Independents

NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year

IndependentsOct 04, 2019

NRF: Holiday Retail Sales to Increase 4% This Year

Low unemployment, growing wages and still-strong consumer confidence should provide momentum in the fourth quarter, even as the effects of tariffs loom.

2019_Holiday-shopping-bags.jpg
The National Retail Federation is predicting a brighter holiday season for retailers, with sales increasing as much as 4.2 percent over last year, when the government shutdown and stock market volatility put a damper on November and December.

New York—The National Retail Federation said Thursday it expects holiday retail sales to increase between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared with last year.

Consumer spending in November and December is expected to total between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, excluding sales of automobiles, gas and at restaurants.

Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are forecast to increase between 11 and 14 percent to as much as $166.9 billion. This would be a substantial increase from $146.5 billion last year.

It’s a somewhat-bullish forecast the NRF backs up by pointing to an economy that is strong overall, though it recognizes that there are several factors that could still dampen the holiday season.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a conference call Thursday morning that the fundamentals underlying the economy are positive—low unemployment, growing wages and strong consumer confidence—and will provide momentum in the fourth quarter.

He also noted retail sales have been “very positive” this year, with the three-month moving average up 4.1 percent as of August, and sales the first eight months of the year up 3.6 percent.

The categories expected to do well this holiday season are those that historically do so: apparel, electronics, toys, and gift cards.

“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow, and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” Shay said.

“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”

He added the strong consumer confidence they’ve seen could be “eroded” by those issues.

Tariffs are one of the biggest question marks heading into the holiday season, and their effect on spending, whether direct through prices or through consumer confidence, remains to be seen, the NRF said.

RELATED CONTENT: How Tariffs Will Impact the Jewelry Industry
Some merchandise, including jewelry, apparel, footwear and televisions, was subject to new tariffs that took effect Sept. 1, while other products were spared tariffs until Dec. 15.

Retailers are adopting myriad approaches to tackle the issue, and Shay said that while there isn’t one solution they’re finding, they all want to avoid passing costs on to consumers if they can.

“The vast majority of them still see running room and growth opportunity in this economy, and none want to jeopardize that and all are hoping that we’re going to find a constructive
way to address these issues and resolve our trade disputes and move forward.”

A concern Shay brought up during the call was: Do consumers already feel the impact of tariffs? Are they even aware of them?

He said the NRF finds an increasing number of shoppers are aware of the tariffs because of news coverage and the political rhetoric around them.

The NRF often interviews consumers, and Shay said according to recent field research results, up to eight out of 10 consumers surveyed are now concerned about impact of tariffs on prices, which could impact consumer confidence.

Still, at this point, shoppers are in solid financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Thursday.

“Wages look healthy. Inflation is modest. Debt burdens are low and well-managed. Disposable income has been relatively stable,” he said. “As long as employment continues and we have some wage growth, I think that consumers will be confident about spending.”
Brecken Branstratoris the senior editor, gemstones at National Jeweler, covering sourcing, pricing and other developments in the colored stone sector.

The Latest

Robinson Pelham Fruits of Love Pear Earrings
CollectionsJun 13, 2025
Piece of the Week: Robinson Pelham’s Pear Earrings

Take a bite out of the 14-karat yellow gold “Fruits of Love Pear” earrings featuring peridots, diamond stems, and tsavorite leaves.

Three diamonds with diagrams
Events & AwardsJun 13, 2025
AGA to Host ‘Diamonds From Mine to Market’ Education Conference

The one-day virtual event will feature speakers from De Beers, GIA, and Gemworld International.

Ella Sophie
EditorsJun 12, 2025
15 Questions With Jewelry Photographer Ella Sophie

The California-based creative talks jewelry photography in the modern era and tackles FAQs about working with a pro for the first time.

an instructor and a student in a bench jewelry classroom
Brought to you by
Investing in the Next Generation of Bench Jewelers

The Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship from Jewelers of America returns for a second year.

A pink gold Patek Philippe perpetual calendar chronograph Ref. 2499
AuctionsJun 12, 2025
Vintage Patek Philippe From the ‘50s Sells for $4M at Sotheby’s

Al Capone’s pocket watch also found a buyer, though it went for less than half of what it did at auction four years ago.

Weekly QuizJun 12, 2025
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Take the Quiz
Gabriel Love Foundation Logo
Events & AwardsJun 12, 2025
Gabriel Love Foundation Introduces Scholarship Honoring Elias Gabriel

The foundation has also expanded its “Stronger Together” initiative with Jewelers for Children.

Celine Assimon
AuctionsJun 12, 2025
Former De Beers Exec Celine Assimon Joins Bonhams

Assimon is the auction house’s new chief commercial officer.

Jewelers of America logo with meetup, State of the Majors, giveaway and massages
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America is Headed to Las Vegas for JCK 2025

The countdown is on for the JCK Las Vegas Show and JA is pulling out all the stops.

De Beers CEO Al Cook speaking at JCK Las Vegas 2025
EditorsJun 11, 2025
Q&A: Al Cook on Differentiating Natural Diamonds, Traceability, and Tariffs

The De Beers Group CEO discusses the company’s new “beacon” program, the likelihood diamonds will be exempt from tariffs, and “Origin.”

Pandora Las Vegas ribbon cutting ceremony
MajorsJun 11, 2025
Pandora Bets on Las Vegas for First North American Flagship

The Danish jewelry giant hosted its grand opening last weekend, complete with a Pandora pink roulette wheel.

Tiffany Stevens
GradingJun 11, 2025
Tiffany Stevens Exits IGI, Lab Appoints New Board Leader

Industry veteran Anoop Mehta is the new chairman and independent director of the IGI board.

Lee Min Seo and Ianyan Jewelry
Events & AwardsJun 11, 2025
Kering Announces Winners of Sustainability-Focused Award

The winners of the inaugural “Kering Generation Award x Jewelry” are student Lee Min Seo and China-based startup Ianyan.

De Beers desert diamonds
SourcingJun 10, 2025
De Beers Turns to Brown, Yellow Diamonds for New ‘Beacon’

“Ombré Desert Diamonds” will emphasize cream-, champagne-, and brown-colored diamonds, shades that set natural stones apart from lab grown.

Gresham grasshopper ring
AuctionsJun 10, 2025
Noonans to Auction 16th-Century Signet Ring

It's one of the “Gresham grasshopper” rings English financier Sir Thomas Gresham was known to gift to acquaintances or business associates.

Mary Chiam
CollectionsJun 10, 2025
Tabayer Names Mary Chiam as CEO

The brand also debuted its new “Zorae” collection featuring a talisman of protection and harmony inspired by a sheaf of wheat.

Lauren Johansen
MajorsJun 10, 2025
Lauren Johansen Joins Loudr

As Loudr’s new account manager, Johansen will partner with clients to craft and execute marketing strategies.

Lunar Rain cat locket
Events & AwardsJun 09, 2025
And the Winners of the 2025 Couture Design Awards Are …

Designers were recognized in 12 categories, from platinum to pearls, before the evening ended with a new, retail-focused award.

Nancy Astor tiara
AuctionsJun 09, 2025
Nancy Astor’s Cartier Tiara Sells for $1.2M

The rare turquoise and diamond jewel was the top lot at Bonhams’ June jewelry sale.

2025 CASE Award Submission Graphic
Events & AwardsJun 09, 2025
CASE Awards Now Accepting Entries For 2025

The deadline to submit is June 16.

RDI Diamonds and Lavalier Personal Jewelry Insurance Logos
MajorsJun 09, 2025
RDI Diamonds Partners With Lavalier

The diamond wholesaler is working with the insurance provider to seamlessly offer personal jewelry insurance to RDI retailers’ clients.

Harwell Godfrey Granny Square Eleanor Necklace
CollectionsJun 06, 2025
Piece of the Week: Harwell Godfrey’s ‘Granny Squares Eleanor’ Necklace

As an homage to iconic crochet blankets, the necklace features the nostalgic motif through a kaleidoscope of cabochon-cut stones.

 Laura Gallon Joaillerie “Dynasty” ring, Bijules “Compass” bolo tie, Löf “The Orbitalis” ring
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
The 12 Fresh Faces in Couture’s Design Atelier

Discover the dozen up-and-coming brands exhibiting in the Design Atelier for the first time.

Jack Abraham The Royal Ruby Collection
SourcingJun 05, 2025
A Rare Suite of Rubies Has Arrived in Las Vegas

The “Royal Ruby” Collection is a quintet of untreated rubies curated by collector Jack Abraham.

Daymond John
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Daymond John to Give Keynote at JCK Las Vegas

The entrepreneur and “Shark Tank” star will share his top tips for success.

Vaishali Banerjee and Pallavi Sharma
MajorsJun 05, 2025
Platinum Guild International Updates Leadership Team

Two existing executives have been given new roles.

Meredith Tiderington
Events & AwardsJun 05, 2025
Zillion Announces 'Women in STEM' Scholarship Recipient

Meredith Tiderington, an electrical engineering student, was selected for the award.

The Gemological Institute of America’s logo
Lab-GrownJun 04, 2025
GIA Reverting to More General Terminology for Lab-Grown Diamonds

It will quit assigning the stones specific color and clarity grades in favor of applying “new descriptive terminology.”

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy