AuctionsOct 24, 2025
Bonhams Under New Ownership, Top Executives ReplacedLondon-based investment firm Pemberton Asset Management acquired the auction house for an undisclosed amount.
IndependentsSep 27, 2017
Squirrel Spotting: Products and Sales Results—The Fallacy
Jewelers shouldn’t expect sales to increase when they have the wrong product in their showcases, Peter Smith writes.
Peter Smith has more than 30 years of experience building wholesale and retail sales teams. He currently is president of Vibhor Gems.
Sales results are a function of “stuff” that has absolutely nothing to do with wishing for better sales results. It does not come from good intentions, management pressure, or--the best fallacy of all-- from the fact that it’s “not last year” and, as such, we ought to see sales increase.
We’ve all done it. Sat down at the end of the year, or the quarter, or the month, and put pen to paper, white board or spreadsheet a number that we expect to hit for the coming period. The goals usually come from someone with lots of leverage and everyone else follows along, even if they know the goals to be delusional.
It is a rare company (unless they are a public organization in the crosshairs of Wall Street analysts and prognosticators) that is bold enough to forecast a sales decline. How can we? The price of everything else has gone up. So how can we plan for a scenario that results in less business?
And yet, many companies see sales declines year over year and are left to ponder, as the Talking Heads did in the 1980s, “Well, how did I get here?”
Sales forecasting is an inexact science. It is filled with many variables and no matter how many scenarios you plan for, two things will come to pass:
1. You will be surprised by something that was difficult, or even impossible, to predict; and
2. You will have fallen victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow,” the “planning fallacy.”
Sales forecasting is a hugely important part of our businesses; we need context, a frame of reference, a check and balance, etc. What ultimately determines sales results (whether good or bad), however, is 100 percent a function of doing the right stuff, or doing the wrong stuff.
And paying a lot more attention to what that “stuff” looks like will more positively impact sales results than “running the numbers” until you’re blue in the face, or holding meeting after meeting designed to motivate, threaten or cajole salespeople into doing what they might not have the tools, the resources, or the wiring to do.
One of the biggest contributors to the sales delusion is, of course, our products. And, unfortunately, most companies believe that their products are better than their customers believe them to be. We know that to be true because
dated and non-performing inventory is an industry epidemic on the retail and supplier side.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
“If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.”I know of a number of companies on the supplier side that could chart a much healthier course but for the millions of dollars of non-performing inventory sitting in retailers’ stores. Likewise, almost every retailer I visit has a serious dated inventory problem that is preventing them from being the best version of themselves.
No matter how smart, intuitive or creative you thought you were when you bought, commissioned or designed that dated product, one of two things is certain. You either miscalculated, no matter how much post-rationalization ensued, or your decision was sound when you bought or made the products, but the world has changed and the product is no longer relevant.
Whether you are a retailer or a wholesaler, the good news is that you don’t have to rely on instinct, intuition, buyers or designers to provide explanations, rationalizations, excuses or promises about what and why. You have the data. If it didn’t sell, it was a bust. If it sold, do it again and again until it stops selling.
Johnny Carson once quipped: “When turkeys mate, they think of swans.” You can think of your products as swans all you want, but if it looks like a turkey, walks like a turkey and gobbles like a turkey …
Since none of us have a crystal ball, we can all agree that getting the product story right remains one of the central challenges in our businesses. It is even more so with retail evolving at the pace it is changing.
That process is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years, but there is one dynamic that is even more challenging, and which continues to haunt retailers and suppliers alike, and that is accepting the realization that some or, in certain cases, many of our products just don’t work anymore. They’re not relevant to today’s consumer.
Dressing it up, repackaging it, or pretending that it is not a problem is not a winning formula. You’ve got to be honest; stop the rationalizations and stop listening to your inner voice, your buyers’ protestations of validity, or those of your designers and production teams.
If it didn’t sell, it’s no good. The quicker you deal with it honestly and proactively, the better your business will be for it.
I know that many will read this column and keep doing the same stuff anyway. I get it.
American journalist Franklin P. Jones famously said, “Honest criticism is hard to take, particularly from a relative, a friend, an acquaintance, or a stranger.” He had a point, and he wasn’t even in the jewelry business.
Peter Smith is president of Vibhor, a public speaker and author of “Sell Something” and “Hiring Squirrels.” He spent 30 years building sales teams in retail and wholesale and he can be contacted at dublinsmith@yahoo.com, peter@vibhorgems.com, or on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
More on Independents
The Latest
GradingOct 24, 2025
DMIA to Hold Diamond Testing Instrument DemoThe workshop will give attendees the chance to try out and ask questions about three different diamond verification instruments.
CrimeOct 24, 2025
Video Emerges of Louvre Jewelry Robbers Fleeing the Scene The footage shows two of the jewelry heist suspects descending from the second floor of the museum and then escaping via scooter.
