WatchesNov 05, 2025
Shinola President Steps Down Just as He Starts Former Signet CEO Mark Light will remain president of Shinola until a replacement for Ulrich Wohn is found.
IndependentsOct 04, 2019
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
More on Independents
The Latest
AuctionsNov 05, 2025
Taylor Swift’s Engagement Ring Designer Makes Her Auction DebutKindred Lubeck of Artifex has three rings she designed with Anup Jogani in Sotheby’s upcoming Gem Drop sale.
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Pandora Posts Modest Q3 Sales Growth Amid ‘Weak’ Consumer Sentiment The company focused on marketing in the third quarter and introduced two new charm collections, “Pandora Talisman” and “Pandora Minis.”
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America Aligns New Mission to Create Meaningful Impact for MembersFrom educational programs, advocacy, and recent MJSA affiliation, Jewelers of America drives progress that elevates businesses of all sizes.
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Brilliant Earth’s Q3 Sales Climb 10%The jewelry retailer raised its full-year guidance, with CFO Jeff Kuo describing the company as “very well positioned” for the holidays.
Weekly QuizOct 30, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Policies & IssuesNov 04, 2025
Supreme Court to Hear Tariffs Case WednesdayAhead of the hearing, two industry organizations co-signed an amicus brief urging the court to declare Trump’s tariffs unlawful.
MajorsNov 04, 2025
Danny Clark to Become Stuller CEO, Succeeding Matt StullerStuller COO Belit Myers will take on the additional role of president, with all changes effective at the start of 2026.
ColumnistsNov 04, 2025
Peter Smith: What Do Birds Have to Do With the Price of Gold? Smith cautions retailers against expending too much energy on things they can’t control, like the rising price of gold.
TrendsNov 04, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Fall Colors for November BirthdaysCitrine and topaz are birthstones fit for fall as the leaves change color and the holiday season approaches.
CrimeNov 03, 2025
Men Dressed as Construction Workers Burglarize Jeweler’s Home The NYPD is looking for three men who stole a safe and jewelry valued at $3.2 million from the home of a jeweler in Jamaica Hills, Queens.
MajorsNov 03, 2025
Matthew Rosenheim Takes Over as JA Board ChairThe trade organization also announced its executive committee and five new directors.
CollectionsNov 03, 2025
Muse’s ‘Have a Heart’ Collab Returns, Now With DDGThe “Have a Heart x Diamonds Do Good” collection is championed by model and humanitarian Flaviana Matata and will benefit her foundation.
AuctionsNov 03, 2025
Kashmir Sapphire Ring Tops Christie's Online AuctionThe ring, set with a nearly 17-carat Kashmir cabochon sapphire, sold for $1 million.
TrendsOct 31, 2025
Piece of the Week: A Spinner Fit for ‘Frankenstein’This “Mother Father” spinner necklace from Heavenly Vices Fine Jewelry draws inspiration from Victorian Era jewelry.
CrimeOct 31, 2025
5 More Arrested in Louvre Heist, Jewelry Still Missing The suspects were rounded up in Paris and its suburbs on Wednesday night, but none of the stolen jewels were recovered with them.
Recorded WebinarsOct 31, 2025
Watch: How to Master Google Reviews for Your BusinessExperts share top tips on how to encourage positive reviews and handle negative feedback.
Supplier BulletinOct 30, 2025
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessSponsored by the Gemological Institute of America
CrimeOct 30, 2025
29-Year-Old Man Charged in Multiple Seattle-Area Smash and Grabs The suspect faces charges in the August robbery of Menashe & Sons Jewelers and is accused of committing smash and grabs at two pawn shops.
Lab-GrownOct 30, 2025
Alison Lou’s New Collection Uses Lab-Grown Diamonds and ResinThe “Lumière Fine” collection was born from designer Alison Chemla’s interest in the transformative power of light.
TrendsOct 30, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: A Haunted HalloweenShow off your spooky side with these 12 festive jewels.
Events & AwardsOct 30, 2025
Jewelers Mutual to Host Jewelry Panel at Frazier History MuseumThe “Brilliant & Beyond” panel coincides with the “Love & Marriage” exhibition curated by Davis Jewelers in Louisville, Kentucky.
Events & AwardsOct 29, 2025
October Brings Little Change to Consumer Confidence Consumers are feeling more optimistic about their present situation while the short-term future remains a little scary.
Events & AwardsOct 29, 2025
Couture Partners With Time to WatchesThe company, which organizes a watch show in Geneva every spring, will bring a selection of watch brands to the 2026 Couture show in Vegas.
TrendsOct 29, 2025
Beth Bernstein Releases Vintage Jewelry Guide“The Modern Guide to Vintage Jewellery” follows the evolution of jewelry design from the ‘30s to the ‘80s with buying and styling advice.
EditorsOct 29, 2025
Why Creepy, Crawly Bugs Inspire Beautiful JewelryFor her annual Halloween story, Senior Editor Lenore Fedow explores the symbolism behind spiders, beetles, and other eerie insects.
Events & AwardsOct 28, 2025
Meet the 2026 Gem Award NomineesNotable jewelry designers, members of the press, and retailers are up for an award at next year’s gala.
