It’s the Signet-owned banner’s first location in Georgia.
NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year
Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.
![The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December. 2019_Holiday-shopping-bags.jpg](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/eeeb3bc538b7687f0824b58eaf901bbb.jpg)
New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.
Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.
It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.
He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.
The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”
He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.
Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.
RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry IndustrySome merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.
Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.
“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?
He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.
The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.
Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.
“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
The Latest
![These “Double Loop” earrings feature a drop-cut amethyst sitting atop the lower hoop, totaling 1.60 carats between both earrings. The hoops are made of silver covered in “pistacchio” colored enamel, while 9-karat yellow gold holds the stones in place and connect the two hoops behind the earlobe ($1,770). Bea Bongiasca’s Double Loop Earrings](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/f338ef6b4603be3c97765f833b831ca0.jpg)
Commemorate “brat summer” with these green hoops.
![The skyline of downtown Providence, Rhode Island. Jewelers of America held one of its Multifacted Learning Workshops there on July 17 and National Jeweler Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff tagged along. Stock image of Providence, Rhode Island, skyline](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/4ec5b02d4cbaaaa2283bdcf6820950a4.jpg)
Editor-in-Chief Michelle Graff returns from Rhode Island with thoughts about in-store shopping and a trends report.
![Untitled design.jpg](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/583fbcb2bb839782810080debef35d3c.jpg)
As the demand for lab-grown diamond jewelry may still be increasing, the most notable change we are likely to see is price stabilization.
Sponsored by Gemological Institute of America
![](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/99a46b30cc354962ac2e29ecd113587a.jpg)
![Earlier this month, online giant Amazon and the Better Business Bureau filed a joint federal lawsuit against ReviewServiceUSA.com for allegedly selling fake reviews, both positive and negative. Amazon package outside door](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/27fce4225a38900d54a5536ce523a22d.jpg)
They claim ReviewServiceUSA.com was selling both positive and negative reviews of products and businesses.
![A shot of the Venetia diamond mine in South Africa, owned by De Beers Group. The diamond miner and marketer saw revenue drop 21 percent and rough diamond sales decline 20 percent in a “weak” market for diamonds. De Beers’ Venetia diamond mine](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/a1f16ceaaba662e80385166060d192a7.jpg)
Lab-grown diamond sales in the United States and ongoing economic challenges in China are impacting natural diamond demand.
![1872 x 1052 Gemolite.jpg](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/9d60901b44425a53b9010301897a3bbc.jpg)
GIA®’s most advanced microscope has new features to optimize greater precision and comfort.
![A malachite and diamond bracelet from Pomellato’s “Pom Pom Dot” collection, launched earlier this year. Pomellato and Boucheron were bright spots for Kering in an otherwise underwhelming first half of the year. Pomellato Malachite Pom Pom Dot bracelet](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/3c237b62e009742fc52487097daf3c5a.jpg)
The gains come amid a tough time for parent company Kering, which saw sales slide 11 percent in the first half of the year.
![Volunteers and Shane Co.’s corporate team from all 22 locations of the family-owned jewelry chain have begun packing backpacks with school supplies for teachers to distribute to their students this school year. Shane Co. and the Kids in Need foundation logo](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/1c5abfb36ec775724f014f47bfbb47fc.jpg)
The fine jewelry retailer filled backpacks with back-to-school essentials for students in 13 states.
![A shot from the advertising campaign for LVMH-owned Bulgari’s “Eden the Garden of Wonders” high jewelry collection. LVMH’s jewelry and watch sales slipped in the first half of the fiscal year. Bulgari high jewelry campaign](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/c24eb75ca8cea44d2e9859648f4a98ee.jpg)
Tiffany & Co. is focusing on its “iconic” collections while the company has made changes at the top at TAG Heuer and Hublot.
![Chaumet, a Parisian jeweler owned by LVMH, has designed the Olympic and Paralympic Games medals. Chaumet Paris 2024 Olympics medals](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/7831b3a738baddfc7d783e6df0fbf796.jpg)
The Parisian brand is the first jewelry company in the history of the Olympic and Paralympic Games to design the medals.
![The acquisition of Union Life & Casualty by Jewelers Mutual will help strengthen both the pawn market and the insurance industry, said JM. Jewelers Mutual and Union Life and Casualty logos](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/195925667226ecfc51b4e1bb09607143.jpg)
Union Life & Casualty will join JM Insurance Agency Partners, expanding the provider’s pawnbroker coverage.
![The winner of this year’s Lonia Tate scholarship, Bradlei Smith will receive the opportunity to earn her Graduate Gemologist diploma from GIA and, following graduation, an internship at Ben Bridge Jeweler in Seattle. Bradlei Smith](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/996834935ae30a7a1195db8b9db6cb7d.jpg)
Los Angeles-based Bradlei Smith was selected for this year’s award.
![Peter Smith is an industry consultant, speaker, sales trainer, and author. He can be reached via email at TheRetailSmiths@gmail.com. National Jeweler columnist Peter Smith](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/bec7295a7f478778b1c196e6d81e7cd9.jpg)
In his latest column, Smith shares multiple reasons why people who look at the glass as being hall full often make better salespeople.
![De Beers Group mined 6.4 million carats of diamonds in the second quarter of 2024, down from 7.6 million in the same period last year. (©De Beers Group/Photo credit: Ben Perry @ Armoury Films) De Beers rough diamond display](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/80cd02b1c8384f4b2efda0bcdf6a75e1.jpg)
The company also reported the $150 million sale of an iron ore royalty right, part of its ongoing effort to divest “non-core” assets.
![L.A.-based flower designer, Sophia Moreno-Bunge models Guzema’s “Hidden Beauty” collection in front of a garden in Rustic Canyon in Santa Monica, California. Sophia Moreno-Bunge of Isa Isa modeling Guzema’s Hidden Beauty collection](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/6f3822623eb7fd2f6468f82825194cb1.jpg)
The ad features three celebrity florists creating floral sculptures while wearing jewelry by Guzema.
![The Entrepreneurship Grants program supports winners with financial aid to scale their businesses and increase their societal impact, said Diamonds Do Good. Pictured here are three of the 13 winners, top right is Tresia Shituula, and bottom row left to right, are Monkgogi Moshaga and Mohamed Samu. Tresia Shituula, Monkgogi Moshaga, Mohamed Samu](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/a7c9b87301b76a9446f6522747ce5b95.jpg)
The grant provided a total of $100,000 to support 13 entrepreneurs from diamond communities in Africa and India.
![Ghazi Osta, better known as Gus, was the owner and president of Volusia Gold & Diamond, a store he and his wife, Leigh Osta, opened in 1986. He was shot and killed inside the store Friday afternoon after a brief argument with a regular customer. (Photo courtesy of Volusia Gold & Diamond Facebook page) Ghazi “Gus” Michel Osta](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/c8c1fa3df746cbd364915a98dcac9d21.jpg)
Ghazi Michel Osta, or “Gus,” was killed Friday by an 83-year-old man said to be a frequent customer at his store, Volusia Gold & Diamond.
![Elyssa Jenkins-Pérez (left) is the Responsible Jewellery Council’s new head of North American development, and Effie Marinos is its new specialist advisor for technical standards. Elyssa Jenkins-Perez and Effie Marinos](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/94332af0c7a776e7a8c36fabf76baa5f.jpg)
The organization also announced Effie Marinos as its new specialist advisor for technical standards, as well as four other appointments.
![Karen Rentmeesters, who joined the Antwerp World Diamond Centre in 2010, will take on the role of CEO. Karen Rentmeesters](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/3256fcc71cd43a399055c61f68486269.jpg)
Rentmeesters has served as interim CEO since April following former CEO Ari Epstein’s resignation.
![Longtime Washington, D.C., jeweler Brian Mann (right) with his wife Jessie Mann, an artist who custom-paints porcelain Limoges Boxes, at a 2016 Jewelers of America member event. Mann, the longtime co-owner of David Mann Jewelers, died June 21 at age 70. Brian and Jessie Mann](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/be4debc6e0b3198943a66ef0e2197c2c.jpg)
Mann, whose family’s jewelry store was located inside the Pentagon, is remembered for being a thoughtful champion of the industry.
![The 1916 Company recently opened a new Tudor boutique in Denver’s Cherry Creek Shopping Center. Tudor store in Denver](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/9f8600ea53ed731963331ebd28a10d16.jpg)
The 500-square-foot boutique is located in Denver’s Cherry Creek Shopping Center.
![This necklace from Messika’s “So Move Max” set is made of yellow gold with 19.18-carats of brilliant-cut diamonds and designed with circle motifs that move within the links (price upon request). Messika’s So Move Max Necklace](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/14c78af4a4e8c6b996a81bbb5a5bc69f.jpg)
Dance all night long with the “So Move Max” set’s necklace.
![On Sept. 1, Julien Tornare (left), current CEO of TAG Heuer, will become CEO of Hublot. Antoine Pin, now the general manager of Bulgari’s watch business, will take over Tornare’s role as CEO of TAG Heuer. (Images courtesy of LinkedIn) Julien Tornare and Antoine Pin](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/b24627b34ece895ddd254bae22751fb8.jpg)
Luxury giant LVMH is reshuffling the leadership in its watches division.
![A rendering of a billboard from Etsy’s new campaign. The campaign is designed to highlight the platform’s creators and how their products are made. Etsy billboard rendering in NYC](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/9a94f394f326b90dc1c9da6a711c5e09.jpg)
Sellers and shoppers have spoken out against a rise in mass-produced merchandise on the platform meant to highlight handmade goods.
![Ariana Grande said she cannot wait “to inspire others to embrace their own unique sparkle,” as Swarovski’s brand ambassador. (Photo credited to Mert Alas and Marcus Piggot for Swarovski) Ariana Grande Modeling in Swarovski Jewelry](https://uploads.nationaljeweler.com/uploads/adaa79dce0741a275427155078691611.jpg)
The celebrity will star in Swarovski’s holiday campaign.