Brought to you by
Are Earrings an Overlooked Category? What Retailers Need to Know NowAs the holiday season quickly approaches, consider stocking one category that sometimes gets overlooked: earrings.
CollectionsOct 24, 2025
Piece of the Week: Wyld Box Jewelry’s ‘Ray of Light’ EarringsFounder and designer Rosanna Fiedler looked to a vintage Cartier clutch when designing the sunlight-inspired drop earrings.
Weekly QuizOct 16, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
FinancialsOct 23, 2025
Jewelry Sales Resilient Despite Struggles at LVMH, KeringThe luxury conglomerates faced a challenging Q3 amid geopolitical and economic tensions.
SourcingOct 23, 2025
Petra Diamonds Turns to Shareholders to Raise Capital The struggling diamond mining company, which owns the historic Cullinan mine, has launched a rights issue to raise about $25 million.
Brought to you by
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessYou deserve to know what you are selling–to protect your customers as well as your business and your reputation.
WatchesOct 23, 2025
‘Million Dollar Hip Hop Watches’ Recounts Watch HistoryThe book details the journey of watches as symbols of hard-earned success in hip-hop for artists like 2Pac, Jay-Z, and more.
AuctionsOct 23, 2025
Freeman’s | Hindman Names New VP, Senior Specialist for Jewelry & WatchesAlexis Vourvoulis, who most recently worked at Tiffany & Co., brings more than two decades of jewelry experience to her new role.
TrendsOct 22, 2025
The Taylor Swift Effect: Antique Diamonds EditionThe superstar’s August engagement put the stamp of approval on an already hot engagement ring trend.
TrendsOct 22, 2025
Don’t Forget These Diamond Jewelry Trends When Stocking for the HolidaysRetailers should offer classic styles with a twist that are a perfect fit for layered looks, experts say.
AuctionsOct 22, 2025
Pink Diamond, Vanderbilt Jewels to Headline Phillips’ Geneva AuctionThe nearly 7-carat fancy vivid purplish pink diamond could sell for around $9 million.
SourcingOct 22, 2025
In ‘Storied Diamond,’ Jared Jewelers Is Emphasizing the Journey The retailer’s new collection of engagement rings and fashion jewelry is set with natural diamonds that are traceable via blockchain.
CollectionsOct 22, 2025
Tiffany & Co.’s ‘Bird on a Rock’ Finds New PerchChief Artistic Officer Nathalie Verdeille has reimagined the iconic design in both figurative and abstract creations.
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2025
JFC Kicks Off Halloween Costume ChallengeFive dollars buys one vote toward an industry professional you want to see dressed up as a hero, or a villain, this Halloween.
Events & AwardsOct 22, 2025
Hillsborough Antique Show Gets New OwnerRecently acquired by KIL Promotions, the November edition of the public show in San Mateo, California, will be held Nov. 7-9.
GradingOct 21, 2025
GIA Examines Rare Bicolor Pink DiamondThe stone’s two zones, one pink and one colorless, may have formed at two different times, the lab said.
MajorsOct 21, 2025
Pomellato Brings ‘Global Attitude’ to Rodeo Drive FlagshipHollywood glamour meets Milanese sophistication in the design of Pomellato’s new store in Beverly Hills, California.
Lab-GrownOct 21, 2025
Grown Brilliance Opens First FlagshipThe New York City store showcases a chandelier with 1,500 carats of lab-grown diamonds designed by an FIT student.
Events & AwardsOct 21, 2025
‘Douriean Fletcher: Jewelry of the Afrofuture’ Opens at MADThe Museum of Arts and Design's new exhibition features 75 pieces by the designer, best known for her work in the “Black Panther” films.
AuctionsOct 20, 2025
Sotheby's To Auction 10-Carat Vivid Pink DiamondMaking its auction debut, "The Glowing Rose" is expected to fetch $20 million at the November jewelry sale in Geneva.
SourcingOct 20, 2025
2 Mozambique Police Officers Killed at Gemfields’ Ruby MineThey were attacked on Oct. 15, as approximately 40 miners without licenses marched on the mine’s gate.
CrimeOct 20, 2025
See the ‘Priceless’ Jewels Stolen During Daytime Heist at the Louvre It took the masked thieves less than 10 minutes to steal eight irreplaceable jewels from two display cases in the museum’s Apollo Gallery.
SourcingOct 20, 2025
Pristine Gems Names New Director of European SalesGemologist Lauren Gayda has previously worked at The Clear Cut, Taylor & Hart, and Effy Jewelry.
Events & AwardsOct 17, 2025
An Edit of Italian Jewels Is Coming to NYCThe new showcase dedicated to Italian jewelry design is set for Oct. 29-30.
TrendsOct 17, 2025
Piece of the Week: Judi Powers Jewelry’s ‘Stella’ EarringsTake a gaze at the sky with this pair of platinum diamond-set star earrings with blue lace agate drops.
