MajorsNov 13, 2025
Vahan Jewelry Founder Leon ‘Sacha’ Der Calousdian Dies at 85The third-generation jeweler is remembered as a passionate creative with a love of art, traveling and sailboat racing.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
CrimeNov 12, 2025
Father, Son Jewelers in Chicago Victims in Double Homicide JSA and Cook County Crime Stoppers are both offering rewards for information leading to the arrest of the suspect or suspects involved.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
‘Mellon Blue’ Diamond Sells for $7M Less Than It Did a Decade AgoA buyer paid $25.6 million for the diamond at Christie’s on Tuesday. In 2014, Sotheby’s sold the same stone for $32.6 million.
Brought to you by
Roseco Releases New Full-Line CatalogRoseco’s 704-page catalog showcases new lab-grown diamonds, findings, tools & more—available in print or interactive digital editions.
AuctionsNov 12, 2025
Historic Rolex Oyster Fetches $1.7M at Sotheby’sMercedes Gleitze famously wore the watch in her 1927 swim across the English Channel, a pivotal credibility moment for the watchmaker.
Weekly QuizNov 13, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
GradingNov 12, 2025
It’s Time: GIA’s Express Holiday Service Is Back GIA is offering next-day services for natural, colorless diamonds submitted to its labs in New York and Carlsbad.
MajorsNov 10, 2025
Jewelers Focus on Love, Joy In 2025 Holiday Campaigns Tiffany & Co., David Yurman, and Pandora have launched holiday campaigns depicting their jewelry as symbols of affection and happiness.
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America Aligns New Mission to Create Meaningful Impact for MembersFrom educational programs, advocacy, and recent MJSA affiliation, Jewelers of America drives progress that elevates businesses of all sizes.
SurveysNov 10, 2025
5 Things Retailers Should Know About Holiday Shoppers This YearThe National Retail Federation is bullish on the holidays, forecasting retail sales to exceed $1 trillion this year.
AuctionsNov 10, 2025
300+ Colored Diamonds Up for Auction at Christie’sLate collector Eddy Elzas assembled “The Rainbow Collection,” which is offered as a single lot and estimated to fetch up to $3 million.
EditorsNov 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: An MVP’s Sapphire Tennis Necklace At the 2025 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto sported a custom necklace made by California retailer Happy Jewelers.
IndependentsNov 07, 2025
Foundrae’s New Palm Beach Location Is a ‘Golden Solarium’The brand’s seventh location combines Foundrae’s symbolic vocabulary with motifs from Florida’s natural surroundings.
FinancialsNov 07, 2025
Watches of Switzerland’s H1 Sales Up 8%The retailer also shared an update on the impact of tariffs on watch customers.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
Pink Tourmaline Bracelet, Emerald Suite Take Top Spectrum Honors Pink and purple stones were popular in the AGTA’s design competition this year, as were cameos and ocean themes.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Greenwich St. Jewelers Hosts Raffle Supporting Food RescueAll proceeds from the G. St x Jewel Boxing raffle will go to City Harvest, which works to end hunger in New York City.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Cornell’s Jewelers Names New PresidentCourtney Cornell is part of the third generation to lead the Rochester, New York-based jeweler.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
De Beers’ Production, Sales Increase in Q3 De Beers also announced more changes in its upper ranks ahead of parent company Anglo American’s pending sale of the company.
WatchesNov 05, 2025
Shinola President Steps Down Just as He Starts Former Signet CEO Mark Light will remain president of Shinola until a replacement for Ulrich Wohn is found.
AuctionsNov 05, 2025
Taylor Swift’s Engagement Ring Designer Makes Her Auction DebutKindred Lubeck of Artifex has three rings she designed with Anup Jogani in Sotheby’s upcoming Gem Drop sale.
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Pandora Posts Modest Q3 Sales Growth Amid ‘Weak’ Consumer Sentiment The company focused on marketing in the third quarter and introduced two new charm collections, “Pandora Talisman” and “Pandora Minis.”
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Brilliant Earth’s Q3 Sales Climb 10%The jewelry retailer raised its full-year guidance, with CFO Jeff Kuo describing the company as “very well positioned” for the holidays.
Policies & IssuesNov 04, 2025
Supreme Court to Hear Tariffs Case WednesdayAhead of the hearing, two industry organizations co-signed an amicus brief urging the court to declare Trump’s tariffs unlawful.
MajorsNov 04, 2025
Danny Clark to Become Stuller CEO, Succeeding Matt StullerStuller COO Belit Myers will take on the additional role of president, with all changes effective at the start of 2026.
ColumnistsNov 04, 2025
Peter Smith: What Do Birds Have to Do With the Price of Gold? Smith cautions retailers against expending too much energy on things they can’t control, like the rising price of gold.
TrendsNov 04, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Fall Colors for November BirthdaysCitrine and topaz are birthstones fit for fall as the leaves change color and the holiday season approaches.
IndependentsNov 04, 2025
Weston Jewelers Heads to Fort LauderdaleThe family-owned jeweler will open its fourth store in Florida in late 2027.
CrimeNov 03, 2025
Men Dressed as Construction Workers Burglarize Jeweler’s Home The NYPD is looking for three men who stole a safe and jewelry valued at $3.2 million from the home of a jeweler in Jamaica Hills, Queens.
