MajorsFeb 12, 2026
These 8 Saks Fifth Avenue Stores Are ClosingParent company Saks Global is also closing nearly all Saks Off 5th locations, a Neiman Marcus store, and 14 personal styling suites.
IndependentsOct 04, 2019
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
More on Independents
The Latest
CollectionsFeb 12, 2026
British Museum Raises $5M to Keep Jewel Linked to Henry VIII, Katherine of AragonIt is believed the 24-karat heart-shaped enameled pendant was made for an event marking the betrothal of Princess Mary in 1518.
SourcingFeb 12, 2026
‘Cotton Candy’ Necklace, 35-Carat Kunzite Win 2025 ‘Buyer’s Choice’ AwardsThe AGTA Spectrum and Cutting Edge “Buyer’s Choice” award winners were announced at the Spectrum Awards Gala last week.
Brought to you by
The MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program: Attracting & Training the Next Generation of Bench JewelersLaunched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.
Events & AwardsFeb 12, 2026
Kering Opens Entries for 2026 Sustainability-Focused AwardThe “Kering Generation Award x Jewelry” returns for its second year with “Second Chance, First Choice” as its theme.
Weekly QuizFeb 12, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TrendsFeb 11, 2026
Halle Berry’s Retro Engagement Ring Is a Sapphire-Set StunnerSourced by For Future Reference Vintage, the yellow gold ring has a round center stone surrounded by step-cut sapphires.
MajorsFeb 11, 2026
Francesca’s Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy AgainThe clothing and accessories chain announced last month it would be closing all of its stores.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
CollectionsFeb 11, 2026
Zales Turns Sweethearts Into Jewelry for Valentine’s Day CollectionThe “Zales x Sweethearts” collection features three mystery heart charms engraved with classic sayings seen on the Valentine’s Day candies.
TechnologyFeb 11, 2026
Gemvision Symposium 2026 Slated for AprilThe event will include panel discussions, hands-on demonstrations of new digital manufacturing tools, and a jewelry design contest.
Events & AwardsFeb 11, 2026
TJS Announces Roundtable, Launches New AppRegistration is now open for The Jewelry Symposium, set to take place in Detroit from May 16-19.
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
At Meeting in South Africa, Support for Natural Diamonds Picks Up Steam Namibia has formally signed the Luanda Accord, while two key industry organizations pledged to join the Natural Diamond Council.
TrendsFeb 10, 2026
Bad Bunny Wears Football-Shaped ‘Desert Diamond’ for Halftime PerformanceLady Gaga, Cardi B, and Karol G also went with diamond jewelry for Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show honoring Puerto Rico.
SurveysFeb 10, 2026
Shoppers to Spend Big on Jewelry This Valentine’s Day, Says NRFJewelry is expected to be the No. 1 gift this year in terms of dollars spent.
FinancialsFeb 10, 2026
Kering Plans Transformation as 2025 Sales Sink 13%As star brand Gucci continues to struggle, the luxury titan plans to announce a new roadmap to return to growth.
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
AGTA To Debut ‘Stuller Color of the Year’ Spectrum Awards CategoryThe new category asks entrants for “exceptional” interpretations of the supplier’s 2026 color of the year, which is “Signature Red.”
Policies & IssuesFeb 09, 2026
U.S., India Trade Deal One Step Closer to Being FinalizedThe White House issued an official statement on the deal, which will eliminate tariffs on loose natural diamonds and gemstones from India.
Events & AwardsFeb 09, 2026
JA Now Accepting Entries for 2026 CASE AwardsEntries for the jewelry design competition will be accepted through March 20.
TrendsFeb 09, 2026
These 14 Jewels Will Melt Your Heart This Valentine’s DayFrom heart motifs to pink pearls, Valentine’s Day is filled with jewelry imbued with love.
CrimeFeb 06, 2026
Florida Man Sentenced After Selling Fake Native American Jewelry for a Decade Prosecutors say the man attended arts and craft fairs claiming he was a third-generation jeweler who was a member of the Pueblo tribe.
FinancialsFeb 06, 2026
Pandora’s North America GM Departs Amid Executive ChangesNew CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier shared her priorities for the Danish jewelry company this year as part of its fourth-quarter results.
TrendsFeb 06, 2026
Margot Robbie, Jacob Elordi Wear Matching Cece Jewellery Signet RingsOur Piece of the Week picks are these bespoke rings the “Wuthering Heights” stars have been spotted wearing during the film’s press tour.
MajorsFeb 05, 2026
Pandora to Begin Selling Platinum-Plated JewelryThe introduction of platinum plating will reduce its reliance on silver amid volatile price swings, said Pandora.
SourcingFeb 05, 2026
De Beers Lowers Production Guidance for 2026, Anglo Mulls Another WritedownIt would be the third impairment charge in three years on De Beers Group, which continues to grapple with a “challenging” diamond market.
CollectionsFeb 05, 2026
Marco Bicego’s Amethyst Collection Travels to a Purple ParadiseThe “Paradise Amethyst” collection focuses on amethyst, pink tourmaline, garnet, and 18-karat yellow gold beads.
FinancialsFeb 05, 2026
Watches of Switzerland Reports Strong Holiday Results in Q3The retailer credited its Roberto Coin campaign, in part, for boosting its North America sales.
ColumnistsFeb 04, 2026
January Jewelry Sales: More Dollars Spent, Fewer Units Sold Sherry Smith unpacks independent retailers’ January performance and gives tips for navigating the slow-growth year ahead.
