FinancialsSep 09, 2026
Signet Jewelers to ‘Double Down’ on Blue Nile Amid Strong SalesThe jewelry retailer said it sees opportunity at higher price points, particularly in natural diamonds for bridal and fashion.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
SourcingSep 09, 2026
Fura Gems Notes ‘Remarkable’ Interest in Larger Rubies at Latest SaleThe auction, held in Bangkok, was 96 percent sold by lot, with nearly 411,000 carats of Mozambiquan rubies sold.
MajorsSep 09, 2026
Stuller’s Latest Catalog Includes Its New Demi-Fine CollectionFine Jewelry 2027-2028 has more than 900 new styles, including silver, gold-filled, gold-plated sterling silver, and vermeil jewelry.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
Policies & IssuesSep 09, 2026
8 Key Changes the FTC Made to the Jewelry Guides: A Refresher Learn more about the new terms for lab-grown diamonds and composite gemstones, and the major changes in store for precious metals jewelry.
Weekly QuizSep 03, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
TrendsSep 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: A Hot Take on September’s Birthstone With high durability and a wide range of colors to choose from, sapphires may be the ultimate birthstone, Gizzi claims.
ColumnistsSep 08, 2026
Peter Smith: Humor Is No Laughing MatterLaughter is often considered a distraction in the workplace, but it has benefits for both staff and management, Peter Smith writes.
Brought to you by
Why More Jewelry Retailers Are Hosting Turnkey Estate Buying EventsRetailers are seeking new ways to attract customers, increase traffic, and create revenue – Estate buying events are a popular solution.
MajorsSep 08, 2026
Former Tiffany & Co. Exec Joins Exemplar Luxury GroupGretchen Koback Pursel is the new chief people officer at the company formerly known as Saks Global.
IndependentsSep 04, 2026
Orloff Jewelers Will Soon Unveil a Bigger, Better LocationThe California jeweler is renovating its store in Fresno, with plans to show off the new space in December.
CollectionsSep 04, 2026
Chelsea Gabrielle Transforms Pilates Reformer Springs Into Ring A lifelong practitioner of Pilates, Gabrielle looked to the springs’ tension and suspension when creating this ring, our Piece of the Week.
Events & AwardsSep 04, 2026
JCK Industry Fund Accepting 2027 ApplicationsThe deadline to apply is Nov. 13.
AuctionsSep 04, 2026
Christie's Names New Global Head of WatchesThe auction house has promoted Remi Guillemin, formerly its head of watches for the Americas and EMEA, to the role.
EditorsSep 03, 2026
Q&A: Simon G.’s CEO on Why He Won’t Use AI for Jewelry DesignZaven Ghanimian discussed the value of human craftsmanship and where the implementation of artificial intelligence does work.
Events & AwardsSep 03, 2026
Here Are the First Recipients of Nina Pugliese Memorial Scholarship Jewelers of America also revealed the recipients of the Seymour & Evelyn Holtzman Bench Scholarship and its own scholarship programs.
WatchesSep 03, 2026
Robert Pattinson Joins Jaeger-LeCoultre as Brand AmbassadorThe British actor, known for his roles in “Twilight” and “The Odyssey,” will star in a campaign for the Master Control Chronometre.
CollectionsSep 03, 2026
Sydney Evan Celebrates 25 Years With 4 New CollectionsThe “Confetti Disco,” “Champagne Cheers,” “Tuxedo,” and “Classic Punk” jewelry collections each capture a distinct spirit of celebration.
CrimeSep 02, 2026
CA Jeweler Gets 5 Years in ‘Phantom Rolex’ Ponzi SchemeNelson Holdo of Newport Beach pleaded guilty to multiple counts of felony grand theft and writing bad checks and was sentenced Monday.
AuctionsSep 02, 2026
If You Love Cats, This Jewelry Auction Is for YouCat ladies of the jewelry world, unite. Sandy Lerner’s “significant” collection of cat jewelry and other objects is going up for auction.
MajorsSep 02, 2026
Messika Names Former Omega Exec as New President, CEO of AmericasArnaud Michon, the former Omega USA President, will now lead Messika’s Americas region during its international development.
Events & AwardsSep 02, 2026
Emerald’s New Owner Introduces ‘Glitter in the Grove’The branding references the back-to-back jewelry shows that new parent company Forge will host in Miami's Coconut Grove this November.
AuctionsSep 01, 2026
UK Woman Uncovers Rare Patek Philippe Watch in Mom’s Jewelry BoxThe stainless steel Patek Philippe “Calatrava” watch from the 1930s sold for nearly $80,000 at a recent Hansons Cornwall auction.
ColumnistsSep 01, 2026
Your Jewelry Marketing Has a Bridal ProblemEngagement rings are important but don’t ignore the customers who are buying jewelry “just because,” Emmanuel Raheb writes.
MajorsSep 01, 2026
Kering Names New Pomellato, DoDo CEOsFormer Pomellato CEO Sabina Belli has been named president of Kering Italia amid a shakeup of Kering's new Jewelry division.
MajorsSep 01, 2026
Anne Marie Shulman Joins GPA GlobalThe veteran luxury packaging executive was appointed to help the company grow its North American business.
CrimeAug 31, 2026
$4M Van Cleef & Arpels Diamond Necklace Snatched From Vienna Museum Once the property of an Egyptian queen, the necklace was part of a larger exhibition of VCA jewelry at the Museum of Applied Arts (MAK).
GradingAug 31, 2026
GIA, Gübelin Gem Lab Confirm New Paraíba Tourmaline Deposit in EthiopiaThe labs’ separate investigations each determined that the East African country is producing copper-bearing tourmaline.
