CrimeDec 04, 2025
Man Arrested After Allegedly Swallowing Fabergé Egg PendantThe man was charged with theft, accused of ingesting the necklace while in a jewelry store in Auckland, New Zealand.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
Supplier BulletinDec 04, 2025
Introducing Shop Natural Day: A New Movement Celebrating Natural DiamondsSponsored by De Beers Group
WatchesDec 04, 2025
Casio Shrinks its G-Shock WatchThe classic 5600 series G-Shock has been scaled down to about a tenth of its size, becoming a fully functioning watch ring.
Brought to you by
Impacting Tomorrow TodayHow Jewelers of America’s 20 Under 40 are leading to ensure a brighter future for the jewelry industry.
Events & AwardsDec 04, 2025
AGA Announces 2026 Tucson Speaker LineupThe association’s annual conference and gala will take place Feb. 4, 2026, during the Tucson gem shows.
Weekly QuizDec 04, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
Events & AwardsDec 04, 2025
CBG Announces Speaker Lineup for 2026 Miami Event The January show will include a workshop for jewelry retailers on implementing AI to strengthen their businesses.
TrendsDec 03, 2025
Miley Cyrus Debuts Edgy Engagement RingFellow musician Maxx Morando proposed to the star with a chunky, cushion-cut diamond ring designed by Jacquie Aiche.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
Policies & IssuesDec 03, 2025
Costco Joins Growing Wave of Retailers Suing for Tariff Refunds The retailer, which sells billions in fine jewelry and watches, is suing the Trump administration and U.S. Customs and Border Patrol.
SurveysDec 03, 2025
A Record 202.9M Shoppers Turned Out Thanksgiving WeekendBlack Friday is still the most popular shopping day over the five-day holiday weekend, as per the National Retail Federation’s survey.
AuctionsDec 03, 2025
Fabergé’s 'The Winter Egg' Achieves Record $30MThe historic egg, crafted for Russia's ruling family prior to the revolution, was the star of Christie’s recent auction of works by Fabergé.
FinancialsDec 02, 2025
Signet Jewelers’ Q3 Sales Up Amid Continued Focus on Lower Price PointsThe retailer offered more fashion jewelry priced under $1,000, including lab-grown diamond and men’s jewelry.
CollectionsDec 02, 2025
Briony Raymond Introduces First FragranceThe eau de parfum is held in a fluted glass bottle that mirrors the decor of the brand’s atelier, and its cap is a nod to its “Sloan” ring.
SourcingDec 02, 2025
Petra Diamonds Elevates Interim CEOs to Permanent StatusVivek Gadodia and Juan Kemp, who’ve been serving as interim co-CEOs since February, will continue to lead the diamond mining company.
MajorsDec 02, 2025
Lee Krombholz Takes Over as Chair of MJSA Education FoundationIn addition, a slate of new officers and trustees were appointed to the board.
SourcingDec 02, 2025
Brendan Laurs Honored With 2025 Bonanno AwardLaurs is the editor-in-chief of Gem-A’s The Journal of Gemmology and an expert on the formation of colored gemstone deposits.
CrimeDec 01, 2025
Fourth Man Charged in Louvre Jewelry HeistThe man, who has a criminal history, is suspected of being the fourth member of the four-man crew that carried out the heist.
AuctionsDec 01, 2025
Christie’s Presents ‘Splendor & Style’ CollectionThe single-owner collection includes one of the largest offerings of Verdura jewels ever to appear at auction, said Christie’s.
IndependentsDec 01, 2025
Lustig Jewelers’ New Owner Is a Fellow Chicago JewelerMichael Helfer has taken the reins, bringing together two historic Chicago jewelry names.
MajorsDec 01, 2025
PGI Debuts Platinum-Filled Holiday Gift GuideThe guide features all-new platinum designs for the holiday season by brands like Harwell Godfrey, Ritani, and Suna.
FinancialsNov 26, 2025
Movado CEO Talks Tariffs, Growing Interest in Accessible Luxury WatchesDuring its Q3 call, CEO Efraim Grinberg discussed the deal to lower tariffs on Swiss-made watches, watch market trends, and more.
TrendsNov 26, 2025
Piece of the Week: Rosior’s Pumpkin RingRosior’s high jewelry cocktail ring with orange sapphires and green diamonds is the perfect Thanksgiving accessory.
IndependentsNov 26, 2025
Greenwich St. Jewelers Launches Colorful Holiday CampaignThe “Embrace Your True Colors” campaign features jewels with a vibrant color palette and poetry by Grammy-nominated artist Aja Monet.
MajorsNov 26, 2025
Serafino Consoli Names New VP of Sales, Brand Development for the AmericasLuxury veteran Alejandro Cuellar has stepped into the role at the Italian fine jewelry brand.
Events & AwardsNov 26, 2025
Grandview Klein Presents 4 Scholarships in NamibiaThe company gave awards to four students at the Namibia University of Science & Technology, including one who is a Grandview Klein employee.
IndependentsNov 25, 2025
Pearl Stringer Margaret Hoisik DiesShe is remembered as an artist who loved her craft and was devoted to her faith, her friends, and her family.
SourcingNov 25, 2025
Finestar Opens Diamond Manufacturing Facility in JohannesburgIt joins the company’s other manufacturing facilities globally, including in India, Botswana, and Namibia.
