CollectionsApr 02, 2025
Bea Bongiasca’s ‘Tarallo’ Collection Expansion Is a ZooThe pieces in “Animali Tarallo” portray animals from stingrays to elephants through portraits and interpretations of their patterns.
IndependentsOct 04, 2019
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
More on Independents
The Latest
MajorsApr 02, 2025
Neiman Marcus’ Dallas Flagship Will Remain Open, For NowParent company Saks Global said the iconic location will be open through the holiday season as it decides what to do with the space.
SourcingApr 02, 2025
Winston’s Collection of Natural Color Diamonds Now on Display in D.C. Ronald Winston, son of Harry Winston, donated the diamonds to the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.
Brought to you by
The Heart of the Industry: Giving Bench Jewelers the Recognition They DeserveBench jewelers spend years honing their skills, Jewelers of America’s Certification validates their talents.
Policies & IssuesApr 02, 2025
Jewelers of America to Hold Webinar on TariffsThe virtual event will take place April 7 at 3 p.m.
Weekly QuizMar 27, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsApr 02, 2025
Punchmark to Host Client WorkshopThe educational event will take place in Charlotte, North Carolina, this May.
MajorsApr 01, 2025
QVC Group to Cut 900 Jobs in the U.S.The layoffs come amid the TV shopping channel’s efforts to restructure and focus on live shopping through social media.
Brought to you by
Natural Diamonds Should Mean MoreNatural diamonds mean more than lab-grown, but when every cut is ideal, they all look the same. Customers want more—Facets of Fire delivers.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
U.S. Antique Shows Adds Fall Show in FloridaThe debut event will take place in Miami’s Coconut Grove neighborhood this fall.
Events & AwardsApr 01, 2025
TJS to Host Discussion on Jewelry Industry’s Labor ShortageThe roundtable will take place May 17 ahead of the trade show’s welcome dinner.
CollectionsApr 01, 2025
Monica Rich Kosann Says ‘Good Grief’ in Peanuts Jewelry CollectionThe “Peanuts x Monica Rich Kosann” collection features the comic strip’s classic vocabulary across 10 bracelet designs.
Recorded WebinarsMar 31, 2025
Watch: What Do We Mean When We Say ‘Recycled’ Gold?Three industry experts dive into the complexities of the material often marketed as an “ethical” alternative for metal in jewelry.
TrendsMar 31, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Dripping in DiamondsDiamonds are not only one of the most prominent gemstones, but the birthstone for those born in April.
MajorsMar 31, 2025
Lashbrook Expands Into Luxury Golf Gifts With AcquisitionThe Utah-based company known for making wedding bands has acquired Doubloon Golf.
WatchesMar 31, 2025
Bulgari CEO Jean-Christophe Babin Will Also Head LVMH WatchesThe longtime luxury executive led one of LVMH’s watch brands, TAG Heuer, for 12 years before taking over Bulgari in 2013.
CrimeMar 28, 2025
2 Suspects Arrested in $1.7M Smash-and-Grab Robbery of NY Jewelry StoreAuthorities said the robbers fled with jewelry and 70 Rolex watches, later taking pictures of themselves posing with big stacks of cash.
SourcingMar 28, 2025
19th-Century Jade Book Now Available in EnglishLotus Gemology founder Richard W. Hughes has translated Heinrich Fischer’s 1880 book “Nephrit und Jadeit” from its original German.
CollectionsMar 28, 2025
Piece of the Week: Löf’s ‘The Valentine’ RingThe ring's design features contrasting lines influenced by work from architecture-inspired photographer Nikola Olic.
SurveysMar 27, 2025
Consumer Confidence Falls in March Amid ‘Gloomy’ OutlookThe Conference Board’s index fell as consumers continued to worry about the impact of tariffs, the labor market, and the price of eggs.
AuctionsMar 27, 2025
300-Year-Old Ring Linked to Witch Trial Judge Goes Unsold at Auction However, two medieval jewels surpassed estimates at Noonans Mayfair’s recent jewelry auction in London.
WatchesMar 27, 2025
Austin Butler Joins Breitling as Brand AmbassadorThe Oscar-nominated actor debuted in the campaign for the new “Top Time B31” collection, which introduced Breitling’s Caliber B31.
SourcingMar 27, 2025
Susan Jacques, Gaetano Cavalieri to Headline 2025 ICA Congress The Congress is scheduled to take place May 19-22 in Brasilia, Brazil.
WatchesMar 26, 2025
Bulova Celebrates 150th Anniversary With Art Deco WatchesThe “150 Art Deco” collection features a Miss America timepiece and a pocket watch from the brand’s Archive Series.
MajorsMar 26, 2025
QVC Group Appoints New PresidentAlex Wellen, formerly CEO and president of MotorTrend Group, has taken on the role.
Events & AwardsMar 26, 2025
Jewelers of America Announces New Funding Initiative The Impact Initiative is part of the nonprofit association’s new three-year strategic plan.
AuctionsMar 25, 2025
Christie’s To Auction 35-Carat Sapphire, 13-Carat RubyThe ruby and the sapphire, which Christie’s calls a “once-in-a-generation masterpiece,” are part of the upcoming Hong Kong jewelry auction.
CrimeMar 25, 2025
Tiffany & Co. Earrings Swallowed Following Grab-and-Run Theft RecoveredThe two pairs of earrings, snatched from a Tiffany & Co. store in Orlando, Florida, are valued at a combined $769,500.
