Independents

NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year

IndependentsOct 04, 2019

NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year

Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.

2019_Holiday-shopping-bags.jpg
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.

New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.

Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.

Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.

It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.

He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.

The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.

“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.

“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”

He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.

Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.

RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry Industry
Some merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.

Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.

“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”

A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?

He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.

The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.

Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.

“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
Brecken Branstratoris the senior editor, gemstones at National Jeweler, covering sourcing, pricing and other developments in the colored stone sector.

The Latest

Navneet montana sapphire
SourcingFeb 14, 2025
Navneet Gems Now Offering Unheated Montana Sapphires

The wholesale collection features material from the Rock Creek mine in a variety of colors.

Theresa Caputo &LIVY jewelry
CollectionsFeb 14, 2025
Carolyn Rafaelian Partners with ‘Long Island Medium’ Star

The “Divinely Guided” collection, created in collaboration with Theresa Caputo, features symbols that celebrate the power of connection.

Lorraine West Diamond Open Heart Ring
CollectionsFeb 14, 2025
Piece of the Week: Lorraine West’s Diamond ‘Open Heart’ Ring

Show some love on Valentine’s Day with this 14-karat yellow gold ring that features pavé diamonds.

Top Image.png
Brought to you by
3 Ways to Capitalize on America’s Newfound Love of Colored Gems

Colored stones are stepping into a jewelry spotlight typically reserved for diamonds—are you ready to sell color?

Surveillance image of Macy’s jewelry thief
CrimeFeb 13, 2025
Macy’s Employee Foils $1.5M Jewelry Theft

The employee confronted the thief, causing the suspect to flee and leave behind the suitcases full of jewelry.

Weekly QuizFeb 13, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Namdia rough diamonds
SourcingFeb 13, 2025
Namibian Diamond Co. Suspends CEO, COO After Deadly Heist

Namib Desert Diamonds also put its security manager on leave following last month’s robbery that left one employee dead.

Spectrum and Cutting Edge Buyer’s Choice awards
Events & AwardsFeb 13, 2025
AGTA Announces Buyer’s Choice Award Winners for Spectrum, Cutting Edge

AGTA recently concluded its 2025 GemFair event in Tucson and is already gearing up for next year’s show, set for Feb. 2-6, 2026.

Resolutions - 2025.jpg
Brought to you by
3 New Year’s Resolutions for Jewelry Lovers

The new year feels like a clean slate, inspiring reflection, hope, and the motivation to become better versions of ourselves.

Royal Chain models in 14-karat gold fashion links
CollectionsFeb 13, 2025
Royal Chain Releases Its Spring 2025 Catalog

More than 400 new pieces are featured in the supplier’s latest catalog.

Azra Mehdi pink sapphire ombré heart dog tag necklace in 14-karat rose gold
TrendsFeb 13, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Hearts for Valentine’s Day

This curation celebrates love with heart-shaped jewelry of all shapes and sizes.

Jewelers Relief Fund logo
Policies & IssuesFeb 13, 2025
Jewelers Relief Fund Reopened to Aid Victims of LA Fires

The fund is collecting money for jewelry businesses damaged by the wildfires in Los Angeles County.

3 natural diamond engagement rings by Marrow Fine, Stephanie Gottlieb, Single Stone, and Sylvie Jewelry
TrendsFeb 12, 2025
5 Engagement Ring Trends Expected to Rule 2025

From chunky bands to vintage diamond cuts and bezel settings, these are the trends experts are seeing take over the bridal market.

Jean Prounis cushion-cut diamond engagement ring
EditorsFeb 12, 2025
Q&A: Marion Fasel on the History of Diamond Engagement Rings

Fasel discusses researching her new book, the most enduring engagement ring styles, and the diamond shape Taylor Swift will pick.

De Beers Jewellers Embrace Bracelet
CollectionsFeb 12, 2025
De Beers Jewellers’ New High Jewelry Pays Homage to the Beauty of Trees

The “Essence of Nature, Chapter One” collection echoes trees and roots, literally and figuratively, through three sets of high jewelry.

Shree Ramkrishna Exports (SRK) diamonds
SourcingFeb 12, 2025
SRK Announces Notable Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Late last year, the India-based diamond manufacturer recorded emissions per carat that are 34 percent lower than the industry average.

Peter Smith
ColumnistsFeb 12, 2025
Peter Smith: 9 Store Manager Archetypes

Smith details the types of store managers he’s encountered, with the goal of helping retailers find a person who’s a fit for their store.

myGemma showroom
TechnologyFeb 12, 2025
MyGemma Now Offers Consignment Service

The secondhand reseller stocks pre-owned designer jewelry and watches, along with other luxury goods.

 Ghirardelli Chocolocket
CollectionsFeb 12, 2025
Ghirardelli Is Slipping Chocolate Into a Locket This Valentine's Day

The limited-edition “Chocolocket” fits a mini square of Ghirardelli chocolate inside.

Jewelers of America 20 Under 40 graphic
Events & AwardsFeb 11, 2025
JA Seeking Nominations for Its Next ‘20 Under 40’ Class

The program has been expanded to include a “20 Under 40” list for jewelry suppliers and is accepting nominations through Feb. 19.

Police cars with lights on
CrimeFeb 11, 2025
2 Men Charged With Selling Stolen Jewelry, Watches in NYC Diamond District

One of the men is said to be connected to the South American crew charged with burglarizing Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow’s home.

Bulgari x MB&F Serpenti watch
WatchesFeb 11, 2025
Bulgari, MB&F Launch Reimagined ‘Serpenti’ Watch

The brands immersed one of Bulgari’s most famous historical icons in MB&F’s ultra-mechanical universe of haute horlogerie.

Boucheron Power of Couture campaign
FinancialsFeb 11, 2025
Boucheron a Bright Spot as Kering’s Full-Year Sales Sink 12%

The luxury titan’s full-year performance was weighed down by struggling sales at its star brand Gucci.

Midas Chain Diamond and Gemstone Jewelry
MajorsFeb 11, 2025
Midas Chain Releases First Diamond Collection

The jewelry manufacturer has launched more than 100 pieces made with natural diamonds.

Tacori Stilla ring
SurveysFeb 10, 2025
Jewelry Resilient in 2024 Even As Luxury Sales Slipped, Says Bain & Co.

Bain & Co.’s latest report on the luxury market examines why the market’s customer base is shrinking and how to appeal to consumers in 2025.

Counterfeit Cartier “Juste Un Clou” bracelet
CrimeFeb 10, 2025
Counterfeit Jewelry Kept Kentucky Customs Agents Busy in January, CBP Says

Officers in Louisville seized 28 shipments of fake jewelry and watches that would have been worth more than $27 million if genuine.

Hearts On Fire Inside Out Collection Bracelets
CollectionsFeb 10, 2025
Hearts on Fire Flips Jewelry ‘Inside Out’ in New Collection

The collection centers on the art of tailoring, inspired by designs that feature folded fabrics, such as a tuxedo lapel.

JW Marriott Hotel in Nashville Tennessee
Events & AwardsFeb 10, 2025
Select Jewelry Show Heads to Nashville

The trade show has added a new location to its fall line-up.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy