CrimeMar 23, 2026
NYPD Looking for 3 Jewelry Store Robbery SuspectsThe group of women allegedly robbed two Catbird stores and one Gorjana location on the afternoon of March 9.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
FinancialsMar 23, 2026
Movado’s Q4 Sales Rise As Demand Grows From Younger Shoppers, WomenMovado CEO Efraim Grinberg noted continued strength in the fashion watch and accessible luxury segments in the U.S.
TrendsMar 23, 2026
Marco Bicego’s New Campaign Showcases ‘The Art of Craft’After celebrating 25 years in 2025, the campaign marks a new chapter for the jewelry brand with the message that “Identity Creates Value.”
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
Events & AwardsMar 23, 2026
These Watch Brands Are Heading to Couture This YearCouture and Time to Watches announced the watch brands, from big names to independents, attendees will see at the show.
Weekly QuizMar 19, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
FinancialsMar 20, 2026
Macy’s Turnaround Plans Shows Promise, Boosted by Bloomingdale’sPlus, why Saks Global’s bankruptcy may have given Bloomingdale’s an edge.
AuctionsMar 20, 2026
Sotheby's, De Beers Unveil ‘Jwaneng 28.88’ DiamondThe flawless, Type IIa stone is estimated to achieve up to $2.8 million at the auction house’s high jewelry sale in April.
Brought to you by
Is This You? Every Jeweler Has This Problem; We Have the Solution.Every jeweler faces the same challenge: helping customers protect what they love. Here’s the solution designed for today’s jewelry business.
TrendsMar 20, 2026
‘Frankenstein’ Costume Designer Is Bejeweled In Brooches for Oscars WinCostume designer Kate Hawley wore three archival Tiffany & Co. brooches, our Pieces of the Week, while accepting her first Oscar.
FinancialsMar 19, 2026
Signet Jewelers to Close 100 Stores, Shutter James Allen BannerThe jewelry retailer announced changes to its store network and brand portfolio during its fourth-quarter earnings call.
SurveysMar 19, 2026
NRF Forecasts 4% Retail Sales Growth in 2026From a weaker labor market to inflation, NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews gave insight on what retailers can expect this year.
AuctionsMar 19, 2026
26-Carat Diamond Tops $1M at AuctionThe historic stone, which sold at Elmwood’s in London, is the largest white diamond to be offered on the U.K. market in more than a decade.
Events & AwardsMar 19, 2026
JCK Rocks To Ride With NellyThree-time Grammy award-winning artist Nelly is set to perform at the annual event at Tao Beach in Las Vegas on May 31.
AuctionsMar 18, 2026
Collection of the ‘Severely Beautiful’ Lady Wardington Fetches $161KThe model and fashion editor’s gold evening bags were the top lots at the London sale, going for more than $25,000 each.
PodcastsMar 18, 2026
Episode 3: An Interview With Jewelry Designer Johnny NelsonFresh off winning the David Yurman Gem Awards Grant, Nelson discusses the ring that launched his career and his plans for the future.
SourcingMar 18, 2026
Lucara Recovers Nearly 37-Carat Blue DiamondThe “stunning” Type IIb stone was found via x-ray technology at its Karowe mine in Botswana.
MajorsMar 18, 2026
Stuller Releases New Edition of Jewelry Education Book“The Basics of Jewelry” has been updated to include modern topics and visuals.
Events & AwardsMar 17, 2026
The Best Moments From the 2026 Gem Awards Held just before the Oscars, the jewelry industry’s big awards show had its share of standout jewelry, gowns, and acceptance speeches.
SourcingMar 17, 2026
Cruzeiro Mine Debuts ‘Winter Tourmaline’The Brazilian mine’s new collection features cabochons in soft, muted shades like silver and lilac.
TrendsMar 17, 2026
Natalie Portman Is Tiffany & Co.’s New AmbassadorThe Academy Award-winning actress stars in Tiffany & Co.’s latest commercial, which debuted Sunday night during the Oscars.
MajorsMar 17, 2026
Kering Establishes Jewelry Division, Appoints CEOThe organizational change follows Kering’s promise of a transformation after declining sales in 2025.
EditorsMar 16, 2026
2026 Oscars Jewelry: One Necklace After AnotherNatalie Francisco rounds up the top Oscars jewels, including Rose Byrne’s Taffin necklace with a more than 20-carat yellow-brown diamond.
WatchesMar 16, 2026
TAG Heuer Has a New CEOBéatrice Goasglas has been with TAG Heuer since 2018. She is the first woman to head the 166-year-old, LVMH-owned watch brand.
AuctionsMar 16, 2026
Bonhams Paris To Offer Antique, Signed Jewels The live fine jewelry auction will take place later this week, showcasing antique pieces, rare gemstones, and signed jewels.
CollectionsMar 13, 2026
A Trio of Jewels from the 3 Gem Award Nominees for Jewelry DesignOur Pieces of the Week honor the 2026 nominees for the Gem Award for Jewelry Design, Silvia Furmanovich, Cece Fein-Hughes, and Catherine Sarr.
WatchesMar 13, 2026
Citizen, Vera Wang to Launch Watch CollectionThe 24-piece watch collection is set to debut in spring 2027.
SourcingMar 13, 2026
Andrea Pooler Joins Third-Generation Diamond Company as COO Pooler, who has more than 25 years’ experience in jewelry, is now chief operating officer of Modani Jewels, Soham Diamonds, and SNJ Creations.
