Majors

After Falling 8% in 2018, Silver Price Expected to Rebound

MajorsApr 15, 2019

After Falling 8% in 2018, Silver Price Expected to Rebound

Silver averaged $15.71 last year but is expected to rise to nearly $17 an ounce this year, Refinitiv said.

The “Tented Maya” earrings from M. Hisae retail for $160 in sterling silver. Silver jewelry demand rose in the United States, with analysts noting the importance of the category for women looking to buy a piece of jewelry for themselves that’s $500 or under.

New York—The price of silver is expected to climb this year after dropping nearly 8 percent last year, an analyst said Thursday at the release of The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2019.

According to the survey, the average per-ounce price of silver fell by 7.8 percent to $15.71 in 2018, with prices ranging from $13.97/ounce to $17.52/ounce. The main factor impacting the silver price was the trade dispute between the United States and China, which strengthened the U.S. dollar and dragged down metal prices.

This year, Refinitiv (the new name for Thomson Reuters’ financial and risk business) predicts silver will average $16.75 an ounce, Lead Metals Analyst Johann Wiebe said.

“Silver has been lagging gold prices for a quite a while and we feel it has some catching up to do,” Wiebe explained in an email following the event. “On top of that, we expect a more favorable investment climate this year and next. This is mainly driven on a weaker macro-economic climate in the U.S. as well as China.”

In general, this is good for gold because it is so heavily investment focused, but silver will benefit too, Wiebe said. He also noted that a weaker U.S. dollar will contribute to driving the prices of all precious metals higher this year.

The GFMS team at Refinitiv researches and produces the survey for The Silver Institute, which, in addition to price, covers supply and demand for silver in investment, industrial fabrication and jewelry.

Jewelry Demand Climbs
The survey shows that globally, silver jewelry fabrication demand increased 4 percent year-over-year in 2018 to 212.5 million ounces.

While India was the standout performer—demand there rose 16 percent—the U.S. also recorded solid silver sales, with demand increasing 7 percent to hit an all-time high of 17.4 million ounces.

Wiebe said retailers in the U.S. are “still keen” to stock their cases with silver jewelry, as it generates profit margin and gives them something to offer women looking to buy a piece of jewelry for themselves for $500 or less.


The “Tented Maya” earrings pictured above on a model. Michelle Hisae Meronek, the designer behind M. Hisae, said she often thinks about how to use silver in a way that “evokes personality and play,” which the metal’s cost allows designers to do. “I’m allowed to think bigger,” she said, “while still keeping my customers in mind.”

However, the survey noted that

various silver fabricators indicated the rate of growth slowed a bit last year, as silver jewelry faces increasing competition from on-trend yellow gold.

Silver jewelry also is not immune to the one of the biggest challenges currently facing all jewelry, be it gold, diamond or gemstone: How and where do jewelers and brands connect with younger consumers?

“The difficult bit is to get ahold of the millennials today,” Wiebe said in his presentation Thursday. “How do you reach the millennials? They are constantly online.”

The results of the World Silver Survey support the findings of the annual survey the Silver Promotion Service, the Silver Institute’s marketing arm, does in concert with InStore magazine.

Released last month, the SPS/InStore survey for 2018 showed that 52 percent of U.S. retailers saw silver sales increase year-over-year. The category also continues to generate the best profit margin for jewelers, with 40 percent indicating it was their top money-maker over the holiday season.

Meanwhile, Refinitiv said overall silver demand rose 4 percent to 1.03 billion ounces last year, fueled mainly by the recovery in retail investment, including the 53 percent jump in demand for silver bars.

The increase in demand was particularly pronounced in India, where silver bar demand more than doubled, rising 115 percent.

Supply Remains Tight
Global mine supply fell for the third consecutive year, slipping 2 percent to 855.7 million ounces following supply disruptions in the U.S., Canada and Guatemala.

Output dropped 17 percent in the U.S. due mainly to several issues at Americas Silver Corp.’s Galena operations, where the mine shaft was shut for more than two weeks. Operational issues also plagued Canada, with production falling 32 percent after a fire in the smelting facility and continuous maintenance problems at Teck’s Trail operation.


These sterling silver earrings from Aimee Petkus Jewelry feature tabasco geodes and spessartine garnet on quartz (retail price $375). Designer Aimee Petkus exhibited with M. Hisae in the New Designer Gallery at the recent JA New York Spring show.


Offsetting those losses was record output in Mexico, which remains the No. 1 producer of silver in the world. The country’s 2018 output totaled 196.6 million ounces, followed by Peru (144.9 million ounces) and China (114.9).

The U.S. ranked as the ninth largest producer of silver in the world in 2018, with production totaling 28 million ounces, while Canada was No. 11 at 24.8 million ounces.

Silver scrap supply also fell by 2 percent year-over-year, due mainly to lower suppliers discouraging suppliers and consumers from recycling silver.

The rising demand and shrinking supply resulted in a physical market deficit of 29.2 million ounces, which is about 3 percent of annual demand and considered a balanced market.
Michelle Graffis the editor-in-chief at National Jeweler, directing the publication’s coverage both online and in print.

The Latest

CollectionsFeb 03, 2023
Chipotle Spices Up Valentine’s Day with Jewelry Collection

The fast-casual chain partnered with Anna Sheffield’s Bing Bang NYC brand on a capsule collection and it’s a little “extra.”

SourcingFeb 03, 2023
Greenland Ruby Names New CEO

Geologist Arnt-Eirik Rørnes has taken on the role.

EditorsFeb 03, 2023
Piece of the Week: Gismondi 1754’s ‘Marea’ Cuff

The diamond and tanzanite bracelet was inspired by the waves of the Italian gulf near Genoa.

Brought to you by
Bringing Over 130 Years of Diamond Expertise to Modern Grading

De Beers Institute of Diamonds provides the very best in diamond verification, education and diamond services.

CollectionsFeb 02, 2023
Lowe’s Is Now Selling Jewelry

The home improvement store’s website features an “Empowerment Tools” demi-fine jewelry collection.

Weekly QuizFeb 02, 2023
This Week’s Quiz
Test your jewelry news knowledge with this short test.
Take the Quiz
Events & AwardsFeb 02, 2023
Registration is Now Open for JIS Spring 2023

The show will feature a new pavilion of 30 jewelry designers and manufacturers from Surat, India.

Policies & IssuesFeb 02, 2023
Tiny Radioactive Capsule Lost in Australian Outback Found

A government official said search crews “found the needle in the haystack” when they located the capsule belonging to Rio Tinto along an 870-mile stretch of road.

Brought to you by
De Beers Institute of Diamonds Expands to Offer Education

De Beers is sharing over 130 years of experience and expertise through the De Beers Institute of Diamonds with a selection of courses.

TrendsFeb 02, 2023
Amanda’s Style File: Purple and Playful

Amanda Gizzi welcomes February with a selection of amethyst jewelry, a birthstone that “deserves its own time to shine.”

EditorsFeb 01, 2023
Designers to Watch in 2023: Boochier

Behind the playful and nostalgic brand lies deeper meaning.

Events & AwardsFeb 01, 2023
New Miami Jewelry Center Slated to Open in Q1

The Time Century Jewelry Center is located in downtown Miami’s jewelry district.

SurveysFeb 01, 2023
Consumer Confidence Falls in January

Wariness about the year ahead offset a more positive view of the current economic situation.

ColumnistsJan 31, 2023
Squirrel Spotting: How About a Word for the New Year?

It begins with a “t” and ends with a “c” and is imbued with warmth and positivity, Peter Smith writes.

Policies & IssuesJan 31, 2023
Rio Tinto Issues Apology After Radioactive Capsule Goes Missing

The tiny capsule, which is believed to have fallen out of a truck, was lost somewhere along an 870-mile stretch of desert road.

Events & AwardsJan 31, 2023
Gucci Is Getting a Gem Award

The Italian luxury brand will receive the first Gem Award for High Jewelry Excellence.

MajorsJan 31, 2023
Martin Flyer Names New VP of Business Development

Industry veteran Kevin Lane has stepped into the role.

MajorsJan 30, 2023
Researchers Uncover Bejeweled ‘Golden Boy’ Mummy

The ancient Egyptian teenager was buried 2,300 years ago with 49 amulets to guide him through the afterlife.

SurveysJan 30, 2023
Consumers Embracing Non-Traditional Ways to Mark Valentine’s Day

The NRF’s annual survey shows that consumer attitudes about how, or even whether, to celebrate Feb. 14 continue to evolve.

Events & AwardsJan 30, 2023
JA Is Searching for the Next Retail ’20 Under 40’

Nominations are open now through March 24.

MajorsJan 30, 2023
10 Jewelry News Stories You Might Have Missed

A column detailing how independent jewelers did last year and the top watch brands of 2022 were among the most-read stories last week.

FinancialsJan 27, 2023
Tiffany & Co. Shines for LVMH in 2022

Acquired in 2021, the brand’s high jewelry sales have doubled and its new “Lock” collection was an instant hit.

MajorsJan 27, 2023
Diamond Council of America Appoints Treasurer, Board Member

Executives from Fred Meyer Jewelers and Riddles Jewelers have filled the roles.

CollectionsJan 27, 2023
Piece of the Week: Heavenly Vices’ Lock Necklace

The Victorian-inspired design is a functional lock and key.

Supplier BulletinJan 26, 2023
JA New York Spring Brings the Industry Together

For over 100 years, JA New York has played an integral role in facilitating the evolution of our industry, while also honoring past traditions.

TrendsJan 26, 2023
At Vicenzaoro, Paola De Luca Gazes Into Jewelry’s Future

The trend forecaster and her guests explored unconventional jewelry designs, NFTs, AI art, and more during her Trendvision presentation.

CollectionsJan 26, 2023
NDC and Lorraine Schwartz Announce New ‘EDDI’ Class

The Emerging Designers Diamond Initiative provides diamond credit and mentorship to young brands helmed by BIPOC designers.

IndependentsJan 26, 2023
Lee Michaels Fine Jewelry Set to Open 10th Store

It will be located in San Antonio’s Alamo Quarry Market and will be Lee Michaels’ third location in the city.

×

This site uses cookies to give you the best online experience. By continuing to use & browse this site, we assume you agree to our Privacy Policy