ColumnistsApr 09, 2026
Jewelry Demand Isn’t Stronger, Prices Are Just Higher Jewelers who misinterpret the state of the jewelry market risk employing the wrong retail strategy, cautions columnist Sherry Smith.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
MajorsApr 09, 2026
Tiffany & Co. Promotes Nathalie Verdeille to SVP, Chief Artistic OfficerIn her newly expanded role, she will continue to oversee the jewelry category, as well as watches, home, and accessories.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Jacob & Co. Rolls Out Its Sequel to ‘The Godfather’ Musical Watch“The Godfather II” watch plays two melodies from the mob film’s score, “The Godfather’s Waltz” and “The Godfather Love Theme.”
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
Events & AwardsApr 09, 2026
JCK Announces Jesse Itzler as 2026 Keynote SpeakerOrganizers have also introduced the new JCK Talks Signature Series, as well as an offering of watch-focused workshops and lectures.
Weekly QuizApr 09, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
SourcingApr 09, 2026
AGA To Honor ‘Quiet Leadership’ With New AwardThe Alan Hodgkinson Medal recognizes gemologists who are consistently generous with their time and expertise.
WatchesApr 09, 2026
Oris Names New CEO, CFOThe Swiss watchmaker is changing up its executive leadership team as part of a restructuring.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
CollectionsApr 08, 2026
Hearts On Fire Celebrates 30 Years By Asking a QuestionThe “What’s Your Signature?” campaign invites women to think about how they see themselves.
SourcingApr 08, 2026
Sale of 42-Carat Blue Diamond Gives Petra a Boost in Q3The big diamond’s sale added to the company’s revenue though the market remains “challenging” overall, particularly for smaller goods.
Events & AwardsApr 08, 2026
AGS Confluence Returns with AI, Sustainability SessionsRob Bates of The Jewelry Wire will also moderate a panel on the state of the jewelry industry during the virtual event.
Events & AwardsApr 08, 2026
TJS to Honor 2 Longtime Former Stuller EmployeesThe Jewelry Symposium will honor two industry veterans with lifetime achievement awards at its upcoming May event.
TrendsApr 08, 2026
Amanda’s Style File: April’s Brilliant Birthstone With their durability, brilliance, and beauty, diamonds are the perfect stone for everyday birthstone jewelry.
MajorsApr 07, 2026
QVC Group’s Latest Filing Calls Its Future Into QuestionThe retailer failed to file its annual report on time and said it may issue a going concern warning.
ColumnistsApr 07, 2026
Peter Smith: A Tip to the Post Office on Workplace CultureSmith recounts a recent trip to the post office that included an uncomfortable, embarrassing, and public exchange between two employees.
GradingApr 07, 2026
GIA CFO David Tearle to Retire in June John Cowley, who has more than 30 years of experience, is succeeding Tearle as the lab’s chief financial officer.
CollectionsApr 07, 2026
Nerd Out Over Gemology Geek’s First Jewelry CollectionFounder Erica Silverglide has designed 35 colorful pieces set with fluorescing gemstones for the brand's first finished jewelry offering.
CollectionsApr 07, 2026
Ukrainian Jewelers Highlighted In New Book“Ukrainian Jewelry | Contemporary Jewelry and Art Jewelry from Ukraine” features 33 contemporary Ukrainian designers and studios.
CollectionsApr 06, 2026
Fope’s New Jewelry Debuts Are Golden“The Golden Now” campaign celebrates the here and now with the brand’s signature styles and a selection of its new pieces.
MajorsApr 06, 2026
Kecia Caffie, Corinne Bentzen No Longer With Signet JewelersSignet confirmed that Caffie, president of Zales and Banter, and Bentzen, who headed Blue Nile, have left the company.
CollectionsApr 06, 2026
Historian Tanzy Ward Pens Book on Black Victorians’ JewelryThe antique jewelry dealer talks about the importance of including Black Americans in jewelry history and preserving their stories.
SourcingApr 06, 2026
Gemfields Reports $51M Loss in 2025Both its mines faced challenges last year, from operational issues to disruptions in the market.
CollectionsApr 03, 2026
Taylor Swift’s ‘Elizabeth Taylor’ Video Puts Jewelry Front and CenterIconic pieces, like the Mike Todd Diamond Tiara, appear in the superstar’s new music video for her song inspired by the actress.
MajorsApr 03, 2026
Saks Global Says It Will Emerge From Bankruptcy This SummerThe luxury retailer, which went Chapter 11 in January, announced Thursday that it has secured $500 million in exit financing.
Events & AwardsApr 03, 2026
JCK Luxury, NouvelleBox Partner on New Designer BallroomThe NouvelleBox ballroom will feature independent jewelry designers, including Lene Vibe, Wyld Box Jewelry, and Kiaia Limited.
CollectionsApr 03, 2026
Buddha Mama Brings Its ‘Moon’ Locket To DallasThe one-of-a-kind locket, our Piece of the Week, opens to reveal three hidden images to keep close to your heart.
MajorsApr 02, 2026
Pandora Opens New Canadian Distribution Center Amid Tariff ConcernsThe new facility was also designed to better serve its growing customer base in Canada.
