SurveysOct 16, 2026
How Inflation, Gas Prices Will Affect Holiday Sales The NRF is expecting holiday sales to increase this year, but consumers and retailers alike are facing Grinch-like headwinds.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
CollectionsOct 16, 2026
Christina Puchi’s Earrings Hold the UniverseOur Piece of the Week gathers the planets, represented by a variety of colored gemstones, in a pair of 14-karat yellow gold earrings.
MajorsOct 16, 2026
Katy Chen Appointed Executive Vice President of Graff USA Chen, who worked at Cartier and Tiffany & Co., will lead retail sales and operations for the luxury jeweler’s 11 U.S. stores.
Brought to you by
Meet Gemology’s Next Generation Microscope: GIA® Gemolite® NXT Professional EditionExperience gemstones with greater precision and comfort than ever before.
ColumnistsOct 15, 2026
Peter Smith: What Is the Culture REP?It’s a term Smith coined and felt compelled to share following a bad experience with an aborted flight and an unfeeling flight attendant.
Weekly QuizOct 15, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
WatchesOct 15, 2026
Stephanie Gottlieb’s New Movado Watches Are Made for Your Wrist StackMovado teamed up with the New York-based fine jewelry designer on a new collection of Movado Museum Velura watches.
SourcingOct 15, 2026
Signet Jewelers, Richemont May Join Bidder for De Beers, Report SaysThe two companies are reportedly in talks to join the Global Diamond Consortium, led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny, as per Bloomberg.
Brought to you by
Your Piece Could Be the One Editors Talk AboutSubmit your pieces for a chance to win in this year's competition.
CollectionsOct 15, 2026
Wolf x Marla Aaron's New Jewelry Box Is for Some (Not All) of Your ThingsThe “Some of the Things” box follows the two larger “Everything” box designs with the look and function of antique sewing and toolboxes.
IndependentsOct 14, 2026
Retailer Hall of Fame 2026: Coleman and Mitchell ClarkFourth-generation jewelers Coleman and Mitchell Clark exemplify the best qualities of their predecessors: humility, modesty, and confidence.
SourcingOct 14, 2026
Manuel Marcial de Gomar, ‘The Emerald Whisperer,’ Dies at 90The gem hunter, whose 70-year career was defined by adventure and exploration, is remembered for his steadfast faith and sense of wonder.
FinancialsOct 14, 2026
LVMH’s Jewelry Brands Turn in ‘Very Good’ Performance in Q3 Tiffany & Co. continued its full-scale store renovation project while Bulgari’s high jewelry collection generated “record-breaking revenue.”
Events & AwardsOct 14, 2026
Chicago Responsible Jewelry Conference Releases 2026 ProgramThis year’s sessions feature leading voices from human rights, legal, and conservation organizations.
MajorsOct 13, 2026
David Webb Owner Purchases Lugano JewelryThe high-end jewelry retailer was sold to private investment firm Middle West Partners and a group of longtime clients.
Lab-GrownOct 13, 2026
Stephanie Gottlieb Takes Lab-Grown Diamond Collection WholesaleThe jewelry designer has partnered with Sofer Jewelry to distribute her 85-piece lab-grown diamond collection.
IndependentsOct 13, 2026
Retailer Hall of Fame 2026: Sean DunnDunn, this year’s Single-Store Independent inductee, is passionate about innovation and telling the story of natural diamonds.
AuctionsOct 13, 2026
Christie's Geneva To Auction 'Bulgari Pink' DiamondThe 24-carat fancy intense pink diamond ring could fetch up to $18 million at the November sale.
IndependentsOct 13, 2026
Greenwich St. Jewelers’ New Candle Smells Like HomeThe “Island Jewel” candle honors New York City and Puerto Rico and raises money for the island’s water relief efforts.
TechnologyOct 13, 2026
GemFind Is a New JA Member Benefit Partner The partnership will give JA members access to preferred pricing, exclusive benefits, technology solutions, education, and resources.
SurveysOct 09, 2026
These Will Be the 10 Busiest Days for In-Store Shopping This Holiday SeasonStores should expect to see the most customers on Nov. 27, and Christmas week is expected to be hectic too, as Dec. 25 falls on a Friday.
CollectionsOct 09, 2026
Elisa Solomon Collabs With Serendipity 3 on ‘Frozen Hot Chocolate’ CharmThe charm, our Piece of the Week, features brown diamond frozen hot chocolate topped with white diamond whipped cream and a ruby straw.
AuctionsOct 09, 2026
8-Carat Blue Diamond Goes Unsold at UK Jewelry Auction The top lot of Elmwood’s recent fine jewelry sale in London was a 1.84-carat, D color Tiffany & Co. solitaire diamond ring.
WatchesOct 09, 2026
Movado to Sell Majority Stake in Ebel for $66.5MThe watch company agreed to sell a 95 percent interest to a group comprised of F.P. Journe, Chanel, and Swiss watch exec Pierre Jacques.
Policies & IssuesOct 08, 2026
Third Wave of IEEPA Tariff Refunds Begins This round of tariff refunds is for importers that have sued over IEEPA tariffs in the Court of International Trade and won.
CollectionsOct 08, 2026
Brent Neale’s New Collection Goes ‘Back to Basics’It revisits the brand’s most requested silhouettes, from "Pillow"-set necklaces and bracelets to "Signature"-set rings and earrings.
SourcingOct 08, 2026
Ethical Gem Fair Heads Back to BrooklynThe trade-only event includes buying opportunities as well as educational sessions on artisanal mining, the new Paraíba source, and more.
Events & AwardsOct 08, 2026
Pattons Fine Jewelry Sweeps Local Design ContestAra Chanakian, a jeweler at Pattons, took home top honors in every category at Jewelers of Louisiana’s annual jewelry design competition.
