CrimeFeb 13, 2026
JSA Offering $10K Reward in Nancy Guthrie Case Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, was abducted just as the Tucson gem shows were starting.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
Editors' Picks
Sponsored by
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
CollectionsFeb 13, 2026
A ‘Rosebud’ Necklace for Valentine’s DayPaul Morelli’s “Rosebud” necklace, our Piece of the Week, uses 18-karat rose, green, and white gold to turn the symbol of love into jewelry.
MajorsFeb 13, 2026
JFC Announces New BeneficiariesThe nonprofit has welcomed four new grantees for 2026.
Brought to you by
The MJSA Mentor & Apprenticeship Program: Attracting & Training the Next Generation of Bench JewelersLaunched in 2023, the program will help the passing of knowledge between generations and alleviate the shortage of bench jewelers.
MajorsFeb 12, 2026
These 8 Saks Fifth Avenue Stores Are ClosingParent company Saks Global is also closing nearly all Saks Off 5th locations, a Neiman Marcus store, and 14 personal styling suites.
Weekly QuizFeb 12, 2026
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
CollectionsFeb 12, 2026
British Museum Raises $5M to Keep Jewel Linked to Henry VIII, Katherine of AragonIt is believed the 24-karat heart-shaped enameled pendant was made for an event marking the betrothal of Princess Mary in 1518.
SourcingFeb 12, 2026
‘Cotton Candy’ Necklace, 35-Carat Kunzite Win 2025 ‘Buyer’s Choice’ AwardsThe AGTA Spectrum and Cutting Edge “Buyer’s Choice” award winners were announced at the Spectrum Awards Gala last week.
Brought to you by
How Jewelers Can Fight Back Against Cell JammersCriminals are using cell jammers to disable alarms, but new technology like JamAlert™ can stop them.
Events & AwardsFeb 12, 2026
Kering Opens Entries for 2026 Sustainability-Focused AwardThe “Kering Generation Award x Jewelry” returns for its second year with “Second Chance, First Choice” as its theme.
TrendsFeb 11, 2026
Halle Berry’s Retro Engagement Ring Is a Sapphire-Set StunnerSourced by For Future Reference Vintage, the yellow gold ring has a round center stone surrounded by step-cut sapphires.
MajorsFeb 11, 2026
Francesca’s Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy AgainThe clothing and accessories chain announced last month it would be closing all of its stores.
CollectionsFeb 11, 2026
Zales Turns Sweethearts Into Jewelry for Valentine’s Day CollectionThe “Zales x Sweethearts” collection features three mystery heart charms engraved with classic sayings seen on the Valentine’s Day candies.
TechnologyFeb 11, 2026
Gemvision Symposium 2026 Slated for AprilThe event will include panel discussions, hands-on demonstrations of new digital manufacturing tools, and a jewelry design contest.
Events & AwardsFeb 11, 2026
TJS Announces Roundtable, Launches New AppRegistration is now open for The Jewelry Symposium, set to take place in Detroit from May 16-19.
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
At Meeting in South Africa, Support for Natural Diamonds Picks Up Steam Namibia has formally signed the Luanda Accord, while two key industry organizations pledged to join the Natural Diamond Council.
TrendsFeb 10, 2026
Bad Bunny Wears Football-Shaped ‘Desert Diamond’ for Halftime PerformanceLady Gaga, Cardi B, and Karol G also went with diamond jewelry for Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show honoring Puerto Rico.
SurveysFeb 10, 2026
Shoppers to Spend Big on Jewelry This Valentine’s Day, Says NRFJewelry is expected to be the No. 1 gift this year in terms of dollars spent.
FinancialsFeb 10, 2026
Kering Plans Transformation as 2025 Sales Sink 13%As star brand Gucci continues to struggle, the luxury titan plans to announce a new roadmap to return to growth.
SourcingFeb 10, 2026
AGTA To Debut ‘Stuller Color of the Year’ Spectrum Awards CategoryThe new category asks entrants for “exceptional” interpretations of the supplier’s 2026 color of the year, which is “Signature Red.”
Policies & IssuesFeb 09, 2026
U.S., India Trade Deal One Step Closer to Being FinalizedThe White House issued an official statement on the deal, which will eliminate tariffs on loose natural diamonds and gemstones from India.
Events & AwardsFeb 09, 2026
JA Now Accepting Entries for 2026 CASE AwardsEntries for the jewelry design competition will be accepted through March 20.
TrendsFeb 09, 2026
These 14 Jewels Will Melt Your Heart This Valentine’s DayFrom heart motifs to pink pearls, Valentine’s Day is filled with jewelry imbued with love.
CrimeFeb 06, 2026
Florida Man Sentenced After Selling Fake Native American Jewelry for a Decade Prosecutors say the man attended arts and craft fairs claiming he was a third-generation jeweler who was a member of the Pueblo tribe.
FinancialsFeb 06, 2026
Pandora’s North America GM Departs Amid Executive ChangesNew CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier shared her priorities for the Danish jewelry company this year as part of its fourth-quarter results.
TrendsFeb 06, 2026
Margot Robbie, Jacob Elordi Wear Matching Cece Jewellery Signet RingsOur Piece of the Week picks are these bespoke rings the “Wuthering Heights” stars have been spotted wearing during the film’s press tour.
MajorsFeb 05, 2026
Pandora to Begin Selling Platinum-Plated JewelryThe introduction of platinum plating will reduce its reliance on silver amid volatile price swings, said Pandora.
SourcingFeb 05, 2026
De Beers Lowers Production Guidance for 2026, Anglo Mulls Another WritedownIt would be the third impairment charge in three years on De Beers Group, which continues to grapple with a “challenging” diamond market.
