SurveysAug 27, 2025
Consumer Confidence Slips in August Amid Job, Income WorriesSurveysSep 15, 2025
Resilient Shoppers to Boost Holiday Retail Sales, Says Deloitte
It’s predicting a rise in retail sales this holiday season despite economic uncertainty and elevated inflation.
In its annual holiday forecast, Deloitte is predicting a 2.9 to 3.4 percent increase in holiday retail sales.
New York—Deloitte is predicting an increase in holiday retail sales this year despite economic uncertainty, with shoppers expected to have a boost in disposable income.
Its retail and consumer products division expects holiday sales to increase between 2.9 and 3.4 percent, totaling between $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion.
Last year, holiday sales were up 4.2 percent to $1.57 trillion in the November 2024 through January 2025 period.
The holiday sales figures are seasonally adjusted and exclude automotive and gasoline sales.
E-commerce sales are expected to grow “at a healthy pace” of between 7 and 9 percent this holiday season, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion.
In the previous holiday period, e-commerce sales were up 8 percent to an estimated $285 billion.
Disposable personal income (DPI), a driver of retail sales, is expected to grow between 3.1 and 5.4 percent over the holiday period, said Deloitte.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending," said Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights.
"While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season."
The holiday season is expected to demonstrate the resilience of consumers despite economic uncertainty, said Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader.
"Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” said Martini.
“Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses."
Related stories will be right here …
Its retail and consumer products division expects holiday sales to increase between 2.9 and 3.4 percent, totaling between $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion.
Last year, holiday sales were up 4.2 percent to $1.57 trillion in the November 2024 through January 2025 period.
The holiday sales figures are seasonally adjusted and exclude automotive and gasoline sales.
E-commerce sales are expected to grow “at a healthy pace” of between 7 and 9 percent this holiday season, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion.
In the previous holiday period, e-commerce sales were up 8 percent to an estimated $285 billion.
Disposable personal income (DPI), a driver of retail sales, is expected to grow between 3.1 and 5.4 percent over the holiday period, said Deloitte.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending," said Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights.
"While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season."
The holiday season is expected to demonstrate the resilience of consumers despite economic uncertainty, said Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader.
"Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” said Martini.
“Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses."
More on Surveys
The Latest
EditorsNov 07, 2025
Piece of the Week: An MVP’s Sapphire Tennis Necklace At the 2025 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto sported a custom necklace made by California retailer Happy Jewelers.
IndependentsNov 07, 2025
Foundrae’s New Palm Beach Location Is a ‘Golden Solarium’The brand’s seventh location combines Foundrae’s symbolic vocabulary with motifs from Florida’s natural surroundings.
FinancialsNov 07, 2025
Watches of Switzerland’s H1 Sales Up 8%The retailer also shared an update on the impact of tariffs on watch customers.
Brought to you by
Jewelers of America Aligns New Mission to Create Meaningful Impact for MembersFrom educational programs, advocacy, and recent MJSA affiliation, Jewelers of America drives progress that elevates businesses of all sizes.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
Pink Tourmaline Bracelet, Emerald Suite Take Top Spectrum Honors Pink and purple stones were popular in the AGTA’s design competition this year, as were cameos and ocean themes.
Weekly QuizNov 06, 2025
This Week’s QuizTest your jewelry news knowledge by answering these questions.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Greenwich St. Jewelers Hosts Raffle Supporting Food RescueAll proceeds from the G. St x Jewel Boxing raffle will go to City Harvest, which works to end hunger in New York City.
IndependentsNov 06, 2025
Cornell’s Jewelers Names New PresidentCourtney Cornell is part of the third generation to lead the Rochester, New York-based jeweler.
SourcingNov 06, 2025
De Beers’ Production, Sales Increase in Q3 De Beers also announced more changes in its upper ranks ahead of parent company Anglo American’s pending sale of the company.
WatchesNov 05, 2025
Shinola President Steps Down Just as He Starts Former Signet CEO Mark Light will remain president of Shinola until a replacement for Ulrich Wohn is found.
AuctionsNov 05, 2025
Taylor Swift’s Engagement Ring Designer Makes Her Auction DebutKindred Lubeck of Artifex has three rings she designed with Anup Jogani in Sotheby’s upcoming Gem Drop sale.
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Pandora Posts Modest Q3 Sales Growth Amid ‘Weak’ Consumer Sentiment The company focused on marketing in the third quarter and introduced two new charm collections, “Pandora Talisman” and “Pandora Minis.”
FinancialsNov 05, 2025
Brilliant Earth’s Q3 Sales Climb 10%The jewelry retailer raised its full-year guidance, with CFO Jeff Kuo describing the company as “very well positioned” for the holidays.
Policies & IssuesNov 04, 2025
Supreme Court to Hear Tariffs Case WednesdayAhead of the hearing, two industry organizations co-signed an amicus brief urging the court to declare Trump’s tariffs unlawful.
MajorsNov 04, 2025
Danny Clark to Become Stuller CEO, Succeeding Matt StullerStuller COO Belit Myers will take on the additional role of president, with all changes effective at the start of 2026.
ColumnistsNov 04, 2025
Peter Smith: What Do Birds Have to Do With the Price of Gold? Smith cautions retailers against expending too much energy on things they can’t control, like the rising price of gold.
TrendsNov 04, 2025
Amanda’s Style File: Fall Colors for November BirthdaysCitrine and topaz are birthstones fit for fall as the leaves change color and the holiday season approaches.
IndependentsNov 04, 2025
Weston Jewelers Heads to Fort LauderdaleThe family-owned jeweler will open its fourth store in Florida in late 2027.
CrimeNov 03, 2025
Men Dressed as Construction Workers Burglarize Jeweler’s Home The NYPD is looking for three men who stole a safe and jewelry valued at $3.2 million from the home of a jeweler in Jamaica Hills, Queens.
MajorsNov 03, 2025
Matthew Rosenheim Takes Over as JA Board ChairThe trade organization also announced its executive committee and five new directors.
CollectionsNov 03, 2025
Muse’s ‘Have a Heart’ Collab Returns, Now With DDGThe “Have a Heart x Diamonds Do Good” collection is championed by model and humanitarian Flaviana Matata and will benefit her foundation.
AuctionsNov 03, 2025
Kashmir Sapphire Ring Tops Christie's Online AuctionThe ring, set with a nearly 17-carat Kashmir cabochon sapphire, sold for $1 million.
TrendsOct 31, 2025
Piece of the Week: A Spinner Fit for ‘Frankenstein’This “Mother Father” spinner necklace from Heavenly Vices Fine Jewelry draws inspiration from Victorian Era jewelry.
CrimeOct 31, 2025
5 More Arrested in Louvre Heist, Jewelry Still Missing The suspects were rounded up in Paris and its suburbs on Wednesday night, but none of the stolen jewels were recovered with them.
Recorded WebinarsOct 31, 2025
Watch: How to Master Google Reviews for Your BusinessExperts share top tips on how to encourage positive reviews and handle negative feedback.
Supplier BulletinOct 30, 2025
Protect Your Customers and Your BusinessSponsored by the Gemological Institute of America
CrimeOct 30, 2025
29-Year-Old Man Charged in Multiple Seattle-Area Smash and Grabs The suspect faces charges in the August robbery of Menashe & Sons Jewelers and is accused of committing smash and grabs at two pawn shops.
