Long Island Medium’ StarThe “Divinely Guided” collection, created in collaboration with Theresa Caputo, features symbols that celebrate the power of connection.
CollectionsFeb 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Lorraine West’s Diamond ‘Open Heart’ RingShow some love on Valentine’s Day with this 14-karat yellow gold ring that features pavé diamonds.
CrimeFeb 13, 2025
Macy’s Employee Foils $1.5M Jewelry Theft The employee confronted the thief, causing the suspect to flee and leave behind the suitcases full of jewelry.
SourcingFeb 13, 2025
Namibian Diamond Co. Suspends CEO, COO After Deadly Heist Namib Desert Diamonds also put its security manager on leave following last month’s robbery that left one employee dead.
Events & AwardsFeb 13, 2025
AGTA Announces Buyer’s Choice Award Winners for Spectrum, Cutting EdgeAGTA recently concluded its 2025 GemFair event in Tucson and is already gearing up for next year’s show, set for Feb. 2-6, 2026.
CollectionsFeb 13, 2025
Royal Chain Releases Its Spring 2025 CatalogMore than 400 new pieces are featured in the supplier’s latest catalog.
TrendsFeb 13, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Hearts for Valentine’s DayThis curation celebrates love with heart-shaped jewelry of all shapes and sizes.
Policies & IssuesFeb 13, 2025
Jewelers Relief Fund Reopened to Aid Victims of LA Fires The fund is collecting money for jewelry businesses damaged by the wildfires in Los Angeles County.
TrendsFeb 12, 2025
5 Engagement Ring Trends Expected to Rule 2025From chunky bands to vintage diamond cuts and bezel settings, these are the trends experts are seeing take over the bridal market.
