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Gold expected to sink below $1,200 in Q4
The price of gold sunk to its lowest point of the year earlier this week and is expected to dip below $1,200 at some point in the fourth quarter, pushed down by the strengthening U.S. dollar.
New York--The price of gold sunk to its lowest point of the year earlier this week and is expected to dip below $1,200 at some point in the fourth quarter, pushed down by the strengthening U.S. dollar.
According to a news report on Kitco.com, gold hit $1,208 in early trading Tuesday, recovering throughout the day to close at $1,216.50 on the London PM fix.
After holding steady Wednesday, the price sunk again on Thursday, closing the day at $1,211.75 an ounce.
The average price for gold in September was $1,239.88 an ounce, the lowest monthly average of the year. January came in second at $1,244.80.
London-based analyst Andrew Leyland, the manager of precious metals demand at Thomson Reuters GFMS, said the recent decline in the gold price was expected, given the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and, to a lesser extent, the settling of the market after being shaken up by the crisis in the Ukraine.
He said the average per-ounce price of gold in the fourth quarter is forecast at $1,215, with the price expected to dip below $1,200 at some point.
Thomson Reuters GFMS forecasts gold to end the year averaging $1,270--an increase from its past prediction of $1,243 due to higher-than-expected prices earlier this year--before declining in price in 2015. Leyland said the average forecast price for gold next year is $1,175 an ounce.
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The falling price of gold, improving economic situation and re-stocking by retailers are expected to give the yellow metal a boost at the U.S. registers this holiday season.
“In the U.S., as the prices of gold got very high, manufacturers had to move to these [alternative] products … the consumers weren’t particularly comfortable with this,” Leyland says.
But now, “Those trends have been reversing,” and as the price has come down, retailers that pulled gold jewelry from their showcases now are stocking it again, giving today’s more confident consumers the chance to buy it.
While gold is poised for a solid fourth quarter in terms of consumer demand, one question mark that remains around the metal is how the ongoing “Umbrella Revolution” in Hong Kong will affect its price.
Leyland said some analysts believe the protests could drive up the price, as political crises sometimes do. Others predict it could result in a drop in demand in the world’s largest
market for gold, thus depressing the price.
“The market is still trying to decide what impact it will have. There really hasn’t been any clear direction based on the news coming out of Hong Kong,” he said.
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